Wabash National Corp. Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Key Takeaways
- Wabash reported second quarter 2026 consolidated revenue of $417 million, exceeding prior expectations.
- The company shipped 8,292 new trailers and 1,380 truck bodies in Q2 2026.
- Adjusted non-GAAP gross margin returned to positive at 4.1% of sales, while adjusted non-GAAP operating margin was negative 5.6%.
- Adjusted non-GAAP EBITDA was negative $9 million, or -2.1% of sales, and adjusted net income attributable to common shareholders was negative $21.6 million, or -$0.53 per diluted share.
- Transportation Solutions segment generated $355 million in revenue with a non-GAAP operating loss of $12.1 million, returning to positive gross margin.
- Parts and Services segment delivered $63 million in revenue and $6 million in operating income, with improved profitability due to ramping Upfit sites and digital technology development.
- Operating cash flow was $5.1 million and free cash flow was $3.1 million as of June 30, 2026.
- Total liquidity was $193 million, including cash and available borrowings, increased from prior quarter.
- Wabash secured $150 million of additional liquidity through convertible senior notes after quarter end to strengthen balance sheet flexibility and support working capital needs.
- Backlog grew to $956 million at the close of Q2 2026, a 14% increase quarter over quarter and the first second-quarter backlog growth in company history.
Outlook
- The freight market recovery is taking shape with improving spot rates, contract rates, and tender rejection rates, supporting better carrier profitability.
- Market indicators such as truck tonnage, ISM Manufacturing Index, and Logistics Managers Index show positive trends.
- Wabash expects the fourth quarter 2026 to experience some top-line deterioration versus the third quarter due to seasonality but anticipates sequential earnings per share improvement due to pricing recovery and cost control.
- The company is cautiously confident in the outlook while monitoring macro disruptors, geopolitical tensions, and broader economic impacts that could affect market recovery.
- Wabash sees a replacement demand environment returning, supported by its US-centric supply chain, manufacturing capabilities, and liquidity position.
Guidance
- For the third quarter 2026, Wabash expects revenue in the range of $440 million to $460 million.
- Adjusted earnings per share for Q3 2026 are expected in the loss range of $0.50 to $0.40 per share.
- Operating margin for Q3 2026 is expected to be approximately -4%.
- The company is not providing quantitative guidance beyond Q3 2026 at this stage but expects the fourth quarter to have some top-line decline with improving earnings per share.
- Capital expenditure remains under close review to balance funding needs and business conditions.
- Wabash anticipates positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026.
Executive Comments
- Wabash improved its injury rate for the fourth consecutive quarter, down 13% versus Q1 2026 and 33% versus Q2 2025, with total injuries down 15% year over year.
- The company opened its 2027 order book early in late June to provide customers with earlier visibility, delivery windows, and pricing certainty.
- Wabash is focused on aligning cost to demand, protecting liquidity, and investing in differentiating areas to prepare for market recovery.
- The company supports American manufacturing with approximately 95% of materials procured from the US and investments in US facilities, including adding 10,000 units of dry van capacity at the Lafayette South plant.
- Wabash is encouraged by affirmative preliminary rulings on antidumping and countervailing duties affecting Chinese and Mexican imports, supporting domestic industry competitiveness.
- Management expects pricing recovery to begin incrementally through 2026 and become more impactful in 2027, reflecting cost, capacity, and customer value.
- The company believes that 2027 pricing levels, excluding antidumping factors, will be sufficient to return to normalized EBITDA levels between $150 million and $170 million if market forecasts are accurate.
- Wabash sees market demand for dry vans in 2027 at 135,000 to 145,000 units, consistent with replacement levels, supported by customer discussions and market conditions.
- Management expects gross margin improvements primarily driven by pricing recovery, with volume leverage also contributing as production increases.
- Parts and Services gross margins are expected to improve to mid to high teens over the next two to three years as volume ramps and pricing recovers.
- Wabash aims to regain market share by maintaining sustainable capacity, offering reasonable pricing, and expanding customer portfolios, with current market share around 23% in the drive-in segment.
- The company believes that prior peak pricing levels from 2022 are a reasonable benchmark for future pricing, while 2023 and early 2024 levels are not considered realistic for 2027.
Q&A
- The challenges in EPS for Q2 2026 were due to low pricing in the backlog and ramp-up inefficiencies; pricing improvements are expected to show in late Q3, Q4, and 2027.
- Pricing increases have been made in nearly three-week increments over the past 9 to 12 weeks, with substantial backlog reflecting higher prices.
- Q3 material margin is expected to be similar to Q2, with 200 to 300 basis points improvement anticipated in Q4 backed by current backlog pricing.
- The remaining available slots in Q4 show elevated pricing that offsets material cost increases, with positive momentum expected to continue into 2027.
- If 2027 market demand reaches replacement levels around 260,000 units, Wabash expects to return to normalized EBITDA levels of $150 to $170 million.
- Pricing for 2027 bids is sufficient to achieve normalized profitability assuming market forecasts are accurate.
- The market for dry vans in 2027 is expected to be 135,000 to 145,000 units, driven by replacement demand, supported by customer intent and market conditions.
- Pricing levels for 2027 are expected to cover inflationary costs from the past 2 to 3 years and do not yet factor in antidumping or countervailing duties.
- Historical peak pricing from 2022 is considered a reasonable benchmark for future pricing, while 2023 and early 2024 levels are not.
- Opening the 2027 order book early was driven by customer requests and has resulted in active quoting and early cycle negotiations, providing customers with certainty on capacity and delivery slots.
- July orders are expected to continue the positive trend seen in Q2, with dealer body orders starting 6 to 9 months earlier than in recent years.
- Competition among domestic manufacturers is active with early order book openings.
- Transportation Solutions gross margin improvement will be primarily driven by pricing recovery, with volume leverage also contributing.
- Parts and Services gross margins are expected to improve to mid to high teens over the next 2 to 3 years as volume and pricing recover.
- Wabash has grown market share in the tank segment despite low market demand and aims to regain share in the drive-in segment by providing sustainable capacity and reasonable pricing.
- Market share recovery is supported by the ability to serve customers throughout the cycle and expand the customer portfolio.
- A large national customer recently indicated plans to increase trailer purchases in 2026 and 2027, supporting management's positive outlook.
Everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Wabash second quarter 2026 earnings release call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to John Cummings, Senior Director, Financial Planning and Analysis and Investor Relations. John, please go ahead. Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone.
We appreciate you joining us on this call. With me today are Brent Yeagy, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Pat Keslin, Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, please note that this call is being recorded. I'd also like to point out that our earnings release, the slide presentation supplementing today's call, and any non-GAAP reconciliations are available at ir.onewabash.com. Please refer to slide two in our earnings deck for the company's safe harbor disclosure addressing forward-looking statements. I'll hand it off now to Brent.
Thanks, John. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'd like to start by discussing something that is fundamental to how we operate at Wabash: safety. As we close out the second quarter, we are proud to have successfully improved our injury rate for the fourth consecutive quarter, 13% versus Q1 of 2026, 33% versus Q2 of 2025, and total injuries are down 15% year-over-year. As we look ahead to increasing dry van production, we're increasing focus on our onboarding process to elevate workplace safety and manufacturing quality. Our long-term target is an injury rate less than one, and every day we are moving closer to that attainment. The second quarter continued to strengthen our conviction that the freight market recovery is taking shape. We are seeing a healthier combination of supply-side forces, safety-focused federal led enforcement, and improving carrier economics.
These factors are beginning to translate into better market fundamentals. Spot rates, contract rates, and tender rejection rates are moving in a direction that supports improved carrier profitability, and that matters because carrier profitability is what ultimately frees up capital to support increased replacement demand expenditure. We fully opened up our order book for 2027 production in late June. That timing is earlier than traditional order cycles, but it reflects what customers want, which is earlier visibility in delivery windows and pricing. Our role is to help customers plan with greater confidence, and in a recovering market, those who plan early should be rewarded with better availability and greater certainty. Against that backdrop, we have continued to take proactive steps to position Wabash for the next stage of the cycle.
We are controlling what we can control, aligning cost to demand, protecting liquidity, and continuing to invest in areas that differentiate Wabash with our customers. We also recently announced a convertible note offering designed to enhance balance sheet flexibility as we prepare to ramp production for dry vans. That action is consistent with our approach to managing through the cycle, preserve resiliency in the near term, maintain the ability to move decisively, and make sure we are prepared to support customers as they increase activity. Earlier this month, Wabash announced its intention to issue convertible senior notes and, after the close of the quarter, secured $150 million of additional liquidity, less associated expenses. Those funds strengthen our balance sheet flexibility and are intended to be used for general corporate purposes, including repaying amounts outstanding under existing credit agreements.
Just as importantly, they provide working capital as we prepare for the next phase of the market cycle. We view flexibility around networking capital as a strategic advantage. When demand begins to accelerate, companies that can respond quickly, efficiently, and with discipline are best positioned to serve customers and capture profitable growth and share. This added liquidity gives Wabash greater ability to manage that ramp without compromising our broader priorities across cost control, operating execution, and long-term value creation. As part of our broader capital strategy, we are also continuing to pursue the refinancing of a revolving credit agreement. Multiple lenders have committed to funding and extending the agreement up to $300 million. We expect to provide an additional update on this topic soon. Turning to the market, leading indicators continue to build from what we saw earlier in the first quarter.
Spot rates continued to strengthen, rising from roughly 14% above prior year levels at the end of the first quarter to approximately 40% above last year by June, surpassing contract rates. Tender rejection rates have moved above 16%, which represents the highest level since 2018. ATA for-hire truck tonnage continues to run ahead of the prior year, and the ISM Manufacturing Index has been in expansionary territory for six consecutive months, and the Logistics Managers' Index reached its highest level since early 2022. We are also encouraged by what we are seeing in our own backlog. Backlog grew to $956 million at the close of Q2 2026, a 14% increase quarter-over-quarter. While continuing the double-digit growth that was experienced in the first quarter, the more important point is the pattern.
This was the first time in the company's history that we have experienced backlog growth in the second quarter. That tells us that the customers are beginning to move from deferral to committed demand as they work to stop the three years of fleet aging. Wabash is positioned well for the return of a replacement demand environment. Our U.S.-centric supply chain, leading manufacturing capabilities, increased dry van capacity, and strengthened liquidity position give us the ability to support customers as the market moves to its next growth phase. Our intent is clear and steadfast. It is to serve customers better, win share, and convert improved volume into stronger financial performance. In conjunction with our intent to grow share through the next stage of the demand cycle, the recovering freight market is also providing the opportunity to recover, through price, costs that Wabash has absorbed during this abnormally lengthy trough.
That recovery will not appear all at once. Pricing will be gained incrementally as 2026 progresses and newly quoted deals layer into existing backlog and become more impactful as we move through 2027. Industry average selling prices for trailers have fallen from prior years while underlying costs have increased. That spread is not sustainable over the long term, and discipline pricing is an important part of restoring appropriate economics across the industry. We will continue to price in a way that reflects cost, capacity, customer value, and the reality of a market that is beginning to recover. There has also been meaningful progress in the antidumping and countervailing duty case brought to the International Trade Commission in late 2025. Affirmative preliminary rulings and rates have been established as follows. Countervailing duties for China at a range between approximately 82% for cooperating entities and 129% for non-cooperating entities.
For Chinese antidumping duties, they are set at approximately 131%. For Mexico, countervailing duties are approximately 2%, and antidumping duties are expected to be announced shortly. Wabash is a champion of American manufacturing. That commitment is evident in our continued investment in U.S. facilities, including the Lafayette South plant, which added 10,000 units of dry van capacity, and our sourcing strategy with approximately 95% of our materials procured from the U.S. We support actions that provide relief to the domestic industry and help level the playing field, because a healthy domestic manufacturing base is important for customers, employees, and the long-term competitiveness of the industry. As a reminder, our foreign competition is also subject to Section 232 tariff duties that were modified in Q2, resulting in a 25% tariff rate being applied to the full customs value of an imported trailer.
Section 232 tariffs and antidumping tariffs and countervailing duty rates are stackable. Looking forward, the outlook continues to show positive signals, including the atypical second quarter backlog growth to $956 million. At the same time, we continue to monitor market sentiment closely and continue to consider the ongoing potential for macro disruptors, geopolitical tensions, and broader economic impacts that could influence overall market recovery. For that reason, we will continue to provide quarterly guidance while this transitionary period converts into a more stable environment. For the third quarter, we expect revenue in the range of $440 million to $460 million and adjusted earnings per share in the loss range of $0.50 to $0.40 per share. The outlook for the third quarter remains consistent with our prior qualitative guidance and reflects sequential improvement as we move through the year.
While we are not providing quantitative guidance beyond Q3 at this stage, we do expect the fourth quarter to experience some top-line deterioration versus the third quarter, in line with typical seasonality, while continuing to improve sequentially in earnings per share as cost recovery through pricing begins to filter into the financials and we benefit from focused cost control actions. Before I turn the call over to Pat, I want to again recognize our employees. Their skill, experience, and commitment to execution are what allow Wabash to manage through a difficult environment while continuing to prepare for the upcycle. We have asked a great deal of our teams, and they have continued to respond with discipline, resilience, and a focus on continuous improvement. With that, I will now turn the call over to Pat for his comments.
Thanks, Brent. I'll begin with a review of our second quarter results. For the second quarter of 2026, consolidated revenue was $417 million, above the expectations we communicated on our first quarter earnings call. During the quarter, we shipped 8,292 new trailers and 1,380 truck bodies. Truck body volumes were in line with our expectations, with the second quarter expected to represent the low point for the year. We continue to project the recovery in truck bodies to lag our traditional dry van business, though we anticipate moderate sequential improvement in the second half of 2026. We were encouraged by the incremental volume we saw in the quarter, particularly within our core dry van product. While the financial profile is improving, the current market environment continues to suppress margins in the near term.
Adjusted non-GAAP gross margin was 4.1% of sales, marking a return to positive gross margin, and adjusted non-GAAP operating margin was -5.6%. Results were impacted by higher material costs that we have been unable to fully recover through pricing. As a reminder, these adjusted results exclude costs associated with the idling of our Little Falls and Goshen facilities. Adjusted non-GAAP EBITDA for the quarter was a negative $9 million or -2.1% of sales. Adjusted non-GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders was a negative $21.6 million or negative $0.53 per diluted share. EPS was within our guidance range, was adversely impacted by the material cost versus price relationship I just mentioned. We anticipate this to be short term in nature and not to affect our expectations for sequential profitability improvement as we move forward. Turning to our segments. Transportation Solutions generated $355 million in revenue and reported an operating loss of $12.1 million on a non-GAAP basis.
The segment returned to positive gross margin, supported by improved volume and better leverage of the cost base. We continue to expect sequential improvement as pricing adjusts to offset cost pressures. Parts & Services delivered $63 million in revenue and $6 million in operating income on a non-GAAP basis. Segment profitability improved versus the prior quarter, reflecting a step up in upfit business profitability. During the second quarter, we began to see the benefit of steady ramping at our new upfit sites, which carried elevated startup costs with minimal initial revenue in the first quarter. In addition, we continued to make progress on the development of digital technology and AI-powered tools that will help us to better serve the parts market in the areas of parts findability and availability.
Over time, we expect these capabilities to create additional revenue generation opportunities while improving mix, efficiency, and margin performance across Parts & Services. Turning to cash flow, operating cash flow for the quarter was $5.1 million, resulting in free cash flow of $3.1 million. As of June 30th, total liquidity, including cash and available borrowings, was $193 million, 17% up versus the prior quarter. Cash makes up just over one-third of the $193 million, with the remainder being available borrowings on our existing revolving credit agreement. Throughout the ongoing market softness, we have remained focused on preserving liquidity and maintaining financial flexibility. This disciplined approach allows us to manage near-term headwinds while continuing to support our strategic priorities and longer-term initiatives. In addition, we secured $150 million of additional liquidity through the convertible senior notes issued after quarter end.
That decision was driven by a desire to strengthen our liquidity position ahead of an expected market recovery, giving us the flexibility to support working capital needs, manage the production ramp, and pursue value-creating opportunities without compromising financial discipline. During the second quarter, we spent approximately $2 million on traditional capital expenditure and returned $3.3 million to shareholders through our quarterly dividend. As we look ahead and prepare for market recovery, we will continue to closely monitor cash and liquidity. The convertible senior notes provide additional flexibility and optionality, including the ability to pursue early payment discounts with our supply base, where we see attractive financial returns as we progress through 2026. We are also nearing completion of the refinancing efforts associated with our revolving credit agreement, with $300 million already committed.
We expect that to formally complete in the very near term, well ahead of it becoming current in September. Looking ahead to the third quarter, we expect revenue in the range of $440 million-$460 million, an operating margin of approximately negative 4%, and adjusted earnings per share in the loss range of -$0.50 to -$0.40. Capital expenditure remains under close review. We remain committed to appropriately funding the organization while retaining the ability to calibrate spending to business conditions. As we communicated on our prior call, Q1 was expected to be the weakest quarter of the year, and the second quarter showed meaningful financial improvement. We expect that trend to continue as we progress through the year, and our expectation for positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026 remains unchanged. In summary, the second quarter represented an important step forward off the bottom.
There is still work ahead, but as we evaluate the growing backlog and improving sentiment in the marketplace, we remain cautiously confident in the outlook. We are focused on disciplined execution, capturing share as demand improves, and positioning the business for stronger financial performance as volumes recover. The important steps taken to strengthen working capital availability reinforce our ability to respond quickly and decisively to customer needs while expanding long-term value for our stakeholders. I'll now turn the call back to the operator and will open it up for questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Your first question comes from the line of Michael Shlisky with D.A. Davidson & Co. Michael, your line is open. Please go ahead. Hello, thanks for taking my questions.
Let's see. I wanted to figure out some of the more recent challenges you just saw in EPS this quarter and EPS in your third quarter outlook. They're a little bit more challenging than I expected, but it sounded like from your comments, if I'm wrong here, please correct me. It sounds like you're just still working through the low point of pricing in the backlog, maybe some ramp-up inefficiencies as you're getting ready to ramp up in the next couple of quarters? Is that the right way to characterize it? How much better do you think the pricing and margin is in the backlog currently in the 956 compared to what you just built the last quarter or two here?
Just a reminder that if you are muted locally, to please unmute your device.
Was I muted or were they muted, perhaps?
I think the main line might be muted at the moment.
Hello, can you hear us?
Yes, the main line is now unmuted.
All right. Okay. Sorry about that.
We heard you, Mike. I'll start over, Mike.
Sorry about that. It was a really good answer, too. Yeah. Where you're heading is exactly where we're at. If you think about just where we were in the first quarter, the uncertainties that we had, how backlog was being kind of executed in Q1 and early Q2, we weren't really in a great place from a pricing standpoint. That has really changed coming into mid-second quarter, but that's backlog that's really laying into the tail end of the third quarter and primarily into the fourth quarter, and now technically into 2027.
We have to work our way through to where that shows up in the P&L, but we have great visibility to what that is, and we've made substantial pricing increases just in the last really in almost three-week increments for the last nine to 12 weeks with a pretty substantial amount of backlog that's flowed into the business. We do have some inefficiency costs that would have crept into the second quarter as we began to add some additional labor and shifts in response to the demand that's come in. They'll be incrementally similar levels when we get into Q3. Remember, we're going to be ramping for the next nine to 12 months based on the replacement cycle that we see. I think that part will generally be in line.
Pat will talk more here in a second about the real visibility that we have in terms of pricing and why we feel comfortable and confident that we're seeing it go in the right direction at the right scale to regain profitability relatively soon.
Yep. Just quantitatively, Mike, we do, of that $956 million in backlog, there is a big portion of that that's going to convert here in the third quarter. The profitability in the third quarter is tied in with the guidance that we gave, which at its highest level looks very similar to what we saw in Q2 from a margin standpoint. Think of it, the price, what we refer to as material margin, so price adjusted for your material cost, Q3 will look very similar to Q2. Going into Q4, we expect that number to incrementally get better, the material margin percent by two to 300 basis points. That is backed by orders that we have in the backlog right now.
Of the remaining available slots in the fourth quarter, which there isn't many at this point, we are seeing elevated pricing that more than offsets the material cost increases that we've seen this year, which is very different than what we experienced in our second quarter results and subsequently what our third quarter backlog looks like. Positive momentum going into the fourth quarter from a margin standpoint that we also expect to continue into 2027.
Let's talk about 2027 for a moment, if you wouldn't mind. Some of the big forecasters out there are saying the trailer market is 260 or so, kind of back to a more, what I would say, would be replacement level demand or some more normalized average level of demand. Pretty big jump from 2025 and 2026. I look back at history, I've seen Wabash make between $150 million and $200 million plus of EBITDA in years that are similar to that.
Given what you just said about the price and your ability to catch up, hopefully largely by the fourth quarter or maybe the very first part of 2027, given what you know about what you've changed and the brand new facility that you've opened up and haven't used much of the last couple of years, how do you feel about reaching a more average normalized EBITDA in 2027? Do you agree with the of the world that their volumes are correct? If they get there, how do you feel about your profitability this time around compared to previous times we've seen a 250 or so level trailer demand?
Yep. I'll address the profitability question. Brent can chime in on the forecast for 2027 and how we align to that. To answer your question, if 2027 does get back to a replacement level demand, we fully anticipate that we would be back in that range of profitability. Back to a more normalized EBITDA level. With that will come certainly an increase above our current pricing levels that we're seeing in the Q2 results and the Q3 backlog. Where we are currently pricing 2027 bids at would be enough to get back to that return to between that $150 million-$170 million of EBITDA range for 2027, assuming, like you said, that the ACT forecasts are in line with what actually happens in 2027?
Yeah. I'll answer two additional points. One, I'll answer your question around how do we see the market. Yeah. ACT/FTR, we'll just call it in that 260,000 unit total trailer range. Almost all that change from 2026 to 2027 is predicated on dry vans. Yes, we fully see both from the discussions that we're having with top-tier executives with some of the largest carriers in the country, is that they are fully focused on a replacement volume level. It's reflected in their words, it's reflected in their quote volumes, and their stated intent to purchase. We feel very comfortable with market conditions as they are, for 135,000-145,000 dry vans, which would be right in that replacement level in the way we see it. We've got a market backdrop that supports that.
The other piece I want to make sure we're clear on is that we're pricing today based on what I would say is the reasonable expectation of covering the inflationary costs that we've received over the last two to three years. It's a relatively straightforward conversation with our customers. The balance in pricing that we need to see in 2027 is also bridged, very concisely with that walk around the inflationary pressures. It is not taking into account anything with Countervailing Duty or Antidumping pricing factors at this stage as they continue to play out. We feel very comfortable on just the back of general market economics in terms of the pricing levels that we're able to quote, win, and achieve right now.
To follow up there, Brent, as I look back to previous pricing, I mean, inflation's happened every quarter, every year since the beginning of time. When I think back to what's happened on pricing the last couple of years, it's come down a bit. When I try to look at the forward numbers in 2027 perhaps, or even late 2026, would previous kind of high watermark pricing from a couple of years ago be the right place to look for what might happen in the future or even higher than that, given we're several years beyond that previous time?
I don't think 2023, early 2024 is a realistic, or even practical view of where the market is right now or will be in 2027. I think when you start looking at 2022, and you think about dry vans in the, we'll say spec agnostic right now in that $39.5-$41.5 range is something that is appropriate for where the market is in terms of the cost base that we have right now. I think that our customers are very aware of that in their own math and how they are thinking about capital allocation going forward. That would be a reasonable place to think about it when we're sitting at the end of 2027.
I would agree with everything Brent just said. The 2023, 2024 profitability that we saw, I would not model that in repeating into the future. 2020 2022 would be a very good comparable to what we would expect going forward.
Got it. I also wanted to ask about opening the order books early. Typically, that's usually in advance of a pretty solid year coming up. What has been the customer reaction to that, since you did it? Do you feel like you're getting good visibility on, perhaps I would say better than ever visibility as to how to buy, when to buy, when to produce, when to schedule, 6-plus months in advance here? Kind of just curious whether that's helped you get even more orders. Have customers been receptive to it? Or are some just saying, "Call me in November." Just a sense as to what you're hearing from some of the fleets out there.
The reason we did it is because we had customers asking us to. The response we've gotten is the follow-through on those requests for active quoting, and we'll call it early cycle negotiations and closing of deals so that they can have certainty in terms of allocated capacity, and slot timing. I think it's exactly what we expected would occur based on customer feedback, which is great because theoretically, customers can say one thing and do another. They carried through with what they've asked. We carried through on what we executed, and we're working through it right now.
July orders for Wabash here, compared to other Julys normally have been awfully good, just because you've had the ability to take orders that you didn't have in previous years?
Yeah. I think it's a carry forward what we've already said in Q2. This is atypical, in terms of customer acquisition and order closure. It started in June, it'll carry forward into July and so forth. The dealer body has already started to come into play, which is, shoot, 6 to 9 months ahead of where it's been the last two years in terms of them being prepared for the beginning of the year. It should be. I will put Q2 in perspective, just to give it scale. We talk about it being 14% up. That's a world where typically we would've contracted $200 million in backlog. We're really talking almost a $300 million swing in backlog under a normal Q2-ish type of world. A little bit less than 300, but rounding, it's in that kind of ballpark of what we're experiencing right now.
July will be something similar in terms of call it direction. We'll need to see how August and September continue to play out. The trend is generally continuing.
Do you know if the competition out there has also opened their order books early? There's some concern about the ability to import or price to where you have?
I think there's activity going on everywhere for domestic manufacturers right now.
All right. Well, guys, thanks very much. I'll pass it along. Thanks, Mike.
Thanks. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman from Citizens Bank. Jeff, your line is open.
Hey, everybody. I think Mike covered almost everything. I do have some follow-ups here. As I think about kind of this journey from 180,000 back to 300-plus thousand orders at some point in 2028 or 2029. I look at the margins on Transportation Solutions, right? Gross margins right now about 2%. At that level of production, we should be up in the 11%, 12% range. I look at what's going on in Parts & Services, and you're at 14% gross margins, and we should be kind of in that 25%-27% gross margin range. I'd just like to think through those businesses in terms of when business comes back, we make up 800-1,000 basis points in gross margin in Transportation Solutions. How much of that is going to be driven by just volumes getting higher?
How much of that needs to come from pricing rising 2 or 300 basis points? How much of that is going to come from mix normalizing versus where we are today? Can you just kind of help me through how we get there, or are we just at structurally lower margins because of what's happened in the market since the last cycle?
Yeah. I don't have exact numbers to give you, Jeff. I will say that the majority of it will absolutely come through price. When I talked about a 200-300 basis point improvement in the fourth quarter, there is going to be more price needed in 2027 to get back to what you're referring to as the historical margin profile. That's all related to exactly what Brent was talking about, and it's the recovering the inflationary cost fully that we've seen over the last 2-3 years. That's really what's dragging the profitability currently. We absolutely have line of sight to get that back. Then, there obviously will be a volume leverage play to it, just from what our contribution margin looks like and how much fixed costs.
Relatively, we have the fixed cost structure, to be able to get to those much higher production levels. There will certainly be a benefit in the margins related to volume leverage as well. A lot of it's coming directly from price.
Okay. On the Parts & Services side, we're talking about gross margins going from kind of this 14% level right now. I know you mentioned a lot of startup costs in these upfit centers that are dragging down on that. Where can those gross margins go in the next two to three years? How do we get it there?
Well, I think, just from a general perspective, we would expect over the next couple of years to at least being back in the mid to high teens in the way we would think about that. We have what I call meaningful categories inside of our parts business that are directly influenced by the kind of state of the OEM market right now. DuraPlate components are one of those. Tank heads are one of those. We have, from a proprietary parts standpoint with an aftermarket, is directly related to the state of the business, or state of the industry. Those are all areas that will naturally ramp up. They all have superior margins than what would flow through the P&L. Their mix contribution are substantial.
When they begin to ramp up, which from, I would just say, generally, you would expect to begin to layer in at the end of the third quarter, beginning of the fourth, just based off of the natural, call it, cycle of when those begin to creep in. There's nothing that we see that is not market centered in terms of how we naturally, call it, mix adjust those margins up. Now, there is a pricing element to that as well because there has been absolutely inflationary pressures there that have been difficult to pass along. Those are pricing recovery actions that we have initiated in Q2 based off of a changing market dynamic that we are executing, that will lay the groundwork when that volume begins to layer in.
Okay. If I think about market share, which is a little lower now than it used to be, some of that was because we got out of the reefer business. Maybe we get back into it this cycle. I'm kind of curious about the timing of that. Some of it is our competitors grew with other companies that were outgrowing the market. You've made the argument. I agree that because of the tariffs, because of the dumping and countervailing duties, there's an opportunity for the company to recapture market share. You've even expanded that ability to drive production and drive-in. How do we get the share back? What is the longer-term plan with Reefer? I know the tank market's about half of where it normally is right now in a cycle. Big opportunity for share. How do we go about recapturing it this cycle?
Let's start with tanks. Tanks, you're absolutely right. That market is substantially lower. We actually have grown market share there, arguably 800-plus basis points over the last two years. It just happens to be on fairly dismal market demand. Will we hold on to all of that when it climbs? There's some mixed aspects to it. Probably not, we think we've made some substantial gains. We just need the market to return. On the dry van side, we're sitting at about 23% market share as we think about 2026 right now. 23% is about where we were under most of the, call it 20-teens, as we executed a price over volume kind of centric way that really grew the gross margin of our trailer business.
Initially, 25% market share is kind of the first hurdle, and we think being able to not have to manage through the cycle on kind of an allocated basis and our ability to get a larger percentage of, say, given customers' split of orders is a big part of it. Another piece to it is being able to go out and prospect on a greater number of direct customers that can now make up the portfolio because we have capacity that we can actually count on throughout the cycle. Our dealers can have a larger level of allocation, which they had been on effectively for 15 years, plus or minus a couple of COVID years, in terms of what they had available.
In that, just making capacity available and sustainable is a tremendous shot in the arm in our ability to go out and win customers because they know that they can work with us through the cycle, not just at the beginning or the end. We can do that with reasonable pricing expectations. Pricing expectations that fit inside of what Pat's already laid out. That's the straightforward, kind of simple way that we think about it. There's all the differentiation in the way we take care of the customer that are precursors. The biggest thing is that we can go out and hunt, find, and cultivate customers with known capacity that can serve them over a cycle which they need to run their business.
Just FYI, one of your large national customers was musing on the conference call just a few hours ago on how they needed to start buying more trailers in 2026 and 2027. Just kind of supporting your comments earlier.
Appreciate it. That's all I have.
Thank you. Thank you. Thanks, Joe.
Thank you. We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now pass the call back to John Cummings for closing remarks. John, please go ahead. Thank you everybody for joining us today.
We look forward to following up with you throughout the quarter. Have a wonderful rest of your day.
Thank you everyone. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
