[MARKET ANALYSIS] G10s quiet after mostly gaining post-FOMC; BoE ahead

G10s are mostly weaker against the Buck. Antipodeans outperform, European EMs benefit from softer TTF and other majors are quiet.

USD is firmer against most G10 peers and resides in a 100.77-101.07 range as it attempts to claw back some FOMC-induced losses from Wednesday. To recap, the treasury curve steepened aggressively, and USD saw broad weakness as markets unwound a c. 33% probability of tightening. The driver today will likely be the PCE and GDP metrics due at 13:30 BST, alongside the familiar geopolitics (which will likely have less of an impact today). Support is below at 100.50 (alongside the 50DMA).

After gaining against the Buck on Wednesday, EUR is a touch weaker, but off worst levels as the dust settles post-FOMC; the pair currently residing at the top of yesterday's range around 1.1450. German prelim GDP was released alongside State CPIs, the latter which indicates the mainland figure will likely be in line with expectations. German GDP surpassed expectations, before the EZ figure also printed firmer. EUR saw a modest bounce on the German data points, sufficient to lift the pair above 1.1450. EUR will likely be dictated by the Buck once again this afternoon, into tier-1 US data (see above). Levels include the 21DMA below @1.1418, and the 50DMA above at 1.1483.

Focus for GBP today on the BoE meeting and MPR. The bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%, justified as the BoE retains policy space and neither the energy or second-round effect criteria are met beyond scenario A. A 7-2 vote split is the consensus, though there is a possibility Mann could also join the hawks. Into the meeting, markets imply just 2bps, or an 8% probability of tightening. Should the hawkish risks materialise, Cable could push towards 21, 50 and 100 DMAs at 1.3380/60/90 respectively.

Antipodeans are the sole currencies firmer against the Buck, with encouraging Australian Building Approvals and New Zealand Business Confidence likely giving a hand. Kiwi is the outperformer after finding a bid above 0.58, while Aussie fails to benefit to the same extent, but remains supported at 0.6950.