Precision Drilling Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Key Takeaways
- Precision Drilling Corporation reported second quarter 2026 revenues increased by 11% year over year, driven by growth in Canadian operations and rebounding U.S. activity.
- Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $97 million, down from $108 million in the prior year, with net earnings of a $1 million loss compared to $16 million earnings in Q2 2025.
- Canadian drilling activity averaged a record 61 active rigs in Q2, with daily operating margins of $13,855 including $3 million in upfront payments; normalized margins were $13,331 compared to $13,866 in Q2 2025.
- U.S. operations averaged 35 active rigs in Q2 with daily operating margins of US $6,212, below prior guidance due to reactivation costs despite higher revenue per utilization day.
- Internationally, Precision averaged seven active rigs with day rates decreasing 5% year over year; incurred $3 million in one-time restructuring charges related to closing the Dubai office.
- Capital expenditures totaled $76 million in Q2, including $46 million for sustaining and infrastructure and $30 million for rig upgrades.
- The company reduced debt by $50 million and repurchased $12 million in shares during the quarter.
- Precision’s contract book increased with 12 additional rigs contracted in Canada and nine in the U.S. compared to Q1.
- Technology advances include ongoing success with the Alpha Arms Robotics rig in the Montney, a grant for a rig floor robotic solution for a super Triple 1200 rig in Canada, and opening a Canadian Alpha Remote Operations Center in Calgary.
Outlook
- For Q3 2026, Canadian rig counts are expected to average between the low to mid 70s, up from 63 rigs in Q3 2025, with daily operating margins between $12,000 and $13,000.
- U.S. rig counts are expected in the low 40s, the highest since 2023, with daily operating margins forecasted between US $7,000 and US $8,000 due to ongoing reactivation costs.
- Margins in the U.S. are expected to improve to approach US $10,000 per day in Q4 2026.
- Internationally, eight rigs are expected to be active by mid-2027 following rig recertification and upgrades, with operating margins lower than prior year due to elevated costs from Middle East tensions.
- The Canadian CMP segment is expected to maintain EBITDA in line with prior year levels in Q3.
- Cash flow in Q3 is expected to be impacted by working capital build and semi-annual interest payments, with a rebound to normal levels anticipated in Q4.
- The Canadian market outlook remains strong due to infrastructure projects, lower breakeven costs, and return of foreign capital, supporting increased industry activity.
- In the U.S., gas activity is expected to be steady with some temporary pauses in the northeast, while supportive oil pricing may encourage rig additions or service provider upgrades.
Guidance
- Full year 2026 capital expenditures are budgeted at $265 million, comprising $172 million for sustaining and infrastructure and $93 million for rig upgrades, weighted more towards Canada.
- Full year depreciation is expected at $320 million, with cash interest expense around $45 million.
- The effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 25% to 30%, with low business cash taxes anticipated in 2026 and increases in Canada in 2027.
- Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is expected to remain flat at approximately $95 million before share-based compensation expense.
- Share-based compensation expense guidance for 2026 ranges between $25 million and $45 million, based on a share price range of $100 to $140.
- The company plans to reduce debt by $100 million in 2026 and allocate up to 50% of free cash flow to share repurchases.
- Average cost of debt is 6.7%, with total liquidity over $502 million.
- Regarding the 2018 Canada Revenue Agency reassessment notice, Precision intends to vigorously contest it and any additional reassessments, believing its tax filing position is appropriate.
- Potential maximum liability disclosed is $155 million plus interest, with an estimated $40 million payment due late 2026 to early 2027, payable via cash or letter of credit.
- Capital allocation plans remain unchanged despite the tax issue.
Executive Comments
- Precision Drilling is delivering on its 2026 strategic priorities by growing revenue, expanding contracted business, upgrading rigs, and increasing activity in Canada and the U.S.
- The U.S. reactivation costs are viewed as temporary investments in crew training, equipment recertification, and technology to ensure flawless rig activations, positioning the company for margin improvement starting in Q4 2026.
- The company has increased its customer base from 25 to 30 globally, primarily growing in the U.S.
- Technology initiatives include the Alpha Arms Robotics rig outperforming benchmarks in the Montney and a grant to develop a robotic solution for a super Triple 1200 rig in Canada.
- The Canadian Alpha Remote Operations Center opening will enhance real-time collaboration and operational expertise for Canadian customers.
- International operations are being streamlined with the Dubai office closure to reduce costs, focusing on an eight-rig business scale for the foreseeable future.
- The Kuwait rig reactivation involves capital expenditures of $12 to $15 million, expected to be recouped within the first two years of a five-year contract plus extensions.
- The company is targeting existing U.S. customers aligned with its digital technology and safety philosophies, aiming for a more resilient and stable business with longer-term contracts typically ranging from six months to one year.
- Pricing in the U.S. is increasing, with some contracts seeing rate hikes of up to $5,000 per day, while Canadian pricing increases are muted but present in certain rig classes.
- The company expects to exceed $10,000 daily operating margins in the U.S. in 2027 as reactivation costs diminish and activity increases.
- The Canadian market is supported by infrastructure projects, lower breakeven costs, and foreign capital return, with full utilization of super single and super triple fleets expected by year-end.
- The U.S. market presents opportunities for activity growth and margin expansion, despite some seasonal pauses in the northeast.
Q&A
- In Q3 2026, approximately five rigs are expected to be reactivated in the U.S., fewer than the seven reactivations in Q2.
- Reactivation costs in the U.S. are estimated between $1,500 and $2,000 per day, including extra labor for crew training and equipment readiness.
- Q4 2026 U.S. margins are expected to approach $10,000 per day, reflecting normal activity levels without significant reactivation costs.
- Regarding the Canada Revenue Agency reassessment, the maximum potential liability is $155 million plus interest, with an estimated $40 million payment due late 2026 to early 2027.
- The company plans to contest the reassessment vigorously and believes its tax position is appropriate; cash outlays could be reimbursed with interest if successful.
- Tax pools would cover the reassessed years but would accelerate cash tax payments, impacting cash flow timing but not capital allocation plans.
- In the Middle East, minor operational disruptions occurred due to flight cancellations and airport closures, increasing costs.
- Precision expects to operate eight rigs in the Middle East for the foreseeable future, with capital expenditures of $12 to $15 million for the Kuwait rig reactivation spread over 2026 and 2027.
- The U.S. market currently favors six-month to one-year term contracts, with some customers preferring two-year contracts; rate increases have been pushed through, with some contracts seeing increases up to $5,000 per day.
- The company's U.S. strategy focuses on expanding business with existing customers aligned with its technology and safety standards, onboarding new key customers, and creating a more resilient business with stable activity and better fixed cost absorption.
- In the U.S. northeast, some customers pause drilling programs seasonally, often drilling early in the year, pausing, then resuming later; standby rates are paid for rigs on contract during pauses.
- Crews in the northeast tend to be local and are typically redeployed within the region to maintain employment during rig pauses.
- The rigs expected to be added in Q4 in the U.S. are a mix of public and private operators, with at least two rig additions displacing competitors.
- The company is not eager to move rigs out of the northeast region despite pauses, valuing its operations and customer relationships there.
- Pricing increases in Canada are muted but present for super singles and super triples, with some rigs deployed in Q3 and Q4 expected to positively impact fleet pricing.
- The company has about 50 rigs that are warm and upgraded in the U.S. and expects to increase rig count beyond current levels before year-end, depending on customer demand and market conditions.
- Reactivation expenses are expected to diminish as rig activity increases and the number of reactivations slows, leading to more resilient margins in 2027.
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Precision Drilling Corporation 2026 second quarter results conference call and webcast. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised today's conference is being recorded. I would now turn the conference over to your speaker today, Lavonne Zdunich, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Thank you, operator, and welcome everyone.
Today I am joined by Cary Ford, President and CEO, and Dustin Honing, our CFO. Yesterday, we reported our second quarter results, highlighted by robust heavy oil drilling and well service activity in Canada and improving rig utilization in the U.S. Cary and Dustin will review these results, provide an operational update and outlook commentary. Once we have finalized our prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. Please note that some comments today will refer to non-IFRS financial measures and include forward-looking statements, which are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. For more information on financial measures, forward-looking statements and risk factors, please refer to our news release and other regulatory filings available on SEDAR+ and EDGAR. As a reminder, we express our financial results in Canadian dollars unless otherwise stated. Cary, over to you. Thank you, Lavonne, and good morning and good afternoon.
Before I hand the call over to Dustin, I would like to make a few comments on the progress toward our 2026 strategic priorities. This year, Precision Drilling aims to grow revenue through a differentiated service offering and deepening customer relationships while generating cash flow and returning it to shareholders through debt reduction and share repurchases. Halfway through the year, we are delivering on these priorities. We have grown year-to-date revenue by 8%, significantly expanded our contract book of business, executed contracted upgrades and increased activity in both Canada and the U.S. We are on track to meet our return of capital commitments. In short, we are delivering on what we set out to accomplish in 2026. With that, I will turn the call over to Dustin to discuss the financial results released yesterday evening in detail.
Thank you, Cary. For our second quarter 2026, revenues increased by 11% from prior year, driven by growing momentum in our Canadian operations and rebounding activity levels in the U.S. Our operating expenses were disproportionately impacted by several U.S. rig activations. That was, we moved from a low of 32 rigs operating in April to an exit of 42 rigs operating on June 30th. Results this quarter also included CAD 3 million in costs related to restructuring our international operation. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was CAD 97 million, which equates to CAD 95 million before share-based compensation recovery, compared to prior year Q2 EBITDA of CAD 108 million or CAD 112 million before share-based compensation expense. Net earnings were a loss of CAD 1 million compared to net earnings of CAD 16 million in the second quarter of 2025. Precision generated CAD 146 million of cash from operations, equivalent to the second quarter of 2025.
Capital expenditures were CAD 76 million, comprised of CAD 46 million for sustaining and infrastructure and CAD 30 million for rig upgrades. These investments were made in step with our shareholder returns program, reducing debt by CAD 50 million and allocating CAD 12 million towards share buybacks during the quarter. Moving on to our operating segments. In Canada, Q2 drilling activity averaged an all-time record 61 active rigs, an increase of 11 rigs from Q2 2025 and one rig higher than prior guidance. Our reported Q2 daily operating margins were CAD 13,855, inclusive of CAD 3 million in customer upfront payments for upgrades, compared to CAD 15,306 in the second quarter of 2025, which was inclusive of CAD 7 million in upfront payments. Absent these upfront payments, normalized Q2 daily operating margins were CAD 13,331, compared with CAD 13,866 in the second quarter of 2025, exceeding the upper limit of our prior guidance range.
Compared to prior year, Precision normalized operating margins were slightly impacted by rig mix, with a higher proportion of Super Singles and doubles working through the spring. In the U.S., we averaged 35 active rigs, compared to an average of 37 sequentially from Q1 and an increase from the 33 rigs we had prior year Q2. Our daily operating margins for the quarter were CAD 6,212, compared to CAD 9,291 sequentially from Q1, falling below our prior guidance range. Although revenue per utilization day increased due to stronger pricing and increased technology adoption, margins were negatively impacted by reactivation costs this quarter as Precision exited Q2 with 42 active rigs, ahead of our prior guidance exit rig count. Internationally, Precision averaged seven active rigs, relatively in line with prior year Q2 activity levels. International day rates averaged CAD 50,524, a decrease of 5% from prior year.
During the quarter, rig margins were unfavorably impacted by rig mix, with one Kuwait rig idled, offset by one additional rig working in Saudi Arabia. Operating expenses were again impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, and we also incurred CAD 3 million of one-time restructuring charges from closing our office in Dubai. This restructuring is expected to generate annualized savings of CAD 3 million per year. Our CMP segment adjusted EBITDA was CAD 14 million, CAD 4 million higher than prior year Q2. Strong fundamentals in the Canadian market drove increased well servicing demand, primarily in the heavy oil regions. Moving on to forward guidance, I will begin with our expectations for the third quarter of 2026. Starting in Canada, our strong presence in Canada's heavy oil and unconventional natural gas and condensate markets is expected to generate continued activity growth from prior year levels.
For the third quarter, we expect to average rig counts to average in between the low to the mid-70s, which compares to an average of 63 rigs working prior year Q3. As a result of more Super Singles working, our daily operating margins in Canada are expected to range between CAD 12,000 and CAD 13,000. Our expectation is that pricing will remain firm within our Super Single and Super Triple fleet throughout 2026. In the U.S., our third quarter average rig count is expected to be in the low 40s, our highest level since 2023. The coming quarter will again be impacted by reactivations, with daily operating margins expected to range between US$7,000 and US$8,000. Our business remains focused on demonstrating margin enhancement following these reactivations, with daily operating margins expected to approach US$10,000 in Q4.
Internationally, we expect to run seven rigs with operating margins lower than prior year due to elevated operating costs in response to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Early in Q2, Precision secured a five-year contract for our idled Kuwait rig, bringing our expected international rig count to eight rigs working by mid-2027, following planned recertification and upgrade work. Our CMP business continues to generate strong free cash flow, driven by our well servicing and surface rental business lines. For Q3, we expect EBITDA to remain in line with prior year levels. Regarding cash flow, we anticipate Q3 to be a heavier working capital build quarter due to recent activity ramp-up in the Canadian and U.S. operations, in combination with our semi-annual interest payment. In Q4, we expect cash generation to rebound to normal levels.
Moving to guidance for the full year 2026, our capital expenditures budget remains at CAD 265 million, which is comprised of CAD 172 million for sustaining and infrastructure and CAD 93 million for upgrades, which remains more weighted to Canada. Full-year depreciation is expected to be CAD 320 million, and cash interest expense from debt is expected to be approximately CAD 45 million. Our effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 25%-30%. PD expects business cash taxes to remain low in 2026, with cash taxes increasing in Canada in 2027. On the tax front, I'll also address our 2018 notice of reassessment from the Canada Revenue Agency, just received late July. As disclosed in our press release, Precision will file a notice of objection that intends to vigorously contest this, as well as any additional reassessments that may be issued by the CRA.
The company and its tax advisors believe that our tax filing position is appropriate. We will provide updates as we work through and resolve this issue in the future. For 2026, we expect SG&A to stay flat at approximately CAD 95 million before share-based compensation expense. As previously communicated, share-based compensation guidance for the year would range between CAD 25 million and CAD 45 million, assuming a share price range of CAD 100 to CAD 140 and a one times multiplier. Our long-term target to achieve net debt to adjusted EBITDA of less than one times remains firmly in place. In 2026, we plan to reduce debt by levels by CAD 100 million while allocating up to 50% of free cash flow to share repurchases. At the mid-year mark, we have already reduced debt by CAD 75 million and repurchased CAD 16 million worth of shares.
Today, we have an average cost of debt of 6.7% and over CAD 502 million in total liquidity. With that, I'll pass it back to Carey.
Thank you, Dustin. For my prepared remarks, I plan to cover three areas. First, progress on growing revenue in line with our first 2026 strategic priority. Second, an update on our international business. Finally, our North American activity outlook. For the company, second quarter revenue increased 11% year-over-year with a 14% increase in North American operations, offset by an 11% decrease internationally. The Precision team has delivered revenue growth by completing contracted drilling rig upgrades in North America and by demonstrating differentiated technology-driven performance. The progress on contracted upgrades and deepening customer relationships in the second quarter is reflected in the increase in our contract book, with fourth quarter contracts increasing by 12 rigs in Canada and nine rigs in the U.S. compared to our prior Q1 disclosure in April.
On the topic of deepening customer relationships, in addition to rig upgrades and contracts, we view this to mean partnering with our customers, scaling digital technology and operational improvements across multiple rigs, and in many cases, providing greater flexibility for our customers to execute their drilling plans with Precision. I mentioned at the beginning of this year that Precision had multiple drilling rigs with 25 different customers globally and that we wanted this number to grow. Today, that number is 30 customers, and it is growing primarily in the U.S. Staying with the U.S., we have made significant progress not only in growing revenue, but also in strengthening the business. We have increased our active rig count by 30% since our last conference call, expanded activity with existing customers, and further concentrated operations in our core markets. We expect reactivation costs and rig churn to continue through the third quarter.
The foundation we have built positions us for meaningful margin improvement beginning in the fourth quarter and continuing into 2027. The U.S. reactivation costs are certainly a temporary drag on margins, but we view the expenditure as an investment. We are investing in crew training and development, equipment recertification, and technology-driven startup plans to ensure flawless rig activations. This strategy is paying off. This past quarter, we had several startups in the Permian and multiple customers who, after working with Precision for a short period, began discussing with our team the addition of a second rig. On the technology front, I want to highlight three recent developments. First, progress on robotics continues with Precision's AlphaARMS robotics rig working for a major in the Montney, continuously outpacing pacesetter wells and setting efficiency and speed records.
This technology has been continuously operated for the past two and a half years with 54 wells drilled, over three million feet of tubulars handled hands-free, and 17,000 man-free hours on the rig floor. Second, this summer, Precision Drilling was awarded a grant from Emissions Reduction Alberta to support the pursuit of a rig floor robotics solution for a Super Triple 1200 rig in the Canadian market. Engineering and planning are well underway, and we are in discussions with multiple Canadian customers about our next robotics rig in the country. In addition, we continue to have conversations about AlphaARMS with key existing and potential customers in the U.S. Finally, on the technology front, next month, we will open our Canadian Alpha Remote Operations Center on the seventh floor of our Calgary headquarters.
The Calgary ARO complements our Houston ARO capabilities by bringing real-time collaboration and local drilling engineering expertise closer to the Canadian customers while remaining connected to Houston's broader operational expertise. As the scope of remote support expands, the two centers will operate as a single network, bringing together operations, sales, engineering, and other functions across our two headquarters to collaborate on a broader range of rig activities. If you are interested in learning more about how Precision utilizes real-time data-driven insights to drive performance and exceed customer expectations, and you plan to be in Calgary or Houston, please reach out to a member of the Precision team. We would love to give you a tour. For an update on our international operations, I want to once again recognize Precision's leadership and crews for their performance over the past few months amidst a dynamic regional environment.
In the face of these challenges, our team continues to focus on personnel safety and with all seven rigs on delivering excellent results for our customers. As Dustin has covered, we are planning for our eighth rig activation next year. During the quarter, we streamlined our regional structure by closing our Dubai office and relocating leadership closer to our customers in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The move also helps reduce our cost structure in a region where we expect to have eight rigs running for the foreseeable future. In Argentina, we, along with our partner, continue to have active conversations with all major operators about potential rig deployments in the region and will update the market as those discussions progress. Moving on to our North American outlook. We expect the Canadian market to continue to demonstrate strength for the foreseeable future.
Precision continues to deliver for customers in the most active Canadian regions with 32 Super Triple rigs available to work in the Montney and related gas and condensate producing areas and 48 Super Single rigs available to work in SAGD applications, the Clearwater, and other heavy oil regions. We are running 75 rigs today and expect to reach 80 rigs within the next two weeks. We expect to have full utilization of our Super Triple and Super Single fleets between now and the end of the year and to maintain activity levels between 70 and 80 rigs during the third and fourth quarters.
Our Canadian drilling fleet continues to advance. We will deliver our 20th Super Single pad rig in September and major Super Triple upgrades in October and November, further expanding our ability to deliver for our customers. The outlook for our CMP segment in Canada is also positive. Despite one of the wettest Q2s on record, our business delivered exceptional financial performance with year-over-year growth in activity, revenue, and EBITDA. Our industry leadership position, crew and rig quality, and support systems continue to meet increasing customer requirements in Canada. Q3 is off to a solid start with over 80 rigs working in the field today. In the U.S., in an effort to reposition the business, Precision is meeting a growing set of opportunities with high-quality Super Series assets, a leading digital technology platform, exceptional crews, and robust operational support systems.
Our strategy is working not only through increased activity and customer concentration, but also through onboarding new key customers. Based on our conversations with customers, we expect gas activity to be steady with some temporary pauses in the Northeast drilling programs this fall. Supportive oil pricing presenting an opportunity for our customers to either add a rig or high grade their existing service provider. We believe this market presents an excellent backdrop for Precision to increase activity and expand margins between now and the end of the year, setting the foundation for continued success in 2027. I would like to conclude by thanking the Precision crews, field leadership, and all Precision employees for their commitment to safety, customer service, and dedication to Precision. With that, I will hand the call back to the operator for questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to move yourself from the queue, please press star one one again. We'll pause for a moment while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Aaron MacNeil with TD Cowen. Your line is open. Hey, everyone.
Thanks for taking my questions. We're fielding a lot of questions on the U.S. margin guide for the third quarter. I guess, what assumptions are you making around both the number of rigs being reactivated in Q3 as well as the quantum in total dollars, and how would that have compared to the second quarter?
Sorry, I'll let Dustin talk about the reactivations cost and the number of reactivations, and I'll give a little bit of commentary about the market backdrop.
Yeah. Aaron, on the reactivation front, in Q2, we moved, as you know, from 32 rigs up to 42. We had seven, what we'd call seven major reactivations during that timeframe, that climb certainly exceeded our expectations. We thought we would exit with the rig count in the high thirties, really good traction in Q2, but certainly had some impact on margin. When you look at Q3, it's a bit of a more of a rebalancing. We're seeing more increased opportunity in the Permian. On a per-day basis, think of a reactivation cost ranging between CAD 1,500 to upward of CAD 2,000 a day.
That's inclusive of the extra labor required to make sure that we can hit the ground running, we can crew these rigs adequately, and we are ready to go and execute for our customers.
Yeah, I'll just add, you know, we're guiding to kinda low forties rig count in Q3, and that's a result of activating rigs in oil basins. I mentioned in my comments that we expect a couple of our customers to have pauses in their programs in Q4, which kind of looks for a two or three-month pause before picking up rigs again in November and December. That's why we have reactivations with effectively a flat guide.
Gotcha. Sorry, maybe just another clarification. Like, you guys had mentioned that there was the seven reactivations more in the second quarter. How many are being reactivated in the third quarter or switching basins as you described it?
I think we're expecting to have about five rigs reactivated- Gotcha.
Okay. No, perfect. in the third quarter.
Okay, great. Then- Since everybody would have the question about when does the reactivation period pause, we've given guidance for Q4 margins of approaching CAD 10,000 a day to kind of point to where when we have kind of normal activity levels without a high number of reactivations where we expect margins to shake out.
Makes sense. Dustin, maybe a follow-up on this CRA issue. In the event that you're ultimately on the hook for these penalties, how do the tax pools come into play? Maybe just a bigger picture, like, do you see it as impacting sort of your return of capital commitments?
I'm not going to go into specifics, but let me just go through the contingency announcement. I'm sure others would have questions. First and foremost, I'll start by saying that we have a very strong conviction in our position. Our external advisors believe that our filing position is appropriate. Although we think it's highly unlikely, Aaron, the max liability that we disclosed for any potential future reassessments on this issue would be CAD 155 million plus interest. To defend our position as a large scale business case, PD would be required to make an upfront payment of 50% of the assessed amount and the interest. I would say think of that as about CAD 80 million all in, paid out over two years.
It's difficult to estimate as far as timing, this has been quite sudden, but our estimate today is about CAD 40 million. That would be due late 2026 or into early 2027, the rest would be spread over the next 24 months. We could do either a letter of credit, cash, or a combination of both. That is yet to be determined. If we are successful defending our position, we would be reimbursed any cash that we put into this plus interest. You know, I would also state that these processes, they do take a long time. This is likely several years, but we'll be sure to report on progress in a timely manner. As far as the cash outlay, whether it's a letter of credit or cash, that's to be determined.
Our plans as far as capital allocation and how we manage the business hasn't changed at all. This is an issue that came up. We will work to get through this with the CRA, and we'll move forward.
Sorry, on the tax pools, like I'm not a tax expert at all, are you able to offset that cash outlay with existing tax pools, or is it a cash outlay?
The tax pools would cover the years in, that we flag to in reassessment, but it would accelerate us becoming cash taxable, that would be a cash outlay payment in a worst case scenario.
Gotcha. Okay. Thanks, everyone. I'll turn it back.
Yeah, for sure. Our next question comes from Keith Mackey with RBC Capital Markets.
Your line is open. Hey, thanks.
Good morning. Maybe just starting on the Middle East reactivation, can you just maybe, Carey, speak more broadly what you're seeing in the Middle East now as far as operations, continuity, incremental costs, disruptions, et cetera? Then for the reactivation of the Kuwait rig, what are you seeing as far as reactivation costs, and do you expect those to be incurred in 2026 or 2027?
Yeah. Okay. More broadly in the region, we've had minor disruptions in activity, measured in single-digit numbers of days over the course of the quarter. There has been disruptions on primarily getting people in and out of the countries with flights getting canceled and airports being closed. That's been the main driver of increased cost. In terms of the opportunity set, we have six rigs in Kuwait, four working today. We have the fifth one going to work next year. We'll have one idle rig that we'll continue to market. In Saudi Arabia, we effectively have three rigs that are running, and we expect those to run into the foreseeable future. That really explains the opportunity set for Precision. We've looked at a lot of growth opportunities that require new capital outside of our existing fleet.
What we've seen in recent years is just that the paybacks on that capital investment are way too long for us to be deploying new capital. We have a business that's, I wouldn't say it's optimal scale, but it's appropriate scale. It generates a lot of cash flow, and it's a good foundation for if market conditions change to where the returns become more attractive, we'll be able to grow. I think I made the comment in my opening remarks that we kind of see this as an eight-rig business for the foreseeable future, and that's how we're positioning it. That really drove into our decision on streamlining our operations and closing our Dubai office, because the Dubai office was, I would say, was put in place for us to grow the business beyond an eight-rig business.
I think for the foreseeable future, we're going to be maximizing margins and cash flow. In terms of the eighth rig, the rig going back to work in Kuwait, there'll be some capital spend this year, a lot more next year. Think of it kind of in the mid-double digits, kind of in the CAD 12 million-CAD 15 million capital range, that we would recoup that within the first couple of years of the five-year plus two one-year extensions contract that we're signing.
Okay. Very detailed. Appreciate the comments. Appreciate that you've added a lot of rigs to your contract book in the U.S. this quarter. Can you just speak to your strategy there as far as what you expect to contract? One of your competitors just talked about having 50% of their rigs on six-month-plus contracts, and the customer is sort of the gating factor as far as how they do that. What's your approach to term versus spot in this market? Do you see a lot of opportunity to increase margins by getting better rates in the spot market, or are you looking to contract more on a longer-term basis with strategic customers?
Okay. I think you've covered all the points on the marketing strategy. Let's see if I can hit those. We are seeing rate increases, and we have pushed through rate increases. Some of those showed up in our Q2 day rate numbers, we expect the rates to continue to move up throughout the course of the year. That's just a general comment on rates. As far as term, there's some customer-specific preferences on whether they want a shorter-term contract or a longer-term contract. A lot of it's driven by where the market is. I would characterize the market today as being a, call it a six-month to one-year term market.
We have a few customers that want two-year contracts, but I would say that it's moved a little bit longer term in the past couple of months as customers are looking to lock up high-quality rigs. It's still in that kind of six months to a year type timeframe. In terms of strategy, I covered this in my opening remarks. I would just point back to how we started the year, what we communicated at our investment day in March. This is deliberate. We're not going after activity and scale for activity and scale's sake. We want to target our existing customers. We want to expand our existing business, our business with existing customers. We do have a handful of target customers within the U.S. market. The ones that we think are really well-aligned with our philosophies on digital technology and safety and performance.
We are making progress on onboarding some new customers. We're really excited about that. The last comment I would make is, we're trying to create a more resilient business that will have more stable activity, that will help with business planning, that will help with spreading our fixed cost over a larger number of rigs, and align with the customer base that really value what we can offer. I would just say that we're executing exactly how we want to. We're not where we want to be yet. We're making good progress. Some margin pressure in Q2 and Q3 as a result of successes, something we're willing to live with. Got it. Thanks very much. That's it for me. Okay, thanks, Kate.
Our next question comes from Derek Potthast here with Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Hey, everyone.
Wanted to go back to U.S. land and kind of talk through some of these rig moves. You exited the quarter at 42. Sounds like you're expecting another five rigs to be reactivated. That brings you up to 47. Appreciate the guide of low 40s because you have some rig churn up in the Northeast, some pausing that you've already talked about. Just trying to think through 4Q and into 2027 is 47 rigs kind of the right starting point if all those rigs get contracted for 2027? You also talked about supply. I'm just trying to think through these, like, reactivation expenses into 2027, you know, maybe your supply stack of how many rigs could go back to work.
Just trying to work through the upside here and if my numbers are right on that 42 plus five, kind of a starting level at 47. Just a helper on that would be great.
Okay, Derek, I think you're doing some pretty good math there. You know, we don't want to guide to an average rig count for Q4, but I would say that today, with our rig reactivations and some rigs, you know, pausing their programs for just a little bit, we have around 50 rigs that are warm and, you know, upgraded, warm, have recently worked, that won't require any reactivation costs to go back to work. I think in an environment with the oil price where we see it today and, you know, gas prices being constructive around CAD 3, we should hit a rig count of high 40s before the end of the year.
Now I'm not guiding to an average rig count in a particular quarter that high, and I'm not guiding to an average rig count in Q4 that high. I do think that with customer conversations we have going right now and warm rigs available, we should be able to increase our rig count beyond where it is today.
Okay. That's super helpful. Just thinking about that'll be approaching the 10,000 margin, I think it's at, like, fourth quarter. If you don't have any other big major reactivations in 2027, will that continue to trend higher? If the demand's there, do you have the available capacity to continue doing these reactivations? I'm basically just trying to work out, like, how long we've got to deal with the reactivation expenses before we see that margin inflection, which it sounds like you're getting closer to, but just wanted to extend that out to 2027 a little bit.
Yeah. I think you've got a couple things. In that equation, you've got a numerator, denominator, and the rig reactivation costs on a per-day basis were highly impactful when we're running 35 rigs in a quarter. You know, reactivating a large number of rigs in a quarter when our activity levels are pretty low, it's high on a per-day basis. As our rig activity increases, and the number of reactivations slows down, we should be able to have more resilient margins if, you know, all else equal that the pricing in the market is stable.
Got it. Okay. Great, Carey. Super helpful. I'll turn it back. Thanks. Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone.
Our next question comes from Tim Monticello with ATB Cormark Capital Markets. Your line is open. Thanks for taking my question.
Most of them have been answered, but maybe just a quick follow-up on those, the assumptions around that CAD 10,000 margin in Q4. Can you talk a little bit, I guess, the pace of pricing increases that you're seeing in the market? Like, are you implying any rig reactivation costs in Q4?
Well, first of all, on rig reactivations, I think they would be relatively minor. I think, if there's, you know, a few reactivations or less, I think that margin guidance holds. In terms of pricing increases, I would say that the range of pricing increases in the U.S. market, for some customers, where maybe they've got a recent upgraded rig and the contract's rolling off, but it was already at a high day rate, maybe the increase is low single digit thousands of CAD a day. For some customers where the rig was, for whatever reason, a little bit below market, we're seeing rate increases of up to CAD 5,000 a day.
I would say spread across our fleet, it would be in the, you know, maybe CAD 500-CAD 1,000 a day per quarter type increase. Tim, I'd also add that if you look back over the last several quarters in the U.S., even with lower activity levels, we were consistently running an operating margin around that CAD 9,000 a day mark. Fixed cost absorption, I think we can better incur any unforeseen reactivation opportunities. The pricing opportunities that Carey mentioned that we're pushing through right now, I think that's an attainable target. For Q4. I would also say that we'd expect to exceed that next year, all equal.
This is, we're trying to put a mark out there for Q4 to help people kind of understand when the dust settles, where do we think margins will be in the fourth quarter. That's not our goal to have it end with our margins at that level.
Got it. On CapEx, the number in the quarter centered around the high end of the previous CapEx range for the year. Can you talk about, I guess, what solidified in the outlook to drive to the higher end? Do you see further opportunities to deploy more capital in terms of CapEx this year? Do you think that's sort of they can drive at this point?
We messaged Q2 as disproportionately higher in our capital spending. There was some deliveries that did trickle into Q3, I would say our program is a little bit more front-weighted, especially there'll be more in the third quarter. We talked about the major Super Triple upgrades going on in Canada. There's two of those. That spend has been underway, and it will continue into Q3 and at the beginning of Q4 with those rigs are mobilized and deployed. I think overall comment I'd make, Tim, is we feel really comfortable with that CAD 265 budget, and that allows us to further recognize some activity increases in the U.S. We mentioned the warm rigs that we have available. If you look at the majority of our reactivation expense, has been in expense, not capitalized. We're pretty comfortable at that CAD 265 number.
Okay. I haven't heard much about pricing increases in Canada, it does sound like activity levels through the back half of the year should be pretty strong. You talked about in your full utilization, your Super Singles and Super Triples. Are you seeing any signs of momentum in Canadian pricing at all?
I think for our Super Singles, particularly with all the pad Super Singles and the Super Triples we have working in the Montney, the opportunities to raise rates there are muted. We have raised some rates for that rig class. Then we do, as I mentioned, have some rigs that are getting deployed in the third and fourth quarter upgrades, which would have a positive impact to the fleet pricing because they're top-of-the-market rigs. I think there's a little bit of opportunity to move rates, I would say broadly, we're not quite seeing it yet.
Okay. I appreciate it. Then I guess just one quick one on the pause that you're seeing in the Northeast. Is that related to a specific customer or a couple customers' activity programs? Are they moving from one customer to another?
No. It does relate to two or three different customers in the region. It's really how they execute their drilling programs. A lot of times, they will drill wells in the first two, three quarters of the year, pause, and then frack the wells and then start drilling again. This is not a new seasonal impact that we've seen, but it's highlighted where we're reactivating rigs and have a flat overall rig counts. We're kind of making note of it for the market.
Okay. Understood. I appreciate all the detail on that.
Our next question comes from John Daniel with Daniel Energy Partners. Your line is open. Hey, guys.
Thanks for including me. The incremental rigs which you expect to go to work in Q4 in the U.S., would those largely be for public or private operators? Do you see any of those additions being used to displace your competition?
It's a mix of public and privates. Maybe the rig additions that we see in the near term would be more weighted towards publics for Precision. I think the first half of the year is mostly privates, now it's more publics. We at least have 2 opportunities where we're displacing with 2 rig adds where we know we're displacing a competitor.
Okay. Got it. Going back to the Marcellus for a second. I know that a number of those operators have first half-weighted budgets, so this isn't new. In prior cycles, if you will, have there been periods where you guys get paid a standby rate during when the rigs are released? Or is the market strong enough where you might contemplate moving that rig to another basin? What would it take for you to come to that decision to do so?
Okay. I would first say that we really like the Northeast. We like our rig fleet there, our operation, our reputation, and our customers. We're not eager to move a rig out of the Northeast just to keep our rig count in the U.S. higher. I think it would take a lot to move a rig out of there. Second of all, if a rig is on contract and a customer pauses, we would get a standby rate. We have had instances where customers will not have a rig on contract, but they want to either keep the crew warm or give us some economic incentive to keep the rig kind of marked as theirs. We do sometimes have those types of arrangements.
Okay. It's a bit of a mixed bag.
Mixed bag. Fair enough. Well, do those crews, when the rigs go down, do you recycle them to other basins to keep them working? How do you handle the labor situation?
We would typically do that. The Northeast is a bit different, where a lot of the crews are local, we would try to work them on other rigs in the region if we can.
Got it. Okay. Thank you very much.
All right. John. I'm not showing any further questions at this time.
I'd like to turn the call back over to Lavon for any closing remarks.
Thank you everyone for joining today and taking the time to learn a little bit more about Precision Drilling. Should you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to the investor relations team. Thank you again. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.
This does conclude today's presentation. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.
