Expand Energy Corporation Common Stock Q2 2026 Earnings Call

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Expand Energy Corporation's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's opening remarks, we will have a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Brittany Raiford. Ma'am, please begin. Thank you, Howard.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today to discuss Expand Energy's 2026 second quarter financial and operating results. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review our press release and updated investor presentation that we posted to our website yesterday. During this morning's call, we'll make forward-looking statements, which consist of statements that cannot be confirmed by reference to existing information, including statements regarding our beliefs, goals, expectations, forecasts, projections, and future performance, and the assumptions underlying such statements. Please note that there are a number of factors that will cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements, including the factors identified and discussed in our press release yesterday and on other SEC filings. Please recognize that except as required by law, we undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on such statements.

We may also refer to some non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparisons across periods and with peers. For any non-GAAP measure, we use a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure that can be found on our website. With me on the call today are Michael Wichterich, Josh Viets, Marcel Teunissen, and Dan Turco. Mike will give a brief overview of our results, and then we'll open up the line for Q&A. With that, thank you again. I'll now turn over the conference to Mike.

Thanks, Brittany. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. It's now been six months since taking the role of interim CEO. I told you last quarter that I couldn't be more optimistic about the future of Expand. Today's quarterly results are a testament to why I was optimistic then and why my optimism today continues to grow. Let's talk about why. First, the Expand team has earned a well-deserved reputation for operational excellence and execution. This quarter was no exception. Our Southwest App team had a particularly good quarter. The team has consistently delivered tremendous operating results conducted with a safety-first mindset. Our employee and contractor safety is job number one. Second, we embrace that to be a great company, we need to be a disciplined allocator of capital. This year has been a clear reflection of that commitment.

In the first quarter, our free cash flow surged as a result of high natural gas prices. We were able to capture this volatility and prudently chose to pay down $1.3 billion in gross debt. This was intentionally done to put us in a position to capitalize on times when commodity prices are soft. Prop month natural gas prices dipped after the first quarter, and we were prepared to act decisively when our stock price dislocated from our mid-cycle price view of $3.50-$4.00. As our peer companies focused on paying off low-interest debt, we repurchased $850 million, or 4% of our outstanding shares. This is a great example of how we allocate capital to generate superior returns through the cycle.

Our board also sees the value of this type of thinking and has authorized an additional $1 billion for future buybacks so that we can continue to act decisively when market conditions dictate. Third, we believe an upstream company must replace and build its drilling inventory to be successful over the long term. Organic leasing, when done well, is the most accretive and effective way to extend inventory. This year, we have been active in each of our operating areas, adding high-quality locations that are either accretive to our near-term drilling plans or give us the ability to grow production when natural gas prices rise. We also believe in inorganic transactions. However, I will remind you, our bar is high. Any transaction must do more than add scale. It must create long-term strategic value and position the company to become something stronger and more impactful over time.

These opportunities are rare and must meet our non-negotiables. Fourth, we are positioning Expand for the long term as North America's leading integrated natural gas company. In February, I mentioned on our earnings call that we had a renewed focus on our Marketing & Commercial efforts. We laid out a three-part framework. 1. Facilitating and capturing new demand. 2. Reaching premium markets. 3. Monetizing volatility. In the first quarter, we announced the LNG transaction with Delfin, extending our reach globally and advancing our goals on both capturing new demand and reaching premium markets. The team is hard at work on additional transactions. We look forward to sharing details as they're finalized. On Monday, we announced the purchase of Twin Eagle, which immediately accelerates our Marketing & Commercial strategy and puts us in the driver's seat to reach premium markets and monetize volatility.

Before I talk how Twin Eagle is a game-changer for Expand, I would like to welcome the Twin Eagle employees to the Expand team. Jeremy Davis, CEO of Twin Eagle, and his team have built an incredible business and brand over the past 15 years plus. We believe this acquisition is a transformational opportunity to unite Expand's industry-leading diverse supply and financial strength with Twin Eagle's premier physical marketing platform, creating the leading integrated natural gas company. We will soon be the undisputed largest independent natural gas producer and leading gas marketer, scaling our business from a regional player to a coast-to-coast heavyweight across the U.S. and Canada, reaching customers that none of our domestic peers can touch. Rather than relying on directional commodity price exposure, Twin Eagle's business is built around linking customers to physical supply by using transportation and storage assets to create value.

The model is unique, repeatable, and scalable. It is an origination and optimization company benefiting from customer relationships with an average retention rate of 90%. This provides Twin Eagle with lower earnings volatility on their base business while preserving the upside during supply disruption events. Simply put, this repeatability, which starts with deep customer relationships, is why they have been profitable every year since inception. Together, we are strategically positioned to benefit from a new era of demand pulled from power, industrial, and LNG consumers across North America. We will more effectively monetize regional volatility and reach high-value markets, providing us with a unique value creation opportunity that will differentiate us from our peers. We expect Twin Eagle will contribute more than $200 million of EBITDA in year one and grow to $350 million per year as we capture synergies over the next two years.

Important to note, our estimates assume normal market conditions and do not reflect the potential upside associated with periods of elevated volatility. With our confidence in this deal, we are raising our incremental marketing commercial free cash flow target to $750 million. We look forward to working with Jeremy and the entire Twin Eagle team to maximize the value of every molecule. Finally, before taking your questions, a quick update on the CEO search. We originally said that we expect the process to take six to nine months. We are at the six-month mark, and we will meet our goal. In the last earnings call, we told you that Expand team would not stop focusing on creating long-term value for our shareholders during the CEO's transition. I hope today you will see that we were serious.

If there is one thing I have learned about the Expand team, it is that it plays to win. We attack our business with urgency, maintain a disciplined approach to value creation, and keep our promises. I could not be more impressed with the enthusiasm and professionalism of this team nor optimistic for the company's future. We welcome your questions. Operator, please open the line.

Yes, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, simply press star one one again. Again, if you have a question or comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question or comment comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan. Your line is open, sir.

good morning, Mike and team. Mike, I wanted to get your thoughts on how you think the Twin Eagle acquisition aligns with Expand's overall strategy.

Thank you for the question, Arun. We said in my first call here in February that we're going to focus on our M&C business, that focus has turned into integrated gas company, that is the bigger vision on how to go customer back because we think this is a demand pull future as opposed to a supply future. If you think that's the number one goal is to get customers, Twin Eagle has that. It has over 1,000 customers. That business is based on those relationships. They've had them for eight years, we know it's repeatable. If you think about integrated gas supply, we believe by having a national footprint, 1,000 customers, Twin Eagle is a perfect fit for us.

Great. Just my follow-up, Mike, just in terms of the broader landscape, one of your peers in the Appalachia Basin, which also has an integrated model, similar scale, has been able to ink several natural gas supply deals with utilities, power projects for data centers, et cetera. I want to get your thoughts on whether you view the Twin Eagle acquisition with your expanded transportation portfolio, customer intimacy. Do you view this as an enabler to get supply deals for Expand called over the line?

I absolutely do think that. Of course, we have a large position in Appalachia. We will absolutely look for deals there as well. What Twin Eagle gives us, it gives us the whole United States as our playground. There are utilities all over the country near population centers who are building data centers. We don't think data centers will only be in the East. We think they'll be all over. Twin Eagle already has long relationships with utility companies. They will ultimately be the big winner here, in my opinion. The footprint is what will make us special.

Great. Thank you. Thank you.

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Josh Silverstein from UBS. Mr. Silverstein, your line is now open.

Hey, thanks. Good morning, everybody. Still got a question on capital allocation between the balance sheet and shareholder returns. You clearly bought back a significant amount of stock and just authorized another $1 billion buyback, now you're buying Twin Eagle with the balance sheet and cash on hand. How do you flex between the two going forward?

Hey, good morning, Josh. Marcel here, taking your question there. When you think of the overall capital allocation framework, our number 1 priority is to reinvest in our ongoing business, keep that engine going. That's our D&C capital. Our second priority is dividends. We have a good and healthy dividend, we continue to pay that. The third priority is our balance sheet, we've made great strides in that in Q1. That kind of allowed us to have some flexibility as we went into the second quarter, as Mike talked about. The remaining cash we'll allocate to the highest kind of returning opportunity that we have, and that could include buying back our own stock that is competing with other opportunities that we have.

Specifically to the money spent on Twin Eagle, it is a big amount, but for our company, we can absorb this within the facilities we have. We have ample liquidity. I expect that over the next quarter, we can do both balance sheet and looking at other opportunities that make good returns for shareholders as well.

Got it. Maybe sticking on the cash flow statement, the CapEx trajectory was obviously a bit elevated this quarter. The 3Q guide was higher versus expectations. Can you just talk about the trajectory of this, maybe into what's implied for the fourth quarter, and how much of it was service inflation versus just a good opportunity to step up the leasing efforts? Because it looks like you added a lot in the Haynesville and Appalachia.

Good morning, Josh. We would expect that the capital will tail off as we go through the second half of the year. The first thing I would just note is that we do have a little bit less D&C activity in the second half of the year, primarily across our Appalachia business. On the second quarter specifically, we continue to find great opportunities to go out and add organic leases. This is, of course, we're able to go leverage our operational and subsurface expertise, identify opportunities to get in early at a lower cost, which simply preserves our ability to generate premium returns off of that acreage in the long run. In addition, we like the acreage that we're getting because it's also providing real growth optionality for us as a company, as we're looking at a pretty significant demand growth as we exit the decade.

There has been an element of realized inflation in the second quarter, just depending on where we see crude prices go, that will impact what we pay for fuel. That's all accounted for within our full year guide. The fourth quarter as a whole, also, I would just note that you do tend to see leasing activity ramp down in the fourth quarter. That's really just, you just simply lose working days with the holidays, that does tend to lend itself to lower overall spend. I would just note that we want to continue to be opportunistic. Financially, we're strong enough to be active out acquiring organic leases. We think it's a fantastic investment for the company.

If we continue to find these new opportunities, that would end up pushing us towards the higher end of our capital range for the full year.

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Charles Meade from Johnson Rice. Mr. Meade, your line is now open.

Yes. Good morning, Mike, to you and your team there. I want to ask another question on Twin Eagle. Maybe there's two parts to this. Can you describe for us what relationships you may have had with Twin Eagle in the past? For example, whether they were marketing some of your volumes or if there's any history between Expand and Twin Eagle. Also, when you look at the assets you acquired, of course, the people are a big part of it, but one of the biggest tangible pieces, it seems to me, is this 44 Bcf of storage. I wonder if you could talk about how you valued that, whether you valued it separately or whether it was just part of the whole in the overall evaluation.

Sure. Thank you, Charles, for the question. Of course, Twin Eagle has actually been around a long time. I mean, this is the original Dynegy team that spun out. They've been doing this exact business for 30 years. The Twin Eagle team today, of course, is 15 in their latest iteration. Fun, at one point in time, Chesapeake was one of the equity owners of Twin Eagle, got sold in the past. We've had a long relationship with them just in general. We don't sell a lot of gas to them. Historically, there's not a lot of overlap. They focus a little bit more downstream from where most of our sales have been, which is what we like. We want to extend our reach, and they provide that reach. Known them for a long time.

We have a perfect culture fit in that, of course, they're here in our Spring complex. They're actually in our complex, they'll be moving to our building ultimately, but same type of people. Their kids go to the same school that our employees go to, it's a great cultural fit as well. Storage specifically, we thought about storage as how do they achieve their returns, not specifically the storage assets themselves. It's how did that translate into earnings and their ability to have repeat earnings. That's the same way we looked at their FT and their AMA. It's like, what do they do with it more than exactly that specific asset.

That is great detail. Thank you, Mike. My follow-up is perhaps for Josh. The 33,000 acres that you guys picked up, I think it was in Sabine, in Natchitoches Parish in Louisiana in the Natchitoches Fault Zone. Can you talk about what you're seeing differently or what you're doing differently that now makes that acreage prospective for you, where presumably, since it was sitting there unleased and open, it wasn't prospective for you or other Haynesville players so far?

Hey, Charles. Thanks for the question. I think this really just comes down to, you think about the Southwestern merger, us being in a position to deliver a tremendous amount of synergies through this continued operational excellence. I think we continue to establish ourselves in the Haynesville as the best operator in these deep, high-pressure gas wells. That's exactly what we find in what we refer to as the NFZ extension. We are stepping down deeper into the Haynesville and Bossier. You end up moving down another 2,000 feet in true vertical depth. We are made to go operate and develop these deep, complex, high-pressure reservoirs. We also just have a ton of subsurface information that we've built up over the last decade and a half of operating in the basin.

That just puts us in a technical and operational advantage to get into these plays early, before others are fully valuing it. Go in this case, acquiring over 100 locations at less than a half a million dollars a location. We feel really great about this position that we're building. Our goal is to always look at rock in a way that, maybe today it looks like tier 2, and we're going to go make it tier 1. We see that same type of upside with this opportunity here.

Great. Thank you, Josh. Thank you.

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Matthew Portillo from TPH. Mr. Portillo, your line is now open.

Good morning, all. I just wanted to start out on the Gulf Coast, specifically hearing more from the industry around Southeast demand from utilities and the interplay between that demand pull and the startup of LNG facilities, that's really starting to create an interesting dynamic. I'm curious if you might be able to comment on how you all are seeing the marketing opportunity set evolve as it relates to utilities. Does this potentially down the road between utilities and LNG create a premium market strategy for you all in terms of pricing or the ability to lay off FT? Just hoping you could give us an update on how the market is evolving around the Haynesville, given that you are the largest producer.

Hey, good morning, Matt. This is Dan. Yeah, we remain very constructive around demand. We put a page together, I believe it's on page 15 of our deck, looking at demand. This is really a historic wave of structural demand that's coming at us. You hit many aspects there, power, industrial, LNG. On the power side, we tend to be more conservative than others, but still significant demand and really electrification is growing. Data centers is a big story, but there's also microgrid solutions and just balancing of markets. This is evidenced in the last few weeks, we've seen record demand prints for the U.S. We hit an all-time high a couple of weeks ago of 101 terawatts. This is growing and real. Again, we are on this conservative side. Industrial, same thing. This is an often part of the market that's missed, and it's really in our backyard down in the Haynesville area.

The amount of expansions happening at manufacturing sites. We're under some confidential conversations with new sites being contemplated for the back half of the decade. We're excited about that. LNG, this is real and it's real structural. We actually updated our demand, we're a bit more bullish on LNG. We've seen some accelerated projects happening. We've seen more FIDs taking place. Really the confluence of all these demands coming together right in our backyard in Haynesville and Appalachia really sets up nice for our business. Again, Mike said it earlier, this is a demand pull, we have a lot of customers coming to see us.

Being able to offer them different products, structural products, long-term products, that's something the Expand footprint allows. Adding Twin Eagle to this just makes us even integrated and more strong and enhanced. Having that coast-to-coast footprint and being able to offer different types of products is going to be real beneficial for us and a differentiator.

Great. The second question, just on broader capital allocation trends. Obviously, the 2027 strip has come under pressure, maybe some of the smaller privates and smaller publics have been a bit more growth-focused in the near term. Just curious, given how large your footprint is across the U.S., being the largest gas producer across the U.S., as you guys think about capital allocation, if the market does require growth from Expand down the road, is it still fair to think about with the slide you guys lay out on slide six, that we probably need to see something in the $3.75 to $4 mid-cycle case for growth to return from a larger producer like yourself?

Yeah. The view on mid-cycle price is absolutely driving how we think about cap allocation back into our business. We think the $3.50 to $4 range still fits. We think that's the prices that will be required to balance the market ultimately. As we think about heading in towards the end of the decade, where you start to see larger demand growth, Dan just referenced specifically the LNG power and industrial demand growth that we see. If we start to adjust up that view on mid-cycle price, this business is positioned to grow. It's not just in the depth of our inventory, but it's also the access to infrastructure that the company maintains, specifically across the Haynesville asset. We've talked about the NFZ extension earlier. That's adding locations. That creates a real growth option with unconstrained infrastructure.

We have our East Texas position that we're building. We are well-positioned, especially where we sit on the cost curve, to be out in front and, again, the supply-demand fundamentals support it. We are in a position to go grow.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research.

Mr. Leggate, your line is now open.

Oh, thank you. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for having me on. Guys, I've got two questions, if I may. I'm looking at slide number seven, which is the drilling efficiency, the improvement, obviously pretty impressive. My question is, at some point, should we expect the improved capital efficiency, if you like, to translate to a lower CapEx number? Because it seems that you've got the capacity to do more with less, if you like, given that you haven't changed your production guidance. That's my first. My second one is a follow-up, if you don't mind, on Twin Eagle. The $200 million, obviously, and the synergies, you guys have got a track record, forgive me for this, of being somewhat conservative on your synergies.

I'm curious how you would frame the risk of delivering the $250, and I'm excluding the extra $100 because you already had $500 in your own numbers. I guess my point is, what's the trajectory, and what's the impact on your breakeven? Thanks. Yeah. Hey, good morning, Doug.

This is Josh Viets. I'll take the first part of your question. I think really what you're getting at is there an expectation that our maintenance CapEx adjust, given some efficiencies that we're seeing? I think at a corporate level, we still see our maintenance CapEx ex growth leasehold and growth D&C spend in the East Texas position, still sitting around that 2.8 level. There has been some headwinds on the CapEx front, just primarily through higher fuel costs in the year. That will serve as a bit of an offset to the efficiency gains. I think we continue to unlock ways in which we improve our capital efficiency. Of course, the great execution results that we've seen in Southwest Appalachia is one example.

We also highlight in the slide deck on page eight what we're achieving with our enhanced completions in the Haynesville, which has the ability to increase our per-well production to the tune of about 5%-10%. Most importantly, there, that's really about flattening that year two and year three decline rate. Those things will ultimately translate into our 2027 maintenance capital level. I do expect as we head into next year on a maintenance CapEx level that we do see some modest improvements year-over-year.

Good. Hey, Doug, let me pick up on your second question. The first bit was on the $200 million of acquired EBITDA of Twin Eagle, right? That's kind of what we call our base EBITDA or their base EBITDA, and they've been consistently delivering that over the last couple of years in a low volatility kind of part of the market. When there's volatility, that number could be 1.5x-2x of that particular number. We have kind of guided to the normal volatility type of range. $250 million of synergies. I think you're right. We have a track record of over-delivering and being conservative of that. We'll do everything that we can to squeeze that out and to accelerate delivery of that.

We're pretty excited about what bringing together kind of our supply and financial strength can do with the capabilities and relationships and the infrastructure that Twin Eagle team have, and when we bring that together, what it can unlock. Just to the breakeven question, right? On an excluding dividend basis, which is probably most comparable to others, we're around $2.70 today. The acquisition itself will reduce that breakeven by about $0.05 to $0.10. With the synergies, that's about $0.10 to $0.15. And if you include the full $750 of M&C delivery, which we shared in our deck, that's around a $0.30 breakeven improvement overall. There you got all the steps.

That's really helpful, guys. Thanks very much indeed.

Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Scott Hanold from RBC Capital Markets. Mr. Hanold, your line is now open.

Thank you. My first question is also on Twin Eagle, and I'd be interested to see if you all could compare and contrast the advantages of this more commercial strategy for integration versus owning midstream assets, so more of the asset-heavy kind of opportunity. Compare and contrast the two kind of advantages and disadvantages of those strategies.

Maybe I'll start and let Marcel jump in. Generally, we consider this a capital-light opportunity. We are reaching premium markets and a bigger footprint for a lot less money up front. That generally goes to superior returns. That was part of the thesis of why we wanted to do this particular transaction. After that doesn't mean we won't do things like NG3, which is, hey, if we can do midstream deals and partnerships that help us get our gas to better markets, and we'll use Twin Eagle to go and market around that, we would do those types of things. Being a midstream company is not what we are. We're not a midstream company. We're not trying to be a midstream company. We think there are a lot of great ones out there. Williams does a great job. Kinder Morgan does a great job.

That's a hard place for us to compete. We prefer to compete on a customer basis and upstream basis. If we have opportunities to unlock our gas to go further and increase our prices, we're going to do that.

Anything to add? Okay. Go ahead.

Thanks for that. My follow-up is, just on the Western Haynesville, can you give us a sense of what you've seen from the first well so far and on the cost side? At some point in time, do you think this can compete with the greater portfolio?

Hey, Scott. Josh here. We've been really pleased with what we've seen, both from an execution and early productivity, in the Western Haynesville. It's incredibly complex. It's deep. You're over 17,000 feet deep there, so costs are high. We absolutely see line of sight through improved drilling techniques, better completion designs, not just to drive down cost over time, but also to further enhance well productivity. That play for us, I would just note, is truly considered exploratory in nature. There are still a lot of things that we have to learn, but what we love about it is the upside of growth that it provides for the company. We do have a ways to go, I would say, to further appraise it. We just finished drilling our second well in the play in the second quarter.

That was just a vertical test well to further delineate the reservoir. Pleased with what we've seen there, we'll drill a third well later in the year. The first well is on production. That data is now in the public domain. Been pretty pleased with productivity, high pressures, so it does have the making. Again, this is something for us that we've put in an appraisal stage, we really have that luxury simply because of the depth of inventory that we have across our Louisiana position. Over 2,000 locations, roughly 20 years of inventory. The fact that we own 75% of all Tier 1 inventory really puts us in a position of strength and simply not as dependent upon the Western Haynesville.

Again, I would just note, this creates a great growth option for the company as we head into the back end of the decade.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of John Freeman from Raymond James.

Mr. Freeman, your line is open.

Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to follow up, Josh, on some of your comments on the Haynesville, where you talked about the success that y'all have had on the enhanced completions, which y'all show in the slide deck. If maybe you can just elaborate a little bit, as I believe the one trade-off is you do have a little bit longer cycle times, which might push some of those Haynesville tills into next year. If you can just elaborate on that dynamic.

Yeah, sure. We've really put ourselves in a competitive advantage in the Haynesville. For one, just the scale gives us additional opportunities to go out and how we source certain components of the supply chain. As an example, our procurement of sand comes at roughly a third of the cost of where our competitors are, and that's really one of the items that's unlocking this greater well performance. We can simply pump larger, more complex completions, and that's what's ultimately delivering the increased production. Most importantly, improvement in returns and lower breakevens. Specifically, on your point on the cycle times, with the bigger fracs, that leads to longer pump times, longer drill-out periods. The knock-on impact is it does start pushing out some of our tills. We'll end up with roughly 10 fewer tills in the year than what we anticipated.

There's opportunities to go accelerate those, the current environment really isn't necessarily needing that incremental gas. We're happy to allow these turn-in-lines to float into 2027.

Great. Just my follow-up question, just sticking with the Haynesville. Can you discuss what's being evaluated with the GenX testing that's underway? It looks like the initial results are promising, but just remind us what you're testing there.

Yeah, sure. One of the things about the Haynesville is you end up producing roughly 70% of the EUR in the first couple of years of production. What we're trying to unlock is to create a structural change in how we drain the reservoir and therefore how those longer-term decline rates show up. We simply want to access more of the reservoir from a common wellbore. We are experimenting with some various completion techniques that allows us to enhance that stimulated rock volume with the goal of increasing EURs, which we believe ultimately will lead to better returns in the asset, lower reinvestment rates, and lower breakevens. We've been pleased with what we've seen to date. It's a little bit too early for us to talk about it. We think there's a real competitive advantage with what we're doing.

We'll hopefully be in a position to talk about that in the year to come.

Great. Thanks, Josh. Thank you.

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs. Mr. Mehta, your line is now open.

Yeah, good morning, Mike, Marcel team. Mike, thanks for the color around the CEO process. Maybe you can unpack that a little bit more for us. It sounds like you said six to nine months. We're six months in. It'll get done by nine months. At this point, you probably have some visibility, Mike. Maybe you talk a little bit about characteristics that the board's looking for. Are you happy with how the process is progressing? Any updates you want to provide to the market? Sure. Process is progressing well. We're definitely in the back third of this.

Which is why I'm confident we'll meet our goals. The person that we're looking for is someone who has a long career in energy. We've talked about how it won't be someone from the outside of the industry. Person will have success on their resume that we hope to capture and bring to our company. They'll have to believe in the integrated gas story model that we've been working on. I don't think that's very controversial in what we're trying to do. That person will like that and have an opportunity to make that even better. Look, this company is not made on one person. It's made on a team, and I think we've spent just as much time working on our team. If you think about the last six months, of course, we have Marcel here, who's been an amazing addition to the team as CFO.

We've also had Chief Risk Officer. Now we have a CHRO with us today. We've done other stuff that is actually super helpful to the team. This last six months, we've rebuilt our business development team in Houston, Texas. Why is that important? You do not have Twin Eagle without building a phenomenal team to work it. That is something of the benefits that we talked about why we're going to move from Oklahoma City. That team has really outkicked the goal on this one. It's about team first because there's no perfect CEO, the CEO will definitely have success, and they'll definitely be in energy.

Thanks, Mike. One of the things I took away from the slide is growing confidence around the Southwest part of the Appalachia business. Just talk about as you think about where you want to be deploying dollars, Haynesville versus the Northeast versus Southwest. Is Southwest continuing to move up the pecking order, and if so, why?

Yeah. Credit to the team again, for the work that we've been doing in Southwest App. I think it's worth just noting, if you go back to the integration of Chesapeake and Southwestern, really it was the Haynesville, was the focus of that integration. Of course, we delivered a tremendous amount of synergies from that asset. One of the advantages that we have as a company is that being multi-basin, running large development programs, we will drill roughly 200 wells a year. We have plenty of opportunities to test new tools, equipment, designs, then go export those rapidly across the other business units. That's exactly what we've seen happen in Southwest Appalachia, just leveraging all the learnings that we've been able to put in place from across the company. Specifically on the capital allocation front, this is the power of our portfolio.

Being across three distinct operating basins that each have their own production characteristics and cost characteristics associated with them. One of the great things about Southwest Appalachia, of course, is you have liquid exposure. So I've talked earlier about the realized inflation associated with higher fuel costs. Well, that's been more than offset by about 3X of increased EBITDA associated with higher liquid costs in the year. So as we think about capital allocation across the business, we're always going to be tuned in to the fundamentals. As we see movements in mid-cycle price, as we see movements in cost structures, we're in a position to reallocate capital differently to generate the best return on capital for our shareholders.

Thanks, team. Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Kevin MacCurdy from Pickering Energy Partners.

Your line is open, sir.

Hey, good morning. I wanted to dive into the EBITDA forecast for Twin Eagle a little bit more and how you arrived at that estimate. When you forecast that $200 million a year, is that driven by kind of historical EBITDA, the storage and transport spreads, or is the value really in the origination agreements? Then maybe you could add on what kind of variability you anticipate on that EBITDA number for a good year, and a bad year.

Okay. Thanks for the question, Kevin. The $200 million is what we have seen quite ratably over the last couple of years, and we have used that as the basis, right? It's a ratable business, so we use it as a basis looking forward as well. A bit earlier I talked about this is in kind of normal volatility year. When there's high volatility events, there's upsides to this particular number, about one and a half to 2x, you should think about when there's more volatility. That's the basis. The business, yes, it starts with origination from the customer contracts back into the infrastructure and then back into supply. Where the real value is driven off is optimizing the logistics of this business. The Twin Eagle team is really good at that. That's what drives most of the value in that business.

Mike already mentioned that earlier, and we shared that there's over 1,300 customers within the Twin Eagle book. There are many support agreements, both supply as well as infrastructure, that support all of that. It has been quite repeatable, and the team has proven it by being profitable every single year for the last 15 years, right? Especially that $200 million number has been the underlying basis for the last couple of years, and we feel comfortable with that. Then I talked a bit about the kind of the upside or the synergies that we can deliver when we integrate that.

I think on the Twin Eagle side, particularly, our financial strength as well as our long-term supply allows them to add a customer base that they have so far not been able to kind of touch the longer duration type of agreements that they can do. To the Expand portfolio, the Twin Eagle capability, their customer relationships, their access to kind of coast to coast and into Canada will really help to unlock value from the 9 Bcf a day or so that we are moving today. That's the way that this deal, you should expect the deal to work.

Great. Appreciate that answer. Maybe as a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the production cadence. It looks like 3Q guidance is kind of flattish, but the implied 4Q is higher. I just wanted to confirm your intentions to kind of ramp into the 4Q. If so, is that really the new run rate, or is that just maybe a run rate for the winter months?

Yeah, Kevin. We do anticipate at this point in time to have a modest ramp of volume into the fourth quarter. This is showing up primarily across our Appalachia business units, where we would anticipate winter-driven demand to start to tighten basis. We think growing production into that demand pool makes a lot of sense for the company. I will say that if we start to see demand soften, weather's not showing up, I think we do reserve the right. We've proven over time, to be active managers of production. That's both with curtailments through shoulder seasons as well as how we think about our turn-in-line schedule. We do expect to be up over 7.6 Bcf a day in the fourth quarter.

We give a range for a reason, and that's because we want to maintain flexible with how we deliver volumes and best align those volumes with price. As we think about that run rate coming out of the year, right now, again, our business is built around delivering that 7.5 Bcf a day, you will see us move above and below that, of course, across the year, again, trying to best align our production with price.

Appreciate that. Thank you. Thank you.

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Gabe Daoud from Truist. Your line is now open.

Hey, thanks. Morning, Mike and Marcel and everyone. Maybe just a quick one for me on Twin Eagle, maybe a question for Marcel on the $200 million in EBITDA. Maybe more of an accounting question, but how should we think about that showing up in Expand Energy's P&L over time? Is that all just kind of dump into the marketing line, or would that impact Expand Energy upstream realizations over time?

Yeah. We expect it to show up in accounting in three different lines, and we'll work out the details and provide some more clarity as we complete the deal and into the next year. Right? The first line, you would see it in realizations. Clearly, it's integrated to our business. The second line is marketing, as you do. The third line in derivatives, we also expect to see some of that. We're working now to plan our integration, as well as completion of the transaction. Once we get to that point, we'll be able to help you guide into 2027 as well.

Okay. Okay, great. That's helpful. Thanks, Marcel. Another quick follow-up on Twin Eagle. You mentioned the magnitude of outperformance during periods of dislocation. I'd imagine 1Q, Twin Eagle probably put up a number significantly higher than what the quarterly run rate would imply. Is that right? Is it that 1.5x to 2x number that you cited?

I think you'll see when we post their financials that they absolutely outperformed this 200x.

Got it. Got it. Thanks, Mike. Thanks, guys. Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Betty Jiang from Barclays.

Ms. Jiang, your line is open.

Good morning. I want to start with a macro question first. It speaks to the slide 15. I think one of the key investor debate these days is just reconciling this longer-term, very structural high growth. At the same time, there's the near-term bearish gas headwinds. Longer term, if this demand growth materializes, how do you guys think about ultimately filling that demand? How much do you think will be coming from the Haynesville versus Appalachia, which now seemingly will be a growth driver as well, and associated gas? In the near term, given worse gas prices here, do you think we could see some slowdown in the Haynesville, whether that's coming from Expand or other Haynesville more broadly, until there's a stronger gas price signal?

Yeah. Hey, Betty, this is Josh. I think in the near term, specifically in the Haynesville, I think there's an expectation that you do see some additional production growth in the back half of the year. There's probably a half a B to a B a day of additional growth, but I think I would just note that that's really dependent upon the actions of one operator in the basin. Clearly, the market sits in a modestly oversupplied position right now. You're also faced with additional Permian egress that's coming on to the tune of 3.5 or so Bcf a day of additional egress by year-end. That will keep the markets, I would say, in an oversupply position through at least probably the first half of 2027.

I think as we get into the second half, we do anticipate some structural tightening in the markets where we would anticipate 5.5 to 6 Bcf a day of new demand showing up. As we think about that demand, not just through 2027, but again, I think you have to think a little bit longer term than that. Looking at 19 to 24 Bcf a day of incremental demand by the end of the decade. Our business is built to be able to grow into that demand. Specifically, we think about the Haynesville with our deep inventory, the access to infrastructure now of the business being further enhanced combining with Twin Eagle. We are very well positioned to meet the needs of customers heading into the end of the decade.

That's helpful. Actually, that ties into my Twin Eagle follow-up. Some Northeast producers do talk about growing into contracted demand. That's historically not the same stance for Expand. With Twin Eagle's marketing capabilities, do you think there's more appetite if these contract opportunities materialize, that you will tie your volume growth with that?

Well, absolutely. One of our fundamental principles is we want to facilitate new demand so that we can grow into it. The value of Twin Eagle is if they can help us identify and put that demand together, then we'll grow into it.

Okay, thanks. Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Phillip Jungwirth from BMO.

Mr. Jungwirth, your line is open.

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Curious what the dynamic is across Twin Eagle's producer network and purchase agreements at the wellhead, is this part of the strategy evolved at all given the combination with Expand? Separately, just how has customer feedback been so far to the deal? When you hear from them, what are they most excited about around the combination?

When we talk to the Twin Eagle guys, they think of this as a three-legged stool. They have their customers, they have credit, and they have supply. We're taking care of both credit and supply. They're sort of giddy on that because customers always drive transactions and customers want to have surety supply, and they want to know people are in business for long-term. That makes them and their group super excited. Other things that they're excited about is term. They have a pretty short-term credit facility. By having a long-term, they starting to get excited about how do I extend term, what type of customers, and size. Absolutely, team is ready to go.

Okay, great. The marketing commercial strategy started around $500 million, $0.20 an Mcf. With Twin, we've raised that to $750 or $0.30. Is there any reason you wouldn't look to keep pushing this higher, even if it requires additional inorganic investment?

Yeah, no, we'll continue to push that higher and look for opportunities, right? The way that we have now structured that, our original $500, about half of that we were expecting to come from new demand, so primarily LNG, and the rest of our kind of premium demand markets, as well as volatility management. Clearly, with the Twin Eagle acquisition, we get some of that. We deliver synergies and accelerate what we had identified, but we think we can do now quicker. We still have our LNG that comes on top of it. That's the $750. As Mike started kind of saying, we are the leading integrated gas company, we continue to push into that customer end and see where we can identify more value on that side.

We'll prefer to do that capital light, as we have already said.

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question or comment comes from the line of Michael Scialla from Stephens.

Mr. Scialla, your line is open.

Yeah, good morning. Your leasing, you mentioned, came in higher than expected. I just want to see what the opportunity set looks like there going forward. If you maintain the pace of leasing activity that you had in the first half, is it fair to assume that you might be pushing toward the high end of your CapEx guidance for the year?

Yeah. Hey, Mike. Yeah, Q2 was definitely, I think, the highlight for us. I think we have been working very hard to bring forward some interesting opportunities for the company. Case in point, the 3,000 acres that we acquired in the core of Bradford County. That's something we've been working for well over two years to bring to fruition. We have a very capable and active land organization working in concert with those subsurface teams to turn up new opportunities. We do remain heavily focused on identifying new opportunities. They're simply hard to predict. We do anticipate across the second half of the year that spending will wind down a little bit, but that there's good opportunities. The company is well-positioned financially to go action these accretive transactions.

Gotcha. Mike, last quarter, you said on the marketing side, you thought you could stack a lot of singles and doubles together and you didn't really need to do a large deal, but you did one, obviously, with Twin Eagle here. How did those opportunities change now? Are they still part of the plan, or do those go away with the Twin Eagle deal?

No, we're still chasing those transactions. We'll end up stacking those singles and doubles, and that will continue. We'll just have a bigger footprint to put them across. You'll see us have plenty of activity in both sort of our original strategy as well as Twin Eagle strategy.

Very good. Thank you. Thank you.

Our next question or comment comes from the line of John Annas from Texas Capital. Mr. Annas, your line is now open.

Good morning, all, and thanks for taking my questions. For my first one, with pro forma storage increasing to 49 Bcf, how much of that capacity is currently committed to existing customer arrangements versus available for optimization? Is the opportunity more about seasonal spreads, physical reliability, or creating structured products for customers?

Well, sure. We're not prepared to disclose exactly the customer relationships we have in storage. We think about it more holistically, and when we back up, we like to think about margin across the value chain, particularly around seasonal opportunities. Of course, they add gas in low-price environments, and then in the winter, they take it out, so you should think about this cycle.

Makes sense. Maybe taking a step back, does the expanded marketing and storage platform increase the value of maintaining spare productive capacity in the upstream business? I guess in other words, does the integrated platform make you more willing to build productive capacity, curtail, or grow production depending on market signals than you were on a standalone basis?

Yeah. John, we actually love that concept. Of course, we've been proponents of actively managing production, and I think as we get closer to customers, have better insights on supply and demand trends, that just puts us in a stronger position to actively manage production both up and down.

Thanks, guys. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our Q&A session.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Mike Wichterich for any closing remarks.

Thank you everyone for joining our call. We're excited about this transaction, we're excited about our team that we're building here. We expect to have a big quarter next quarter, please stay tuned. Thank you for your time.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.