Peoples Bancorp Inc/OH Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Key Takeaways
- Peoples Bancorp Inc reported diluted earnings per share of $0.78 for the second quarter of 2026, which adjusted for one-time items was $0.96, exceeding analyst estimates of $0.85.
- Net interest income increased 3% quarter over quarter, with net interest margin expanding by seven basis points.
- Provision for credit losses declined 51% to $4.7 million compared to the first quarter.
- Loans grew by $51 million or 3% annualized, driven primarily by commercial and industrial loans, premium finance loans, construction loans, and home equity lines of credit.
- Non-interest bearing deposits grew by $7 million or 2% annualized.
- Efficiency ratio improved slightly to 58.3% from 58.6%.
- Book value per share increased to $34.41 from $33.85, an annualized growth rate of 7%, and tangible book value per share grew at an 11% annualized rate to $23.56 from $22.95.
- All regulatory capital ratios improved as earnings outpaced dividends.
- The company sold approximately $135 million of available-for-sale investment securities in early May, resulting in an $8.2 million loss, as part of a strategic plan to remain below $10 billion in assets ahead of the pending Citizens merger.
- Non-interest expenses increased 2% quarter over quarter, including $410,000 of acquisition-related expenses.
- Loan to deposit ratio increased to 91.5% from 88.5% due to loan growth and deposit reductions.
- Nonperforming loans were 0.6% of total loans at quarter end, and criticized loans increased to 4.01% of total loans, mainly related to two commercial credits with no expected charge-offs.
- Delinquency levels improved with 99.1% of loans current at June 30, 2026.
Outlook
- Peoples Bancorp expects positive operating leverage for full year 2026 compared to 2025, excluding non-core expenses and the planned merger.
- Net interest margin is anticipated to be between 4.1% and 4.3% for full year 2026.
- A 35 basis point increase in Federal Reserve rates is expected to improve net interest margin by 6 to 8 basis points for the full year.
- Quarterly fee-based income is expected to range between $28 million and $30 million.
- Quarterly total non-interest expense is guided between $73 million and $75 million for the remaining two quarters of 2026.
- Loan growth is expected toward the low end of the 3% to 5% guided range due to continued paydowns from late 2025 to 2026.
- A slight reduction in net charge-offs is anticipated for 2026 compared to 2025, positively impacting provision for credit losses.
- The company will focus on integration of the Citizens merger and continue developing its core business while monitoring total asset levels relative to the $10 billion threshold.
- Peoples Bancorp remains opportunistic about other potential acquisitions and is engaged in multiple discussions with other institutions.
Guidance
- Net interest margin guidance of 4.1% to 4.3% for full year 2026 excludes the impact of rate changes and assumes a relatively stable rate environment.
- The benefit of a 25 basis point increase in Fed funds rate is quantified as a 6 to 8 basis point improvement in net interest margin but is not included in the base guidance.
- Loan growth is expected at the low end of the 3% to 5% range due to paydowns and muted consumer loan demand.
- Quarterly fee-based income is expected between $28 million and $30 million.
- Quarterly non-interest expenses are expected between $73 million and $75 million for the remaining 2026 quarters.
- Net charge-offs are expected to slightly reduce in 2026 compared to 2025, maintaining an annualized net charge-off rate near 31 basis points.
- Deposit costs are expected to continue to decline modestly, with potential for further repricing of certificates of deposit downward during the year.
Executive Comments
- Tyler Wilcox, President and CEO, highlighted strong second quarter performance exceeding consensus estimates and progress on the pending Citizens merger, targeting early fourth quarter 2026 close and core system conversion in early second quarter 2027.
- Wilcox emphasized strategic patience, disciplined credit philosophy, and selective growth, particularly in commercial and industrial loans.
- Katie Bailey, CFO, noted improved net interest income and margin driven by deposit cost reductions and higher interest income, with accretion income contributing positively though declining year over year.
- Bailey discussed balance sheet restructuring including sale of investment securities to remain under $10 billion in assets ahead of the merger.
- Wilcox described the competitive environment as stable and rational, with no inclination to chase lower quality loans despite competition in commercial real estate.
- Wilcox expressed optimism about cross-selling opportunities with Citizens clients in wealth management and insurance.
- Management confirmed no expected losses from two criticized commercial credits and noted continued improvement in credit quality and charge-offs, especially in the small ticket leasing portfolio.
- Wilcox stated the company remains actively engaged in potential acquisitions and is ready to pursue deals that are strategically compelling.
Q&A
- On margin guidance, management stated the $410 to $430 million net interest income guidance does not include rate move expectations and is based on a relatively stable rate environment.
- Margin upside to reach the higher end of guidance depends on the aggressiveness of repricing certificates of deposit and maintaining sizable deposit balances in interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing accounts.
- The competitive environment for funding is stable and positive, with management continuing to evaluate rate increases on term deposits but not expecting significant moves on shorter-term products.
- Regarding sensitivity to a 25 basis point Fed funds increase, management explained the increased benefit to net interest margin is due to over 50% of the loan portfolio being variable rate, with limited room for deposit cost reductions.
- Two criticized commercial credits were described: one a larger multifamily project with delayed but ongoing economic activity and no expected losses; the other a vehicle floor plan finance expected to be fully paid off by year-end with no losses anticipated.
- Loan paydowns are expected to total about $480 million for full year 2026, with approximately $150 to $200 million remaining in the second half, acting as a headwind to loan growth.
- Loan pipelines are robust, with a shift toward commercial and industrial loans and muted consumer loan demand, particularly indirect auto loans expected to remain flat.
- The securities sold in early May had yields around 2.75%.
- The Citizens merger is on track with no delay, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals, with closing expected early in the fourth quarter 2026.
- Balance sheet restructuring includes selling Citizens' investment portfolio close to deal close and potentially selling remaining portfolio components later in the year depending on asset size and rate environment.
- The margin trajectory is expected to have upward potential due to deposit mix shifts and anticipated growth in mid-ticket leasing assets in early 2027, which have higher yields.
- The leasing portfolio is not highly rate sensitive due to fixed-rate leases with average yields between 18% and 20%, and management does not expect recent rate increases to materially impact credit performance.
- Accretion income contributing to net interest margin is expected to remain stable to decline slightly by about one basis point per quarter.
- Fixed rate loans comprise about 46% to 48% of the portfolio with an average life of 3 to 5 years.
- Net charge-offs are expected to remain consistent with the current annualized rate of 31 basis points, with continued improvement in small ticket leasing charge-offs and consumer loan charge-offs.
- High balance accounts represent about 7% of the portfolio and contributed approximately $1.3 to $1.4 million of the year-to-date charge-offs.
- Competition for quality loans remains rational and selective, with no significant pressure to lower standards despite some increased competition in commercial real estate.
- Deposit costs were around 4.20% at quarter end, with potential for further reductions through repricing of certificates of deposit.
- Commercial real estate paydowns are driven by early sales and refinancing opportunities, but demand remains strong with a pipeline that could lead to stabilization or growth in 2027.
- Management remains engaged in multiple M&A discussions and is ready to pursue strategic acquisitions, exercising strategic patience while focusing on core execution.
Morning, welcome to Peoples Bancorp Inc's conference call. My name is Nick, and I will be your conference facilitator. Today's call will cover a discussion of the results of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. Please be advised that all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer period. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then one on your telephone keypad, and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star and then two. This call is also being recorded. If you object to the recording, please disconnect at this time.
Please be advised that the commentary in this call will contain projections or other future-looking statements regarding Peoples' future financial performance or future events. These statements are based on management's current expectations. The statements in this call, which are not historical fact, are forward-looking statements and involve a number of risks and uncertainties detailed in Peoples' Securities and Exchange Commission filings. Management believes the forward-looking statements made during this call are based on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of their knowledge of Peoples' business and operations. It is possible actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Peoples disclaims any responsibility to update these forward-looking statements after this call, except as may be required by applicable legal requirements. Peoples' second quarter 2026 earnings release and earnings conference call presentation were issued this morning and are available at peoplesbancorp.com under Investor Relations.
A reconciliation of the non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles or GAAP financial measures discussed during this call to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures is included at the end of the earnings release. This call will include about 15 to 20 minutes of prepared commentary, followed by a question-and-answer period, which I will facilitate. An archived webcast of this call will be available on peoplesbancorp.com in the investor relations section for one year. Participants on today's call will be Tyler Wilcox, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Katie Bailey, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, and each will be available for questions following opening statements. Mr. Wilcox, you may begin your conference.
Thank you, Nick. Good morning, everyone, thank you for joining our call today. Earlier, we reported diluted earnings per share of $0.78 for the second quarter. When adjusted for one-time items, our diluted EPS for the quarter was $0.96, which exceeded consensus analyst estimates of $0.85. These one-time items included an $8.2 million loss, which reduced diluted EPS by $0.18 related to the strategic sale of investment securities from our portfolio in preparation for the Citizens merger and our current strategic objective to remain below $10 billion in assets. We also recorded acquisition-related expenses of $410,000 during the second quarter, which reduced our diluted EPS by $0.01. We recently purchased an energy tax credit, lowering our income tax expense by $480,000 in the second quarter and positively impacting diluted EPS by $0.01.
We have several highlights for the second quarter, as many of our performance metrics improved compared to the linked quarter. Our net interest income increased 3%, while our net interest margin expanded seven basis points. Fee-based income grew over $340,000. Provision for credit losses declined 51%. The efficiency ratio improved to 58.3% compared to 58.6%. Our loans grew $51 million, or 3% annualized. Non-interest-bearing deposits grew $7 million or 2% annualized. Our tangible equity to tangible assets ratio increased 34 basis points to 9.25%. Book value per share increased to $34.41 from $33.85, a 7% annualized growth rate. Our tangible book value per share improved at an 11% annualized rate to $23.56 from $22.95, and all of our regulatory capital ratios improved. Our provision for credit losses totaled $4.7 million for the second quarter, a decline of $5 million or 51% compared to the first quarter.
Our allowance for credit losses declined to 1.14% of total loans from 1.16% in March 31st. Our lower provision for credit losses for the quarter was driven by a reduction in net charge-offs, coupled with a stabilization of macroeconomic conditions used within our model. Our annualized quarterly net charge-off rate improved to 31 basis points compared to 40 basis points for the linked quarter. Our indirect consumer loan net charge-offs decreased $751,000, which was driven by lower charge-offs and improved recoveries. We continued to see declines in our small ticket lease charge-offs, which were $3.4 million compared to $3.8 million for the first quarter. These charge-offs contributed 20 basis points to the annualized net charge-off rate for the second quarter.
We have significantly reduced our position in high balance accounts, which totaled $7.2 million at June 30th, and we have limited residual risk remaining within this segment of the small ticket leasing portfolio. For additional details on our small ticket leasing business, please refer to the accompanying slides. Our non-performing loans increased slightly and were 0.6% of total loans at quarter end. Criticized loans grew $50 million compared to March 31st, comprising 4.01% of total loans at quarter end, while classified loans declined $1 million. The increase in criticized loans was mostly related to two commercial credits, one of which was acquired. We do not currently expect any charge-offs to arise from these relationships. As a reminder, our first quarter criticized loans as a percent of total loans was 3.3%, which was lower than our typical historical run rate of around 4%.
Our delinquency levels improved as 99.1% of our loan portfolio was considered current at June 30th, compared to 98.9% at the linked quarter end. Moving on to loan balances, we generated loan growth of $51 million, or 3% annualized. Commercial and industrial loans contributed $43 million of growth, followed by increases in premium finance loans of $37 million, construction loans of $25 million, and home equity lines of credit of $13 million. Overall, our lease balances grew with our mid-ticket leasing business adding over $15 million in balances, partially offset by declines in our small ticket leasing portfolio. At the same time, our other commercial real estate loan balances declined $58 million as we experienced the elevated first half payoffs we had anticipated. I will now turn the call over to Katie for a discussion of our financial performance.
Thanks, Tyler. For the second quarter, we saw improvement in our net interest income, which grew $2.3 million, while our net interest margin expanded seven basis points. A reduction in our deposit costs benefited both net interest income and margin for the second quarter. Accretion income totaled $1.2 million compared to $1.3 million for the first quarter, contributing five basis points and six basis points to net interest margin, respectively. For the first six months of 2026, net interest income improved $10.3 million, or 6%, while net interest margin expanded six basis points. Our deposits cost discipline, along with higher interest income, contributed to the increase. Accretion income totaled $2.4 million compared to $6.1 million for 2025, contributing six basis points and 15 basis points to net interest margin, respectively.
As far as our balance sheet structure, at this time, we are positioned to benefit more from a rising rate environment. A falling rate environment would cause a nominal reduction in our net interest income. However, rate uncertainty validates our relatively neutral position. As it relates to our fee-based income, we had growth of over $340,000 compared to the linked quarter. We had improvements in the majority of our fee-based income lines, which more than offset the decline in insurance income driven by the annual performance-based insurance commissions received in the first quarter of each year. For the first six months of 2026, fee-based income grew $3 million, mostly due to higher lease income and trust and investment income. Our non-interest expenses were up 2% compared to the linked quarter, which included $410,000 of acquisition-related expenses, the majority of which contributed to the increase in professional fees.
For the first six months of 2026, non-interest expenses were up 2%. The growth was driven by higher operating lease expense, which corresponds to our fee-based lease income, as well as salaries and employee benefits costs, and data processing and software expense. For the first half of 2026, we have recorded $426,000 of acquisition-related expenses. Our reported efficiency ratio was 58.3% for the second quarter and 58.6% for the linked quarter. The improvement in our efficiency ratio was driven by higher revenue compared to the first quarter. For the first six months of 2026, our reported efficiency ratio was 58.4%, compared to 60% for the prior year, and was also driven by higher revenue.
Looking at our balance sheet at quarter end, our loan to deposit ratio increased to 91.5%, compared to 88.5% at March 31st as we had loan growth for the second quarter, coupled with a reduction in deposits. Our investment portfolio as a percent of total assets declined to 19.1% at June 30th, compared to 20.3% at the linked quarter end. The decline was driven by the sale of approximately $135 million of available-for-sale investment securities, resulting in a loss of $8.2 million for the second quarter. These sales were part of our current plan to stay below $10 billion in total assets and restructure our portfolio in conjunction with the pending Citizens merger. Our core deposit balances, which exclude brokered CDs, declined $155 million compared to March 31st. As expected, we had seasonal decreases in our governmental deposits, which were down $87 million.
We also had reductions in our interest-bearing demand accounts of $17 million. During the second quarter, we also had reductions of $92 million in retail CDs. However, we improved our deposit costs by six basis points compared to the linked quarter. These declines were partially offset by an increase of $37 million in money markets and $7 million in non-interest-bearing deposits. Our demand deposits as a percent of total deposits grew to 36% at June 30th, compared to 35% at the linked quarter end. Our non-interest-bearing deposits to total deposits ratio was flat at 21% for both June 30th and March 31st. As it relates to our capital levels, all of our regulatory capital ratios improved compared to the linked quarter end as earnings outpaced dividends. I will now turn the call back over to Tyler for his closing comments.
Thank you, Katie. We continue to make progress with the pending Citizens merger and are excited about the opportunity to bring our associates together. We have spent a considerable amount of time within the footprint interacting with associates and hosting meetings to discuss our future. We are coordinating processes between teams, both on the front lines and operationally, to ensure a seamless transition. We are awaiting regulatory and Citizens shareholder approvals for the merger but are anticipating a close date of early in the fourth quarter of 2026. As with recent bank acquisitions, the core system conversion will be at a later date, which we are targeting to take place early in the second quarter of 2027. At the same time, we will continue to be opportunistic about other potential acquisitions.
Moving on to our performance expectations for the full year of 2026, excluding the impact of non-core expenses and the planned merger, we expect to achieve positive operating leverage for 2026 compared to 2025. We anticipate our net interest margin will be between 4.1% and 4.3% for the full year of 2026. A 25-basis-point increase in rates from the Federal Reserve is expected to result in a six to eight basis point improvement in our net interest margin for the full year. We believe our quarterly fee-based income will range between $28 million and $30 million. We expect quarterly total non-interest expense to be between $73 million and $75 million for the two remaining quarters of 2026. We believe our loan growth will come in towards the low end of our guided range of 3% to 5% due to the continued movement of paydowns from late 2025 to 2026.
We anticipate a slight reduction in our net charge-offs for 2026 compared to 2025, which we expect to continue to positively impact provision for credit losses, excluding any changes in the economic forecasts. For the remainder of the year, we will focus on the integration of the Citizens merger, along with continuing to develop our core business while closely monitoring our total asset levels in relation to the $10 billion threshold. As we mentioned before, we continue to have diverse and potentially fruitful conversations with other institutions. Our lines of business work together to deliver a client experience unlike many institutions, and we see opportunities arise because of our unique market offerings. For the clients and associates of Citizens, we are excited to share our deep bench of experienced professionals who will bring access to our vast array of products and services.
This concludes our commentary, and we will open the call for questions. Once again, this is Tyler Wilcox, and joining me for the Q&A session is Katie Bailey, our Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call back into the hands of our call facilitator. Thank you. Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.
To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble the roster. The first question will come from Jeff Rulis with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead. Good morning.
This is Ryan Payne on for Jeff Rulis today.
Morning. Starting on the margin, does that 4.10%-4.30% for the full year bake in any rate move expectations?
It does not. It's a relatively stable rate environment.
Got it. Okay. Maybe bigger picture, what would have to happen for the margin to end the year at the higher end of that range?
I think the aggressiveness by which we continue to reprice our CDs, and the ability to maintain a sizable deposit book in the non-interest-bearing or the interest-bearing accounts. I think that'll be heavily influencing, as you saw the outcome in this quarter in the margin. I think that'll have a heavy influence in the margin going forward.
Understood. I guess going off on deposits there, some seasonality it sounds like, but how would you describe the competitive environment for funding now, and would you expect to increase rates to maintain or grow deposits this year?
I would say that the deposit competition remains relatively stable. I think it's competitive. It's not increasingly so relative to what we've been seeing the last few months. I think we will continue to evaluate the term of rate increases. I don't know that the rack rates on the shorter-term products will move significantly, but I think with rate expectations as they are and as they evolve over time, we'll continue to evaluate the term at which we're raising rates.
Okay. Thanks. That's all for me.
Thank you. The next question will come from Brendan Nosal with Baird Group.
Please go ahead. Hi, this is Anira on for Brendan.
First question, kind of looping back to the NIM and looking on slide 15. We can see you increased your sensitivity to a plus 25 increase for the Fed funds from three to four basis points previously to six to eight basis points currently. Can you just unpack that change a bit and dig into the drivers behind that?
Yeah. I just want to be clear. The projection or the guidance of 410 to 430 is a steady rate environment. It does not include an increase or a decrease in rates. What we have been doing in the past couple of quarters is quantifying if rates do go down by 25 basis points, or if the Fed moves by 25 basis points, we've been quantifying what that would do on an annual basis to our margin. Given when we were drafting this, the expectation was more likely for a rate increase than a rate cut, we quantified the upside potential of a 25-basis-point increase. That's not baked into that 410 to 430. That's just articulating what the benefit would be if that situation unfolds. I think it's largely the asset. Over 50% of our loan portfolio is variable rate.
I think that's influencing the benefit on the upside, and given our deposit costs, as you can see in the release and in the presentation, there's not as much room to go down in that avenue as there is to go up on the variable rate loans.
Thank you. Just one follow-up looping into credit. In your opening remarks, you talked about those two commercial credits. Is there any other color that you can provide on them?
Sure. This is Tyler. A couple of thoughts. Two completely different credits, first of all, no commonality between them. One is a larger multifamily project that is in footprint somewhat anchored to a related kind of large economic project that is somewhat delayed but we believe will continue. Hence the comment that we don't expect any kind of losses over the long term in that project. The other is a vehicle floor plan finance that we expect to be fully paid off by the end of the year. Again, no losses expected and no pattern there. Just kind of a reversion to the mean is what I would say with respect to the criticized and our kind of historical averages.
Perfect. Thank you. That's all my questions.
Thank you. Thank you. The next question will come from Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James.
Please go ahead. Hey, good morning, Tyler.
Good morning, Katie. This is Tim D'Alessio for Danny. Hope you're doing well. Hey, Tim.
Hey, Tim. Good to hear from you.
Hey, you as well. Just starting off on loan growth here. Loan growth was obviously impacted by the CRE paydown activity, but otherwise growth is pretty good outside of that. Just curious if you can help us think about the expectations you guys have for payoff activity in the back half of the year and maybe how loan pipelines are shaping up.
Sure thing. Thanks for the question. A couple thoughts on the expected paydowns. We guided last quarter that we expected about $480 million in payoffs for the full year and estimated that we would come in at about two-thirds to three-quarters of that in the first half. Where we came out was about $300 million in the first half. We still expect the full year to fall somewhere around that original estimate. Call it anywhere from $150 million-$200 million for the remainder of the year. That certainly is a bit of a headwind.
You combine that a little bit with a good, I would say, robust pipeline that's kind of competing with that and a little bit of a remixing over the last multiple quarters into the C&I business away from the CRE business because of the increased paydowns in CRE is where we land there at that kind of lower end of the guide because the payoffs amortization. The final kind of factor I would add would be that in the consumer lending, we're seeing kind of muted demand. We expect kind of indirect auto to be largely flat throughout the year and not experience growth as well. Those would be the kind of puts-and-takes factors that are getting us out there with respect to the loan growth.
I appreciate all that color, Tyler. Katie, maybe one for you. Just a point of clarification on the prepositioning during the quarter. Hoping you can help us out, tell us when those securities were sold during the quarter, and kind of what the yields were on the securities that were sold.
Yes, they were sold in early May. The yields were about 275.
Okay. I appreciate that. Then Tyler, maybe one last one for you. As you've gotten deeper here into integration planning with Citizens, just curious if there are any aspects of the franchise that have stood out to you or any incremental areas where you believe Peoples kind of enhance the franchise further since we last spoke in April?
Yeah. Since we last spoke, the story is really, it is what we thought it was. That's why we're very excited about adding it. The strong deposit base, good, loyal clients and communities that we do well in, and an opportunity. We've added, for example, some wealth management professional capabilities in those markets and are already seeing some benefits there. We're very strong in insurance in Eastern Kentucky and bringing to bear those introductions to our clients and kind of the beginnings of the cross-pollination that will take place over the coming months and years. So we're very excited about those two core businesses of ours, particularly the investments in insurance and the opportunity to provide those to the Citizens clients. Everything is according to plan.
I will note, just since you asked about Citizens and a couple of the early reaction notes, I think commented that the expected closing was delayed. We don't view it as delayed, and if we gave that impression, I just wanted to clear that up. I think we had guided second half in last quarter's call. We are still right on schedule and everything, of course, is pending regulatory approval and shareholder approval. We believe we're right on track with where we expect it to be.
Okay, terrific. Well, thanks for that point of clarification and color there, Tyler. I'll step back now. Thank you.
The next question will come from Tim Switzer with KBW. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning.
Thank you for taking my questions.
Hey, good morning. Good morning, Tim.
I have a follow-up on the balance sheet restructuring. I think you guys previously talked about selling about $560 million of balances, including Citizens portfolio. Should we expect more sales to occur before the deal closes? If it's after the deal closes, what's the timing we should expect for that?
Just as a reminder, about half of that was the sale of what we would be acquiring from Citizens in their investment portfolio, and then about half of it was selling some of our portfolio, and you've seen us sell about half of our contribution of that. We would anticipate selling the Citizens portion as close to close as possible. We will continue to evaluate the sale of the remaining component of our portfolio. We may do something in the third, but it likely wouldn't be until the fourth, and it'll all just be dependent on where we are from an asset size and where the rate environment is at the time.
Okay. Do you still see a way for that to be accretive to NII by pairing it with the offloading of, I assume brokered deposits, kind of like what we saw this quarter?
Yes. I think that's right. An overnight position as well, once brokered's completely eliminated or reduced.
Okay. That's helpful. Putting Citizens aside for a minute, how do you see the trajectory of the margin over the rest of this year and early 2027? Assuming there's no rate movements at all, do you think you can continue to squeeze out a little bit of margin improvement going forward?
Yeah, I think there continues to be some mix shift in the deposit portfolio. I think there's upward potential.
The only thing I would add that's had some potential upside as well is we've been decreasing the small ticket leasing portfolio. We expect kind of in early 2027 for that to begin to turn around and see growth there and higher yielding assets there have the potential to impact NIM as well.
Okay. How do you see the rate environment, especially with the rates moving higher over the last few months? How do you see that impacting the credit performance of the leasing portfolio?
Yeah. I think it depends. I think more impact potentially is we've weathered, I would say we've weathered the tariff kind of questions. We've seemed to have weathered the kind of fuel price increases, which this portfolio specifically is a little bit more small business oriented. Now recall that these are fixed rate leases in this business. The term is also not incredibly long. We think there's limited credit risk there overall. I don't think a quarter or a couple of rate increases will be a meaningful change. Recall that that portfolio is already kind of at a gross origination yield of between 18% and 20%. They're not particularly rate sensitive given the originations being where they are.
Okay, got it. That's super helpful. Thank you, guys. Thank you.
Thanks, Tim. The next question will come from Nathan Race with Piper Sandler.
Please go ahead. Hey, this is Adam Kroll on for Nate.
Good morning, Tyler and Katie.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.
No problem. Hello. Maybe a question for Katie.
Just going back to the margin, I think last quarter's call, you mentioned an additional 15 to 20 basis points opportunity still in potential NIM expansion for 2027 post the security sale and borrowings pay down. I guess, is that still the right way to think about it for 2027? Just any additional color there?
Yes, I think so. That was in conjunction with the Citizens acquisition, I think, collectively, which was inclusive of this securities trade that we've been talking about. We just preemptively did a portion of our sale in the second quarter. Yes, that's still accurate. Got it.
Could you remind us what you have in terms of fixed rate loans that would be set to reprice higher over the next 12 months or so?
Our fixed rate book is about 46%-48% of the portfolio. Average three to five? Five.
I think average life three to five years. Yeah. Okay. Maybe moving to the charge-off guide for a slight reduction for 2026.
I was wondering if you could quantify the slight reduction guide a bit further. Is the expectation that charge-offs remain around this 30 to 40 basis points range for the back half of the year?
Yeah, I think your slight may be a little bit understating it at this point. We were pleased with moving to kind of an annualized rate of 31 basis points. I think you'll see consistency. We talked for a while about the major component of that being the small ticket leasing, and that is 20 basis points of our 31 for this quarter. We talked about for the last year, kind of the plateau in the second half kind of coming down, and we still expect that, and maybe are seeing that happen a little bit earlier than we had expected, which is a good sign. I think when you compare us year-over-year we expect this trend to continue for the remainder of the year. Continued strength in the commercial, which doesn't really have much charge-off to speak of.
You saw consumer come down because the first quarter is generally, historically our larger charge-off quarter in that space. Small ticket leasing continues to decline, so we are optimistic.
Got it. Thanks for that, Tyler. On Northstar, I was wondering if you had the charge-off contribution from the high balance accounts during the quarter.
High balance accounts specifically, if you give me one sec to shuffle some papers, I can get that for you. First of all, the high balance accounts at this point comprise about 7% of the total portfolio. Their contribution to the losses was about $1.3 million-$1.4 million of the $9 million in charge-offs or so. Excuse me. Of the year-to-date charge-offs, not quarterly charge-offs.
Okay. Got it. Thanks for taking my questions.
Thank you. The next question will come from Daniel Cardenas with Brean Capital.
Please go ahead. Morning, guys.
Morning, Dan. Hey, Dan. Thanks for all the color so far on the margin and all the moving pieces.
It sounds like deposit competition is still relatively sane and maybe kind of stable-ish, but can you provide some color on the lending side? What's competition for the better quality loans looking like? Would you say that the market is still, or competition is still rational coming here into three Q?
Thanks, Dan. I would say it's largely rational. I would say there is a small element of the pressure on balances of, particularly in the commercial real estate space of increased competition. As we've said on this call before, we are not inclined to chase stupid, and we'll be happy to trade slightly lower balances for sticking to our knitting on pricing. It is competitive for quality assets. We're not seeing the lemmings going over the cliff to any degree, just to be very clear. We are scrutinizing deals that we want, being competitive where we are. There are also maybe a bit fewer projects in general out there. Again, not any major trends that I would identify at this point. I don't know if that helps.
Very helpful. Thank you. Just looking at your margin here for the quarter and accretion was about five basis points contribution to the margin. Absent Citizens is the expectation that yield accretion continues to give you about five basis points for the next couple of quarters?
I think it starts to come down a basis point a quarter, roughly. I mean, stable to down a basis point I would say. It's in the range of five basis points. Yes. Okay. All right. All my other questions have been asked and answered.
Thank you, guys. Thanks, Dan.
Again, if you have a question, please press star and then one. The next question will come from Matthew Breese with Stephens Inc.. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. Morning. First for me, this topic has been talked about a couple times, but Katie, just curious, what was the spot cost of deposits and the spot NIM at the end of the quarter?
I guess I'm curious, I'm going to ask it a different way, how you feel about your ability to maintain or further lower deposit costs from here. Is that realistic? I think it is.
I think we were right around the 420 range for the spot at the end of June. There is some nuance in each month, as you might expect. I do think maybe not as much expansion per quarter, I think there continues to be some room to reprice some of our CDs downward as we proceed through the year.
Okay. We're not done yet on deposit costs.
I don't think so. Tyler, you had mentioned some of the dynamics within commercial real estate.
It's been down for three quarters in a row. Do you think we can start to see some commercial real estate balance stabilization by the end of the year, and what is your expectation on when you might be able to show some growth there?
Yeah. First of all, as I mentioned earlier, I don't mind our kind of mix shift towards C&I. As you're aware, we've kind of been proud of our ability to be selective in the commercial real estate space and our lower portion of CRE to risk-based capital that I think is now around 178%. That's kind of been a strategic goal. The pipeline is strong in that area. Recall part of what is driving these payoff pressures is largely two things. One, earlier sales of many of these properties. It shows there's still high demand in the space. Two, kind of the permanent market refinancing opportunities. As I look at our pipeline and as we evaluate that, we do think there is still strong demand.
I could see us going into the 2027 with stabilized to potentially increasing over the coming year. I am very comfortable with where we are at and where that mix shift is, and it gives us the ability to be very competitive and price right and select the deals that make the most sense for our credit philosophy, which is to be highly selective.
Got it. Okay. Last one for me is, obviously there's a lot on your plate with the upcoming deal close, given the balance sheet size dynamics, I would imagine that you remain engaged in additional M&A conversations. Would just love to hear about how those conversations are going and whether or not you see opportunity on that front in kind of the near to medium term. Thank you. Absolutely. Thank you.
One, we remain ready, willing, and able to do additional deals, and we feel very comfortable. I'm not announcing an announcement, but just to say we would be very comfortable in making an announcement should something materialize that we find strategically compelling. Engaged in a lot of discussions, I hope they are fruitful. I believe that there are counterparties out there that are interested in the story and in the upside of a better future together. We continue to engage in those conversations and hope that some of them will bear some fruit here. In the meantime, as we have for call it three years plus now, exercising strategic patience and focusing on executing in the core, which I think this quarter really demonstrates as this year as a whole. We are ready to go and optimistic.
I'll leave it there. Thanks. Thank you so much. At this time, there are no further questions.
Sir, do you have any closing remarks?
Yes. I want to thank everyone for joining our call this morning. Please remember that our earnings release and a webcast of this call, including our earnings conference call presentation, will be archived at peoplesbancorp.com under the investor relations section. Thank you for your time and have a great day.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation.
