POSCO Holdings Inc. American Depositary Shares (Each representing 1/4th of a share of Common Stock) Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Key Takeaways
- POSCO Holdings reported consolidated revenue of 19.3 trillion won and operating profit of 820 billion won in the second quarter of 2026, marking a 16% increase in operating profit quarter-on-quarter.
- All key sectors including steel, rechargeable battery materials, and energy showed gains compared to the previous quarter.
- The Argentina lithium business recorded its first ever quarterly profit, contributing to the rechargeable battery materials sector transitioning to a surplus for the first time in nine quarters.
- POSCO registered operating profit of 270 billion won, a 60 billion won gain over the previous quarter.
- Quarterly EBITDA was 1.9 trillion won and CapEx was 2 trillion won in Q2, totaling 3.7 trillion won for the first half of 2026.
- Steel business profits improved by 58 billion won quarter-on-quarter despite challenges from the Middle East conflict and foreign exchange volatility.
- POSCO International recorded its highest quarterly profits, driving a 22% profit growth quarter-on-quarter.
- Divestments of PSS and Chinese subsidiaries were completed, registering a one-off divestment profit in net profit.
- POSCO Holdings reported a fatality at POSCO Yan in June and is strengthening safety management across 33 affiliates with plans to identify corrective actions by October.
- POSCO signed an investment agreement with Australia-based Mineral Resources for a lithium DLI demonstration JV planned for October 2026.
- The future materials business is progressing with recalibration of NCM CAM lines and construction of a new plant by end of 2027.
- POSCO Air Solution completed a high purity rare gas plant in June 2026, requiring certification before profit generation.
- POSCO International signed a rare earth business partnership with US Rare Element Technologies, targeting commercial production by 2028 with a $200 million project cost.
- POSCO completed a 2.5 million tonne EAF in June 2026, currently in early operation stage, aiming to produce high-grade steel to meet environmental regulations.
- Twelve restructuring projects in H1 2026 generated 475.4 billion won in additional cash, mainly from divesting steel operations in China, with expected 3.5 trillion won free cash flow by 2028.
Outlook
- POSCO expects visible performance gains in Q3 2026 despite some raw material cost increases, offset by increased production and sales price adjustments.
- Rechargeable battery materials sector growth is expected to continue, although a temporary slowdown may occur in Q3 due to seasonal factors and equipment replacement at the Argentina lithium plant.
- Full operation and long-term supply agreements at the Argentina lithium plant are expected to drive meaningful performance improvements in Q4 2026.
- Steel business will gradually adjust prices in response to fuel and raw material cost increases, monitoring market and client conditions closely.
- POSCO plans to focus on premium steel products in automotive and shipbuilding sectors, with conservative pricing in home electronics due to production base shifts to Southeast Asia.
- Despite EU quota system implementation and temporary tariffs on hot rolled products, POSCO aims to minimize impact through government negotiations and focus on high margin products.
- China is expected to reduce low-grade steel production and replace it with high-grade premium steel, aligning with POSCO's strategy.
- POSCO plans to ramp up utilization of the Gwangyang EAF to improve profitability and production volume starting next year.
Guidance
- POSCO Holdings expects Q3 2026 operating profit to improve compared to Q2, including costs from the Gwangyang EAF operation.
- Argentina lithium business plans pre-feasibility study by end of 2026 and final investment decision by end of 2027 for phase three and four expansions targeting lithium carbonate production.
- Decisions on expanding hard rock lithium production will be made flexibly by end of 2027 based on market conditions and partnerships.
- POSCO will continue to monitor lithium price fluctuations, incorporating potential impacts of new mine operations in Australia and elsewhere into its plans.
- Shareholder return policy includes allocating 10% of equity divestment proceeds to returns, estimated at 350 billion won, while 90% will fund CapEx.
- Equity divestments may reduce dividend payments by approximately 80 billion won annually, with expected profit growth from new plants offsetting this in about four years.
- POSCO aims to create a premium market for carbon-reduced steel to offset increased costs from EAF operations.
- POSCO plans to continue R&D on sodium ion batteries and launch CAM and AAM products in line with customer plans.
Executive Comments
- Kim Seung-Jun, Head of Finance, highlighted the rising profit curve despite energy supply risks and currency depreciation, noting the first quarterly profit in Argentina lithium business and the RBM sector's transition to surplus.
- POSCO management emphasized commitment to profit enhancement and strategic investments for future growth pillars.
- Noh Sung-Nae, Marketing Office Chief, discussed gradual price adjustments in steel sectors, focusing on premium products and monitoring external variables like the Iran conflict.
- POSCO Holdings addressed safety concerns following a fatality at POSCO Yan, collaborating with a global safety provider to assess and improve safety across affiliates.
- Executives noted the importance of government negotiations to mitigate EU quota impacts and the strategy to maintain favorable European market access.
- Management explained the rationale behind equity divestment, balancing CapEx funding and shareholder returns, forecasting profit recovery from new plants in four years.
- POSCO executives outlined plans for lithium business expansion, rare earths technology acquisition, and cautious optimism about lithium price trends amid new mine developments.
- The company is advancing carbon-reduced steel production via EAF, aiming to develop a premium market to offset cost increases and meet environmental regulations.
- POSCO is actively engaging in R&D for sodium ion batteries, aligning product launches with customer development timelines.
Q&A
- POSCO expects gradual price increases in steel sectors in H2 2026, reflecting fuel and raw material cost rises, with focus on premium steel in automotive and shipbuilding, and conservative pricing in home electronics.
- POSCO aims to minimize EU quota reduction impact through government negotiations and entering the market with high margin products; EU accounts for about 10-15% of exports.
- POSCO is monitoring ongoing tariff investigations in Japan and will adjust operations accordingly.
- TCP phase one in Indonesia is currently generating slim profits but is expected to improve over five years; phase two targets automotive steel sheets in Southeast Asia with higher profitability potential.
- Lithium business profitability for brine lithium is projected at about 80% operating margin long term; hard rock lithium profitability depends on market conditions and new mine operations, with decisions expected by end of 2027.
- Lithium price fluctuations, including potential falls due to new Australian mines, are factored into POSCO's plans; spodumene price changes impact Argentina lithium profitability.
- POSCO is sourcing rare earth raw materials from Southeast Asia and the U.S., planning joint ventures and R&D to internalize separation and refining technologies.
- POSCO is reviewing long product steel demand driven by data centers, focusing on structural steel and thick plates to meet new market needs.
- China is reducing low-grade steel production and focusing on high-grade steel, aligning with POSCO's strategy to maintain exports and premium product focus.
- POSCO's Gwangyang EAF operation costs are included in business projections; profitability is expected to improve as utilization and high-grade steel production increase.
- POSCO is developing carbon-reduced steel products for global OEMs and energy companies, with plans to ramp up utilization and profitability starting next year.
- POSCO's lithium hydroxide production costs are standard industry levels; profitability depends on price spreads between spodumene and lithium hydroxide.
- POSCO is conducting R&D on sodium ion batteries and plans to launch CAM and AAM products alongside customers, but remains cautious about market outlook uncertainties.
- Equity divestment proceeds will be split 90% to CapEx and 10% to shareholder returns; dividend reductions due to divestments are expected but offset by future plant profits in about four years.
Greetings, everyone. Thank you for coming to attend the conference call for POSCO Holdings earnings release. Today, we will have a presentation from POSCO Holdings first, and then we will have a Q&A with all of you. For those who wish to ask a question, please press star one. Now I'd like to begin the POSCO Holdings 2026 second quarter earnings release. Greetings, everyone. I'm Head of Finance and IR Division at POSCO Holdings. My name is Seung-Jun Kim. Despite the harsh heat, thank you for attending the second quarter earnings for POSCO Holdings. My sincere thanks go to the investors and the analysts. In the second quarter, the Middle East conflict-triggered energy supply risk intensified while the Korean won continued to lose value. Business faced headwinds. Nevertheless, POSCO Holdings recorded consolidated revenue of KRW 19.3 trillion and KRW 820 billion in OP, keeping the rising profits curve.
Gains were recorded against the previous quarter in all key sectors of steel, rechargeable battery materials, and energy. Most notable is our Argentina lithium business that turned a first-ever quarterly profit. The general RBM sector transitioned to a surplus for the first time in 9 quarters. Our steelmaking affiliate, POSCO, registered its separate OP of KRW 270 billion, a KRW 60 billion gain over the previous quarter. On third quarter outlook, what is most notable is that POSCO will make more visible performance gains. While some raw material costs will climb, increased production will offset fixed costs. Through effort made to increase sales and sales price, we expect the rise to continue. In the rechargeable battery material sector, following its first-ever quarterly surplus in the second quarter, a temporary slowdown may be observed in the third quarter. Located in the southern hemisphere, it is winter in Argentina.
This seasonal factor causes pond evaporation to dwindle. By leveraging this off-season, we plan to replace the LP dryer equipment, hence a temporary drop in production volume seems inevitable. Starting in the fourth quarter, however, the plant will run at full operation. Additionally, in Q4, a long-term supply agreement will kick in, allowing us to deliver certified products. Therefore, we anticipate a more meaningful level up in Q4. Besides the performance gains, the first half of this year demonstrated marked progress in building for future growth. One is Gwangyang's first EAF operation, and the other, the HyREX demo plant construction start. POSCO Holdings is committed to upholding the two pillars of growth, which are profit enhancement by sector and strategic investment for future growth. We'll do our best to continue to grow our corporate value.
Now I will give the floor to our IR office head to offer more second quarter details.
We will move on to page three of the materials, and I will brief you on the business performance of the second quarter 2026. The consolidated revenue of the second quarter was KRW 19.3 trillion, which is a KRW 1.4 trillion increase on-quarter. The operating profit stood at KRW 819 billion, a 16% increase on-quarter. The quarterly EBITDA stood at KRW 1.9 trillion, and CapEx of KRW 2 trillion was administered this quarter, totaling KRW 3.7 trillion of CapEx for the first half. Let me elaborate by business. Steel business profits improved on-quarter by KRW 58 billion. The Middle East conflict impacted logistics and energy costs and foreign exchange rates, driving up short-term cost volatility. However, production and sales volume growth and partial price increase offset the headwinds that lowered profits at the end of last year to drive recovery.
The RBM business has, for the past eight consecutive quarters, operated in the red. However, this quarter, we recorded operating profit of KRW 41 billion, swinging to an operating surplus. Until last year, there was a quarterly deficit of around KRW 50 billion at POSCO Argentina, but this quarter, the subsidiary swung to an operating profit. In infrastructure, the highest quarterly profits was recorded by POSCO International, driving up profit growth of 22% on-quarter. The divestment of QPSS and Chinese subsidiaries are now complete, registering a one-off divestment profit for this quarter's net profit.
I'd like to report on our safety index. Every year and every half year, POSCO Holdings transparently releases updates on our safety metrics and progress made on our policies. In June, we suffered another fatality at POSCO E&C, our construction affiliate. The company takes this very seriously. They are putting all efforts into inspecting and strengthening their safety management system. POSCO SAFETY SOLUTION, in collaboration with dss+, a global safety solution provider, we are assessing the safety of 33 group affiliates across four key areas. By October, we plan to sort safety risks and identify corrective action plans. You can find more detail on our safety initiatives on page four.
Page five, the key business activities in the second quarter. With Australia-based Mineral Resources, we signed the investment agreement on April 30th. The JV is planned to be established by October. For lithium DLE demonstration, we are working with Anson Resources. The demo plant cooperation contract was signed in June, and the plant is scheduled to come online in 2027. POSCO Future M's LFP CAM business is in motion. We have Future M's Pohang NCM CAM lines that are being recalibrated for LFP production, with plans to be commercially ready by next January. Future M, FINO, and CNGR's JV, CNP New Materials, began construction of a new LFP plant to begin commercial production by the end of 2027. Page six. POSCO Holdings has 100% share of POSCO Air Solution, whose high-purity rare gas plant was completed on June 17th in Gwangyang.
To generate profit, it acquires certification processes which will take time. By using materials from the steelworks oxygen plant, it can meet some of the rare gas demand for the chip industry with good prospects for profit. At POSCO International, rare earth business partnership agreement was signed with the U.S.-based ReElement Technologies last May. Total project cost is estimated at $200 million for commercial production by 2028. POSCO's 2.5 million tons EAF was completed by June. In its early operation stage, we plan to mix molten iron from the blast furnace and EAF to produce general purpose steel. At the same time, we will continue testing and development to produce high-grade steel. We aim to boost quality to the level of blast furnace-based products, developing, refining, and rolling technologies to ultimately produce automotive and electrical steel. This will help us respond to CBAM and other European environmental regulations.
Page is on updates about our restructuring projects. In the first half of this year, there were 12 restructuring projects that generated KRW 475.4 billion in additional cash. The largest impact was from divesting steel operations in China that made the bulk of our losses. They include POSCO-CSPC, QPSS, and FCS processing center. Our restructuring effort targets underperforming businesses and non-core projects. By selling these assets, we seek to improve long-term performance and enhance our capital efficiency. By 2028, we expect to generate KRW 3.5 trillion of FCF resulting from these projects. Let's discuss earnings by each division.
Weak exchange rates and adverse export conditions countered with price increase and cost savings, it remained largely unchanged. Please note that the sale of POSCO-CSPC has been completed and is no longer included in the consolidated figures.
Page 10, POSCO Future M. Second quarter POSCO Future M OP margin rate was 3.9%, a 1.6 percentage point quarterly improvement. Owing to the rise in oil price linked chemical product sale prices, the impact served as a tailwind for base materials profits. Energy materials also registered a small profit. Is page 11 on our lithium affiliates. At POSCO Argentina, sales volume rose 160% against the previous quarter, and revenue by 290%. By registering quarterly OP of KRW 11 billion, this quarter became the first ever since the company was incorporated to achieve operating surplus. Multiple clients have signed supply agreements with us, and we are seeking certification procedures and new clients as well. While this upward trend is projected to continue in the second half, as the CFO already mentioned, on a quarterly basis, we may see some shifts.
POSCO Argentina in July is undergoing some interim repairs, such as the replacement of the LP dryer. Once completed, we will bring it back up to full operation in Q4. From Q4, also, the sale of certified products will phase in. Based on market circumstances, uncertified products can be sold at approximately 10% discounted prices. Therefore, once the certified product sales kick in, profits are likely to make additional gains. In the meantime, Plant 2 is in initial operating stage, bracing for its full commissioning scheduled in October. In summary, the third quarter may appear to be a slight slowdown. However, in the fourth quarter, Plant 1 will be able to not only offset Plant 2 initial ramp-up costs. It is also expected to outdo its second quarter performance by another notch. POSCO Pilbara Lithium Solution improved its margins owing to higher price and expanded sale of certified products.
Second quarter revenue hit KRW 102 billion, an increase over the previous quarter. Operating losses were also reduced to around KRW 1 billion. As mentioned in the previous quarter, PPLS margins are highly impacted by the price spread of spodumene and lithium hydroxide. Currently, the price spread is not in our favor, so we face profit pressures in the second half. We will continue to monitor the market and take measures as necessary. POSCO HY Clean Metal maintains plant operations close to 100%, despite challenges in acquiring feedstock. Since December 2025, it has kept up steady monthly profit gains. Again, this is owing to an operational rate of almost 100%, and so it is able to keep up speed even with some headwinds. Page 12, POSCO International. For POSCO International, energy and material segments both grew, recording the highest quarterly and half-year operating profit.
In energy, Myanmar gas fields saw selling price rise along with higher FX. The Senex gas field was expanded. In materials, Indonesian palm production was newly acquired, and this helped improve performance. Page 13, POSCO E&C. POSCO E&C recorded a surplus of KRW 44 billion this quarter. It wrapped up the first half with operating profit of KRW 97 billion. Once again, this shows recovery from the KRW 452 billion temporary deficit it suffered last year. This concludes the 2026 second quarter earnings briefing. We will now move on to the Q&A. We will begin the Q&A. For those who wish to ask a question, please press star one on your phone. If you would like to cancel your question, please press star two. The first question comes from Hyundai Motor Securities. Please ask your question. My name is Park Hyunho.
Thank you for this opportunity to ask a question. I have three questions. The first is regarding second half steel market outlook, as well as the direction POSCO will be taking, especially in automotive, shipbuilding, and home electronics. How will you negotiate price in the second half of this year? Second question is, starting in July, Europe will begin its quota system. What will be the proportion of sales made to Europe against these trends? Of course, there are some temporary tariffs that are being imposed. Although temporary, this is something that will apply to hot-roll products as well. I wonder what your countermeasures are against these tariffs. Third question is, this was also discussed in the Investor Day conference.
For overseas investments, as well as repairs that are going on in the steelworks, I think all of these are going to be happening in parallel. PTKP1 is not in a good situation. Of course, there are different stories being told about the automotive industry. Looking at the profits, how do you intend to generate profit? My name is Roh Sung-rae, Marketing Office Chief. You asked for market outlook for the second half of this year. Due to fuel costs and raw materials costs that went up in the first half, of course, this impacted our prices. This did also impact our own price. We will consider market situations and make sure to apply what needs to be applied to our price.
Because of the Iran conflict, there are volatilities in the raw materials costs as well as external variables due to AD. We will have to continue to closely monitor the client situation as well as the markets, and our adjacent markets as well. Rather than take a rapid rise in price, I think we will be more gradual in our measures. Looking at the automotive industry, we are negotiating based on Formula 1. Despite these oil price hikes and other volatilities, a lot of these were not applied to our price. In the second half, we will gradually phase these variables into the price. In shipbuilding, this is not based on formula index, but because we have a strong demand, we will continue to adjust and reflect these variables to our final price.
In home electronics, the world continues to transition its production base to Southeast Asia, and so the prices remain very conservative. There are costs that need to be applied to our final price. I'm in charge of ITO. I will answer the second question on EU quota reductions. By bracing against these measures, there are some safeguards that were put in place. Of course, we cannot avoid all impact, but through government negotiations, we are trying to minimize the quota reduction for Korea. Compared to our competition, we believe we have a much more favorable position. With a quota reduced, we will be entering that market with more high-margin products and through World Steel Association as well as fair trade agreement clauses, we want to be able to keep the European market favorable to us.
If there is a reduction or a cut in our sales volume, we will make some transitions to be able to make up for these losses. EU proportion for POSCO will vary by each year, but it's about 10%-15% of our total exports. Japan, Southeast Asia, and Europe make up our key exporting markets. In regards to Japan and the tariffs, as you mentioned, in August last year, we began an investigation, and the investigation is still ongoing. In June of this year, for Korean and Taiwan cold-rolled products, they launched a parallel investigation on all products. These are things that are still ongoing. On coated products AD, that was announced on July 24th. Because there was excessive intervention on the part of the investigating authority, we believe that the AD determined as a result of that assessment, is what we are seeing today.
We will be very clearly looking into all of the unfair and irrational reasons applied to these decisions, we will make sure to make adjustments necessary for our operations. Thank you. POSCO Holdings Steel Management Office. I would like to respond to your question about PTKP in Indonesia. PTKP phase 1 is not profitable, or the profits are very small. When it initially went into operation, most of the products were plates and semi-finished products, we were devoid of customers when we began. In the initial stage, yes, our profits were very slim. Let's look at it in five-year interim intervals. We are currently profitable, and we are able to generate cash flow. That is where we are now. About 90% of total invested CapEx has been recovered through EBITDA margin.
The reason we want to invest in phase 2 is because this isn't something that came out of the blue. We've had an expansion plan from the very beginning. We waited until a situation would be more favorable. We have improved conditions now, we've been able to add more detail to our expansion plan. Exactly when we will begin to build or construct, that has not been determined yet. Phase 2 is different from phase 1 because we are targeting the automotive steel sheets market in Southeast Asia. In each Southeast Asian economy, I'm sure they have their own plans to supply their own automotive steel sheets. The hot-rolled products from PTKP is what differs because most of the Southeast Asian nations are producing cold-rolled products. Compared to the competition, ours will be much more profitable.
We will move on to the next question. The next question is from iM Securities, Mr. Kim Yun Sung. Please ask your question. Hello, I am Kim Yun Sung from iM Securities. I have three questions for you. First is related to lithium. You demonstrated good performance this quarter, recently at the investor day, you gave us guidance for the expected profits for lithium in the next few years, I would like to ask what is the profitability for brine and hard rock lithium. If there are any plans to improve profitability, I would like to hear about them. The last question related to lithium is the price outlook. Recently, there are about mines and all these news of various mines coming from Australia which have affected the prices.
With the reutilization of these mines, do you expect the price to fall, or do you not expect it to impact the prices as much? For the second question is related to the rare earths. Also, at the investor day, you provided some guidance, what is your plan regarding rare earths? There you will need technology and the raw materials to dive into this business, I would like to ask what is going on with the preparation. Third part is related to steel. Recently the long products demand has been on the news quite often. It's not one of POSCO's major key products, I would like to ask your plans regarding this.
I am Lee Jayong from Energy Materials Business Management Office. At the investor day, we provided long-term outlook, long-term vision. When we provide these visions, announce these visions, many organizations predict the price to be over KRW 30.
For brine lithium We think we can achieve about 80% operating profit.
The second is plans for expansion for phase 3 and phase 4, we have a performance projection for 2035. PPLS and Argentina Plant 1 will have depreciated by then, that's been applied there. For hard rock lithium, we made an investment in Mineral Resources, that CapEx is applied here. Because some of the mines are coming back into operation, how will that impact our prices? I think that's already been worked into this plan. Of course, you've seen these lithium prices fluctuate wildly in the past, those prices and those impacts have been worked into this formula. This is based on LCE. Based on our estimation, this estimates 100,000 tons per year production. This is a large volume, equivalent to about 5% of total demand.
Because there's a lot of development going on in Australia, looking into the future, lithium price falls have already been worked into our plan. The only thing that we think could change is the price of spodumene, which could drop quite a bit. In Argentina, that is not positive for Argentina, but for the hard rock lithium business, this could be favorable.
I am Kim Minsu from Infrastructure Business Management Office. Regarding rare earths, the raw materials we are reviewing sourcing them from Southeast Asia. From U.S. and Southeast Asia, we are planning for a joint venture. In the U.S., we are also reviewing another business there. In rare earths, there is the mining, the processing in between, and producing permanent magnets. All these links in the value chain require a lot of experience and technology. That is why in order to make sure that the business settles in rapidly or quickly, we are working with experts. In this process, POSCO International will be working with us in raw materials and in other partnerships. We are also working with partners to establish JVs to acquire the technology to expand the business. Especially in technology, the important part is the separation and refining.
Separation and refining technology needs to be internalized. For this, we are currently conducting R&D at the POSCO N.EX.T Hub, the research institute. With these partnerships, both inside and outside, we will be able to acquire the technology necessary.
I am Roh Sung-rae from Marketing Strategy Office at POSCO Holdings. Regarding the third question, yes, there's a lot of demand around data centers, and this is leading to a lot of expectations in society. Regarding the data centers, concrete and metal rods and structural steel used to be the demand in the past, but right now what we are seeing is the data centers being built at scale. Internally, we think that the structural steel related to thick plates may be more competitive. Regarding data centers and ESS, these new demands, we are making various reviews. To gain an upper hand in the market, we are making plans to take the necessary actions. Going forward, not only the exterior steel products that needed to build buildings, POSMH, electrical steel, and interior steel demand is also expected to increase. We will systematically address these demands.
Next question, please. Next question is from Korea Investment & Securities, Choi Moonsun. Please ask your question. Hello, everyone. My name is Choi Moonsun. This is finally a good result in a long time. I would like to ask a question about the steel sector. Chinese securities firms have reported today that the government has put out a supply policy. Why? Because profitable companies in China, a list of them show that steelmakers take up a very small portion. Steelmakers continue to suffer in China, and that is the reason why we believe a new supply agreement may come out of the Chinese government. In association with this piece of news, how do you project the steel market? My name is Roh Sung-rae, POSCO Holdings Marketing Strategy Office.
China has continued to cut production, I think they've also tried to put in some additional measures to deal with additional demand. Rather than cut production, I think they're going to focus on reducing low-grade steel and replacing them with high-grade premium steel. I think this is what the Chinese government is focused on exercising. POSCO is the same, no different. Because of the construction industry slow down, we are, of course, challenged. Because of other industries that exist in Korea, such as the automotive and shipbuilding industries, we are able to focus more on premium steel. Overseas as well, there are some trade barriers, despite these headwinds, we are inventing programs to be able to make up for those losses. We're not trying to cut exports anywhere. We want to sell and export as much as possible. That's our position. Next question, please.
The next question is from Meritz Securities. Please ask your question. I am Jang Jaehyuk from Meritz Securities. Thank you for the opportunity to ask my question. At the CEO Investor Day, POSCO Argentina Phase 3.4, there are also plans to expand hard rock lithium production to 30,000 tons. Are there already permits or decisions made on the expansion? If the decisions haven't been made yet, when do you expect them to be made? For hard rock lithium, the background for the business only mentioned partnership with OEM companies. I'd like to ask for more detail, and when do you expect to receive the approval for the business? Another question is related to shareholder returns.
For shareholder returns, you've decided to fix that at 50%, that includes 10% shareholder returns and other percentages for other programs. Do you have a definitive principle for this, a rule? You've decided to sell off the equities at your affiliates by the end of the year. How will this fare into shareholder returns?
Okay. I'm Lee Hong-hwa from Energy Materials Business Development Office. First, you asked about expanding the lithium business. At the Investor Day, we mentioned that the Argentine brine lithium will be increased to 100,000 tons, there are phase 3 and phase 4 for the Argentine lithium business. Regarding this expansion, up to now, we have been producing lithium hydroxide as our final product. For phase 3 and phase 4, our goal is to produce lithium carbonate. The decision has not yet been made. We will be undergoing the PFS, the pre-feasibility study, to decide what process will be applied by the end of this year, the FID will be done by the end of next year. Expanding our lithium business using the hard rock lithium. To answer that question, as you have heard, because the spodumene prices are high, there is a profitability issue.
We will be considering the market conditions, our clients' positions, as well as our lithium producer partners. Though the decision will be made at the end of next year, we will be responding flexibly. That is our position. The 10% adjustment ratio, I think you're asking why.
Let me try and explain. First of all, as you aptly mentioned at CEO Investor Day, about a certain percentage of the equity shares that we own at affiliates, we will be selling that off, and about 90% will go to CapEx. The other 10% will contribute to shareholder return. We thought that would generate about KRW 3.5 trillion of cash, and that means about KRW 350 billion will be used for shareholder returns. Once we sell those equities off, we are selling off our controlling shares. This can lead to perhaps a decrease in dividend payment as well. Each year, without seeing an increase in operating profits, we simulated what this would mean regarding shareholder returns. What would happen to that reduction in equity that we have in affiliates?
It amounts to about KRW 200 billion. Because we have set aside 35%-40% of net profit of controlling interests, this means about KRW 80 billion reduction in dividend payment each year. Equity divestment, 10% of that will go into paying dividends and shareholder returns, and measuring that against the losses incurred by selling off those equity shares, the simulation shows us that there is a difference that begins to appear, a disparity that begins to appear in about four years. What are we going to do four years down the road? Based on our plant operation experience, it takes about four years for any plant to get to full-scale operation. By our estimation, we will have profits from the plants that we are building now.
In summary, in four years, there will be profits that come from our affiliates as well as profits that come from our lithium business. Which one will be bigger between the two? It boils down to that question. As we mentioned during Investor Day, when lithium is $20,000 per ton, our OP rate is about 40%. As the holding company, we have the authority to shift our portfolio and to realign our businesses. From that perspective, 90% of the equity divestment will go into CapEx and 10% to shareholder returns. That is an informed decision that we made. Liquidating or monetizing our equity stake in our affiliates, what is the rationale behind that? Of course, this has to go through the board. The market is also reacting to this.
At the moment, we are not able to give you a definitive answer, from our perspective, I think the market is aware, and we are aware of the market situation. Once this is approved and it is put into action, we will be very careful. Once we make this decision, we will also follow all rules and regulations, this will also go through public disclosure. Thank you. Next question, please.
The next question is from Kiwoom Securities. Please ask your question. Hello, I am Ijung Hyo from Kiwoom Securities.
Regarding steel business, I have a question. In the third quarter, you mentioned that it will improve compared to the second quarter. Does this include the cost from the EAF utilization? Does this include the projections regarding Gwangyang operation, the costs associated with it? Of course, it helps to reduce carbon emissions, this also entails increased costs. If there is any miss in your business projection, this could be quite fatal. I wonder how the Gwangyang EAF is going to fare into your business projections in the future.
I am the Head of Finance Office. First, in the second half of 2026, the projections, of course, includes Gwangyang operations and the cost incurred from the EAF. The second question is whether the Well, there was a history. There is a record of Gwangyang EAF showing low profit. Well, we are implementing a hot metal mixing technique to produce high-end or high-grade steel. This is our plan. As of now, the utilization rate is low, once this rate goes up and we can produce high-grade steel, we will be able to secure profitability. I am Hong Young-jun from the International Trade Affairs Office at POSCO. Let me add a little. From June, we began operation of the EAF to begin production of carbon-reduced steel. However, the carbon-reduced steel market is still in its initial stages.
We are currently focusing on promoting this product to the potential clients. In particular, there are global OEM companies and energy companies. For them, we are currently doing a test supply for customer verification to expand our sales. The cost increase due to EAF is something that can be addressed with the creation of a premium market. Right now, the market hasn't developed enough, and there isn't a global standard for it. We believe that we will be able to make up for the costs, beginning next year, we will continue to ramp up utilization rate to improve profitability and production volume.
Next question. Next is from DB Securities, Ahn Hesu. Please ask your question. My name is Ahn Hesu from DB Securities.
I'd like to ask a question about lithium. Your process is different from conventional method. I wonder what the margin rate is. Pilbara lithium is very much dependent on the price spread of spodumene and lithium hydroxide. What are the cost and profit implications in the ore lithium business?
POSCO Argentina phase 1 and PPLS phase 1. Let me address Argentina first. Phase 1 is lithium hydroxide. Phase 2 is TGLC. These are all based on index prices. TGLC is industrial, but the price is the same as PGLC. Our cost is about $3 more than TGLC, so it's profitable. Once phase 2 completes, our profitability is going to only get better. In phase 2, we have a new process, yes, but this is a pretty widely used process. In Chile and Argentina, there is a standard profit structure that we are envisioning, projecting, and I don't think it's going to be too hard to achieve that. Whether the process is going to impact profitability I don't think that's the variable we should be looking at. It's actually the demand for ESS that is impacting our profitability.
In ore lithium, as already mentioned, the price of spodumene, how much of the price of spodumene takes up the price of a lithium hydroxide? That is the question. It should be between 4%-5%. Let's say it's 5%. Because the yield is about 85%, about seven times that is the raw materials cost. It ends up being about 35% of the total price being the cost of the raw materials. This is standard in the industry, and it was this way until a certain point in time. This has come up to about 56%. The raw materials cost was as high as 56%. Why is Pilbara having such a hard time this year? It's because it's gone up to about 70%. Even China is not profitable. When China says it is profitable, they are taking away certain parts in that cost structure.
At this price, no company can be profitable. This is the frank truth. Our current profit structure is dependent on whether large-scale massive mines re-begin operation and/or if Australia develops new and more mines. These are some of the predictions that some expert agencies are making. If this pans out, then we will be profitable, and we will be able to increase our production, of course, in consultation with our automotive OEMs and client OEMs.
Next question, please. The next question is from Shinhan Investment Securities. Please ask your question. Hello, I am Song Hyun-jin from Shinhan Investment Securities. In China, people are saying that they will make sodium-ion batteries commercially available by next year, I'm curious if POSCO is also making efforts in that direction.
Mi Seung-won from Energy Materials Business Development Office. Yes, SIB, sodium-ion batteries, have been quite the craze. As you would probably know, the outlook is different for each organization. Some view it very optimistically, some are taking a very conservative projection. Regarding sodium-ion batteries, we are considering the outlook and uncertainties, we are working closely with our partners for research and development. We can't talk about this in detail, but we do have plans to launch CAM and AAM alongside our customers' plans. Regarding the anodes, we have an agenda to continue R&D. Do you have any additional questions? It doesn't appear that we have any more. It's almost 1:00 here and Barclays, and DKAM have given us online questions. I took a brief look, and it looks like we've answered most of them, but some parts remain unanswered.
I wonder if we as the IR office could reach out to you with that answer to that question. I'd like to close the earnings release meeting today.
