Scorpio Tankers Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Key Takeaways
- Scorpio Tankers reported its strongest quarter in history in Q2 2026, generating adjusted EBITDA exceeding $300 million and adjusted net income of $243.7 million.
- The company strengthened its financial position with a cash balance over $1.9 billion and completed a $605 million convertible bond issuance at approximately 1% yield, repaying $589 million of higher-cost debt.
- Daily cash breakevens were reduced to approximately $11,000 per day, one of the lowest in the industry.
- Since the start of 2026, Scorpio Tankers sold 19 vessels, mostly 11 to 12 years old, at prices above original purchase costs, and welcomed the delivery of the STI Moxy, reducing the order book to 13 vessels.
- The company returned over $175 million to shareholders in Q2 through share repurchases and dividends.
- Scorpio Tankers secured three minimum three-year time charter agreements for Omar vessels starting December 2026, reflecting confidence in long-term market fundamentals.
- The product tanker market remains strong with rates above $30,000 per day despite lower seaborne volumes and seasonal slowdowns, supported by geopolitical developments and refinery dislocations.
- The LR2 crude tanker market benefits from Middle East disruptions and rising crude production in the Americas, pushing spot rates above $100,000 per day.
- Fleet growth is expected to be moderate at 3-4% annually over the next three years due to aging vessels and sanctioned tonnage, with ton-mile demand outpacing fleet growth.
- In Q2 2026, Scorpio Tankers generated $300.5 million adjusted EBITDA and $388 million net income (IFRS), declared a $0.45 per share dividend, and repurchased $155 million of common stock.
- The company reduced net debt by $4.2 billion since December 2021, transitioning to lower-cost secured debt and convertible notes with yields below 1%.
- Liquidity totaled $2.4 billion as of July 28, 2026, with $978 million committed to new buildings and joint ventures, payable over four years.
- Cash breakeven rates are below $11,000 per day and expected to decline further due to debt repayments and note redemptions.
- At $20,000 per day, Scorpio Tankers can generate $246 million in annual cash flow, and at $30,000 per day, up to $520 million.
Outlook
- The product tanker market is well positioned due to global inventory restocking and recovery in underlying demand, supporting higher seaborne exports and ton miles.
- Geopolitical risks, including Middle East conflicts and attacks in the Red Sea, create uncertainty but also increase ton-mile demand through rerouting, supporting freight rates.
- Refinery dislocation is structural, with refining capacity shifting farther from consumers, increasing demand for tanker transportation.
- Normalized refined product demand could increase by over 3 million barrels per day through year-end, with global visible inventories down by over 400 million barrels since the start of the conflict.
- The LR2 crude tanker market is expected to continue benefiting from disruptions and rising crude production, with a significant portion of the LR2 fleet trading crude oil.
- Fleet aging and sanctioned tonnage will tighten effective supply, with fleet growth expected to be moderate, reinforcing a tightening market.
- Longer-term, refining capacity constraints and an aging fleet will cause ton-mile demand to outpace fleet growth, further tightening the market.
Guidance
- Scorpio Tankers maintains a cash breakeven rate below $11,000 per day, the lowest in company history, expected to decline further due to recent debt repayments and note redemptions.
- The company can generate up to $246 million in cash flow annually at $20,000 per day rates and up to $520 million at $30,000 per day rates.
- The company plans to continue opportunistic time chartering, focusing on counterparties with long-standing strategic relationships.
- New building and joint venture commitments total just over $978 million, payable over the next four years, with sufficient liquidity to cover these without raising additional capital.
- Convertible notes issued have a conversion price of approximately $100 per share, with a settlement trigger at 130% of conversion price; maximum shares issuable upon conversion are 6 million.
Executive Comments
- CEO Emanuele Lauro emphasized focus on controllable factors: balance sheet strength, cost of capital reduction, fleet optimization, securing attractive time charters, and returning capital to shareholders.
- Lars Dencker Nielsen, Chief Commercial Officer, noted the fungibility between LR2 and Aframax vessels, with about two-thirds of LR2 fleet currently trading crude oil, driven by market opportunities and ton-mile demand.
- James Doyle, Head of Corporate Development and Investor Relations, highlighted the importance of the market floor over peaks, citing sustained strong freight rates despite geopolitical uncertainty and seasonal factors.
- Management views refinery dislocation and geopolitical disruptions as structural factors supporting tanker demand and ton-mile growth.
- Scorpio Tankers is prepared for market cyclicality by maintaining financial flexibility and a strong balance sheet.
- Management sees the aging fleet and sanctioned tonnage as key supply constraints that will tighten the market further.
- The company is optimistic about the product tanker market fundamentals despite geopolitical uncertainties and expects continued demand growth and moderate fleet expansion.
- Management described the VLCC joint venture as a strategic investment with a partner linked to a major Chinese shipbuilder, aiming to gain exposure to the crude tanker sector.
- On convertible debt, management is comfortable with the structure, low cash costs, and potential settlement options, noting limited dilution risk currently.
Q&A
- LR2 vessels are increasingly fungible between clean and dirty trades, with about two-thirds currently trading crude oil due to higher earnings in the dirty market; this cross-trading is opportunistic and expected to continue.
- Recent rate increases in the Atlantic basin are driven by strong refining margins, high refinery utilization, geopolitical disruptions (including in the Red Sea and Bab el Mandeb), and increased crude exports from the US and South America.
- Longer voyage distances and supply chain shifts due to geopolitical disruptions have increased ton-mile demand, with some normalization occurring but extended turmoil underpinning market strength.
- Time charter market demand remains high, especially from oil companies and traders, with some time charters being extended at unprecedented levels; Scorpio Tankers takes a balanced, opportunistic approach to time charters.
- The refinery dislocation and geopolitical disruptions seen over the past 6-12 months have structurally changed the LR2 market, increasing voyage distances and tightening supply due to aging and sanctioned vessels.
- Convertible notes have a conversion trigger at 130% of the conversion price; maximum shares issuable are 6 million, and management is comfortable with the capital structure and low cash costs.
- Older MR vessels generally have a hard stop at 20 years for time charters; while some extension of vessel life has occurred, it remains uncommon for vessels over 20 years to be chartered.
- The VLCC joint venture is a strategic move with a partner linked to a major private Chinese shipbuilder; financial exposure is limited relative to Scorpio Tankers' balance sheet, with vessels ordered at Hanwa shipyard.
- Global refinery dislocation is expected to continue due to long lead times for new refineries and lack of capacity additions in emerging markets, supporting ongoing ton-mile growth.
- Management does not expect significant dilution from convertible notes in the near term and will evaluate settlement options if share price exceeds trigger levels.
Hello and welcome to the Scorpio Tankers Second Quarter 2026 conference call. I would now like to turn the call over to James Doyle, Head of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to the Scorpio Tankers Second quarter 2026 Earnings Conference call. On the call with me today are Emanuele Lauro Chief Executive Officer. Robert Bugbee, president. Cameron Mackey, Chief Operating officer. Chris Avella, chief financial officer. Lars Dencker Nielsen. Chief commercial officer. Earlier today, we issued our second quarter earnings press release, which is available on our website, Scorpio Tankers dot com. The information discussed on this call is based on information as of today, July 30th, 2026, and may contain forward looking statements that involve risks and uncertainty. Actual results may differ from those set forth in such statements. For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, you should review the forward looking statement disclosure in the earnings press release. As well as Scorpio Tankers SEC filings, which are available at Scorpio Tankers dot com and sec.gov. Call participants are advised that the audio of this conference call is being broadcasted live on the internet, and is also being recorded for playback purposes. An archive of the webcast will be made available on the Investor Relations page of our website. For approximately 14 days. We will be giving a short presentation today. The presentation is available at Scorpio Tankers dot com.
On the Investor Relations page under Reports and Presentations. The slides will also be available on the webcast. After the presentation, we will go to Q&A. For those asking questions, please limit the number of questions to two. If you have an additional question, please rejoin the queue. Now I'd like to introduce our Chief Executive Officer. Emanuele Lauro.
Thank you, James, and good morning or good afternoon to all. So last quarter I spoke about our focus on the things that we can control. Like. Our balance sheet, lowering our cost of capital, reducing our cash Breakevens, optimizing our fleet, securing attractive time charter contracts and return returning capital to shareholders That approach has not changed. And during the second quarter, we continue to execute against each of these priorities. Financially, the results speak for themselves. The second quarter was the strongest in Scorpio Tankers history, generating adjusted EBITDA in excess of $300 million and adjusted net income of $243.7 million. We continue to strengthen our financial position. Today, our cash position stands at more than $1.9 billion. During the quarter, we completed one of the most attractive financing transactions in the company's history. We've issued $605 million of convertible bonds at a yield to maturity of approximately 1%. We also repaid at the same time, $589 million of debt, which was carrying an interest rate between 5 and 7.5%. So replacing our highest cost of capital., debt with our lowest cost capital to capital. Further improved our balance sheet and reduced our cost of funding. While preserving significant financial flexibility. As a result, our daily cash breakevens remains approximately $11,000 per day, which is one of the lowest in the industry.
We also continued during the second quarter to optimize our fleet. Since the beginning of the year, we have sold 19 vessels. Most of them 11 or 12 years old. At prices above what we originally paid for them. More than a decade ago. As a. Point of reference, the last four sales, which were all allowed to. Were completed at prices above the cost of the LR. Two new buildings we currently have on order to. Morrow we will welcome the STI Moxy, our first new building. Was delivering into the fleet. Tomorrow. As I said, and this brings our order book down to 13 vessels. This reflects our philosophy on fleet renewal. Realizing attractive values from all. The assets. While reinvesting in more fuel efficient vessels that will strengthen the fleet for many years to come. Returning. Capital to shareholders. Also remains a priority. During the quarter, we purchased approximately 2 million shares for $155 million, and today our board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share. The actions combined represent more than $175 million. Returned to shareholders during the second quarter. On the. Side, we entered into chapter agreements for three Omar vessels for a minimum period of three years. These vessels are expected to enter the TCE contracts in December of this year, allowing us to benefit up.
On the current strong spot environment that we are experiencing, customers do not commit to multi-year charters without confidence in markets, and we view this agreements as another encouraging indication of the long term fundamentals of our business. While freight rates have moderated from the exceptional levels we've experienced early in the year, they remain at levels that continue to generate meaningful free cash flow. For us. Same time, geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East. Continue to create uncertainty We do not pretend to know. How or when events will evolve. Shipping has always been and will remain a cyclical business Markets wise and fall and geopolitical events introduce uncertainty that no one can predict with precision Our job is not to predict the cycle. Our job is to be prepared for it. And this is what we're doing. That is why we continue to strengthen our balance sheet, lower our cost of capital, reduce our cash Burke evens, analyze our fleet. Renew our asset base and maintain sustainable liquidity. We believe these decisions position Scorpio Tankers to generate meaningful cash flow when markets are strong, while giving us the resilience and financial flexibility to capitalize opportunities when conditions inevitably change, the.
With us for many years, and it will continue to guide us in the years ahead. Eye opening. Remarks are over and I would like to turn the call back to James. Please. Thank you.
Thanks, Emanuele five seven. Please. In the second quarter, rates reached record highs Records, by definition, aren't meant to last We've seen geopolitical events, drive rates to high levels before What's more important is not the peak. It's the floor. Today, product tanker rates remain above $30,000 per day, despite lower seaborne volumes. And what is typically the seasonally slower part of the year at these levels, the company generates significant free cash flow as Emanuele said, we don't pretend to know how or when the conflict in the Middle East will be resolved, but what we do know is that global inventories, commercial, strategic and floating have been drawn down meaningfully. We also know the refinery dislocation is structural. Refining capacity has shifted farther from the consumer, and that is something that reverses quickly. Looking ahead, we believe the product tanker market is well positioned. A global inventory restocking combined with a recovery and underlying demand, should support higher seaborne exports. Ton miles and rates. Slide eight please. After the MOU was signed in mid June, tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz rose to 12.6 million barrels per day, and closer to 17 million, including Saudi Arabia's Yanbu exports. But the region is fragile.
Last week, the Houthis attacked two commercial vessels in the Red sea. We've seen this before. In 2024, rising risk in the Bab el Mandeb pushed owners to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. In some cases, more than doubling sailing distances That pattern repeats. It would mean incremental ton mile demand from rerouting alone. Adding further support to freight rates. Slide nine. Please. Ten mile demand has been the defining factor behind today's freight market. In June, seaborne refined product exports declined by 2.3 million barrels per day, or 11% year over year. However, longer voyage distances have largely offset that decline. Tightening effective supply and supporting a strong freight market. Despite lower volumes, refinery dislocation has been a key component in driving ten mile demand. When we expect to continue by 10th place. Refining. Margins have reached record levels. Geopolitical disruptions have exacerbated a dislocated refinery system since 2019. Refined product demand has grown almost 4.5 million barrels per day, compared to 1.8 million barrels per day of net capacity additions. Compounding that, much of the new capacity that has come online since in the Middle East and China, farther from the end, consumer. Five. Please. As far, normalized demand for refined products could increase by more than 3 million barrels per day through year end Global visible inventories are down over 400 million barrels since the start of the conflict.
So much of that demand will need to be met by increasing refinery runs rather than inventory draws, and given the refinery dislocation that production increasingly has to be shipped, creating a constructive backdrop for product tankers. Slide 12. Please. The LR two crude tanker market is benefiting from two forces at once. Disruption in the Middle East and rising crude production from the United States, Canada and Latin America. Together, they have pushed seaborne volumes up by nearly 1 million barrels per day and spot rates above $100,000 per day. Given the spread, we've moved a few of our LR two into the crude market to capture the higher earnings. Slide 13. This is this is particularly important when looking at the order book. While the order book is 20% of the fleet, more than half the order book is LR two. Today. 66% of the LR two fleet is trading crude oil, and we expect this to continue. As a result, the effective product Tanker order book is smaller than it appears, reinforcing the view that fleet growth will be more moderate than expected. Slide 14. Please. As you can see on the left, 21% of the product tanker fleet is already over 20 years old.
By 2028, it will be 31%. On the right, roughly 25% of the LR two fleet and 9% of the. Mr. Fleet are sanctioned, with average ages of 19 to 21 years old and a normal market. Much of this older tonnage would have already exited the fleet. The combination of an aging fleet and a meaningful share of sanctioned tonnage points to further tightening of effective supply. Slide 15 please. When you adjust for aging vessels, sanctioned capacity in LR two crossover, effective supply growth is lower than the headline order book implies. We expect fleet growth to average roughly 3 to 4% over the next three years, and potentially lower as refinery utilization and seaborne flows increase to support demand in global restocking. The market should tighten further. Near term, that means higher refinery runs and seaborne exports. Longer term refining capacity stays constrained, while the fleet ages. We expect ton mile demand to outpace fleet growth. And with that, I'd like to turn it over to Chris.
James. Good morning. Good afternoon everyone. Slide 17. Please. This quarter, we generated $300.5 million in adjusted EBITDA and $388 million in net income on an IFRS basis This includes $154 million gain on the sale of ten vessels during the quarter. We declared a $0.45 per share dividend and repurchased $155 million of our common stock. Thus returning an aggregate of over $175 million to shareholders. The chart on the right shows the evolution of our net debt position since December of 2021. Our capital. Allocation policy over this period has been headlined by debt reduction As you can see, this approach has resulted in the reduction of our net debt position by $4.2 billion from a net debt position of $2.9 billion at the end of 2021, to a net cash position of $1.3 billion. As of today. To put this balance sheet transformation into context, our net cash position is worth approximately $26 per share as of today. This balance. Sheet strength provides the company with considerable optionality, particularly in the market environment defined by elevated volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. Please. The. Chart on the left shows our outstanding debt by type since December of 2021. Over the course of four years, we transformed our balance sheet by transitioning out of expensive lease financing into more flexible, lower cost secured debt.
However, our. Our efforts didn't end there, as during the second quarter of this year and into July, we executed on a series of transactions that further transformed and strengthened our balance sheet. In April, we closed on an offering of $375 million in aggregate principal amount of five. Year senior unsecured convertible notes bearing a 1.75% coupon rate and a conversion price of approximately $100 per share. Upon conversion, we have the option to settle the convertible notes in cash. Shares of our common stock, or a combination thereof. In. May We executed a follow on offering of the same convertible notes. At a price of over 110 to par for gross proceeds of over $253 million. When taking this premium into account, the yield to maturity on the combined issuances is below 1%. We also closed on the sales of 15 vessels, all at cyclically high prices. We earned. The highest average daily TCE rate in the company's history. We announced two new secured credit facilities with seven year tenors and bearing margins of 120 basis points We repaid $389 million of legacy secured debt, all of which was due to mature in 2028. We redeemed. Our $200 million, 7.5% coupon rate, senior unsecured notes.
So as of today, we have $655 million of debt, $605 million of which is consists of convertible debt. The. Chart on the right shows the trend in the weighted average margins on our secured debt. As I. Opened in the second quarter of this year, we continued to focus on lowering our cost of debt by repaying over $389 million of debt across five credit facilities, all of which were scheduled to mature in 2028 and carried margins of between 170 and 100 and 97.5 basis points. And our efforts to lower our cost of capital didn't end there. As can be seen with our recently executed $50 million credit facility with Bank of America and recently announced $90 million credit facility commitment from Standard Chartered and Dekabank. Each of these credit facilities carry margins of just 120 basis points, and have seven year tenors. Slide 19. Please. The chart on the left shows our liquidity profile We had $2.2 billion in cash as of July 28th, and an additional $483 million in availability under revolving credit facilities, for a total of $2.4 billion in available liquidity. We have entered into agreements or letters of intent to purchase 14 new building vessels and to contribute equity for the minority interest in a joint venture of eight vlccs.
The chart on the right is a waterfall reflecting the commitments under these agreements or letters of intent. Our. New building and joint venture commitments totaled just over $978 million as of today. Excluding any potential financing. Our discipline, our disciplined allocation of capital. Over the past three years has afforded us the financial flexibility to enter into these agreements, as shown. In the payment waterfall on the top right. These payment obligations are spread out over the next four years. But hypothetically speaking, we could pay for all of these vessels today in cash without having to raise any additional capital. Slide 20. Please. Our. Cash break even rate, which includes vessel operating costs, cash and a cash interest payments and commitment fees and any. Scheduled loan amortization is below $11,000 per day and is at the lowest level in the company's history. This rate. To decline given the cash interest savings resulting from our Q2 repayment of $389 million in secured debt, along with the July redemption of our senior unsecured notes of $200 million. To illustrate our cash generation potential at these cash breakeven levels at $20,000 per day, the company can generate up to $246 million in cash flow per year.
And at $30,000 per day, the company can generate up to $520 million in cash flow per year. This concludes our presentation for today. On behalf of the management team, we'd like to thank you for your time and attention. And now we'd like to turn the call over to Q&A.
Thank you. We will now be open Q&A session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star. Then the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star one again Thank you. Your first question comes from Omar Nokta with Clarkson Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Hey, guys. Good morning. Good afternoon. Thanks for the presentation. I just wanted to ask maybe a couple of perhaps maybe market weighted questions, but also pertaining to Scorpio and what. To ask on the LR two. Specifically and how that's been developing recently. You know, in the past it seemed that there was somewhat of a separation. You would say, for product players that were looking at their LR twos, keeping them clean, and then maybe crude players who owned LR two traded them dirty Has that changed? Our clean owners like yourselves starting to trade the LR two more actively in the dirty market. James you mentioned in your presentation that you've switched a few ships into the crew trade and also how two thirds of the fleet today is also running dirty, but I guess just kind of big picture as we think about how LR twos are trading today, are they becoming a bit more fungible? If that's the right term in terms of moving in and out of the crude trade. And I guess I'm asking that because when I look at your performance for the third quarter so far, that's 65,000 on the LR twos.
It seems that that's perhaps tracking closer to the dirty aframax average versus, say, the LR two and. Any color you can give on that would be helpful. Thank you.
Hi. Omar. Lars. Here., to be honest, we have always been kind of dipping into the, to the, to the dirty market as well. On the aframaxes. And we look at it and have always looked at it from an opportunistic vessel by vessel perspective, there's not kind of a broad fleet strategy in terms of that, but you mentioned fungible. I mean, it has been the case for a couple of years now that the fungibility between LR two and Aframax has been very apparent. And we have seen ,, a lot of, of cross trading,. For the last couple of years., and when we have seen the markets spike on, on the clean, we have been holding the ships in the clean. And when we have seen, as we have seen over the,, the last period, a very strong Atlantic basin on the upper maxes,, we decided to, to tap into that,, and clearly it's not only us that has been doing this., you know, we count today about 170, maybe just over 170 clean LR two. Only trading in that market ., and you know, you've got over 100 and 250, I think it is ,, Aframaxes trading dirty., a lot of them, obviously in the Atlantic Basin.
The thing that's really interesting, in my view, is that even with that amount of ships coming into that market,, because of the ton mile that James was talking to about before. And, and of course, the volumes in general, that market has been, has been strong throughout.. You know, it, there's no doubt in my mind, as you've had that kind of low number of, of LR two,, kind of going into the aframax market. That it wouldn't take very much before you start seeing the LR twos, as we have been seeing over the last week. Now, how rates in the West,, moving up ., suddenly you see a kind of a normalization and it will, it will be the case that you will start seeing ships moving back into clean as well. So I think, and I've mentioned this before on these calls that, you know, you need to today look at our twos and aframaxes as a much closer, up. Unison unit.
Yeah. Thanks. Lars. That's,, that's quite helpful., commentary. And then maybe just as a follow up,, you just referenced what we've seen in the Atlantic,, here over the past couple of weeks. Can you maybe just give a perspective on what's driving that? We've seen it. It seems like across the board, whether it's LR twos, LR ones. Misses, everything seems to be moving quite a bit higher here ., over the past couple of weeks relative to what we've been seeing. And it looks like rates perhaps are approaching kind of maybe not the highs yet, but it seems that they're at their highest levels in at least a few months., what's, what's been behind this latest move?
Yeah. Well, I mean, first of all, I've been doing this for a long time. You know, I've never seen a July or August market like this, right? I mean, it this is not what you would consider to be a normal kind of summer lull., I mean, first of all, you know, you've got great refining margins talking about the Mrs.,, the US Gulf has been, you know, running at extremely high utilization rates. And then you obviously have all the different geopolitical kind of backdrop, which obviously influences the things, you know, Russia being one, you know, they, they don't have the, the exports that they had. You have the issues with the Bab el Mandeb. You have the issues with Hormuz. You have the issues with stocks in general being low. So, you know, it's quite clear that, you know, the volatility that we have seen talking about the misses., has been. Profound. I mean, you know. Two Q. We know about, then we had a kind of a bit of a drop. You're seeing now another resurgence, as you can see on the rate reports today, where, you know, TC 14 is now moving up, you know, from from their lows and have now, you know, new moved north of 320 maybe will go beyond that.
So the triangulation element on on the Atlantic basin has been strong., the same to be honest goes also with the with the aframaxes and the activity both in the in the Mediterranean has been strong. You know, we have the issues around CPC talking about geopolitical issues., the dislocations tends to be in any case, always somewhat positive for, for, for tankers in general. But the story is valid., and we see it every day., the, the spreads and the ARBs are opening stuff for business., and of course, the, the advent of, of more oil coming out of South America and the United States has certainly been,, underpinning the,, the dirty market as well.
Great. Yeah. Thanks. Lars. That's very helpful insight. I'll pass it back.
Your next question comes from Chris Robertson with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning everybody. Thank you for taking my questions here., yeah. Fantastic job of what you guys are doing on the balance sheet and all the issues that you you've raised on what you can control., so kudos to you there. Just wanted to ask, you know, maybe on the market when,, when the situation in the Mideast kicked off and there was some very unusual, very long distance trading patterns.. At least initially during that height of the disruption. Can you comment as to have some of those routes been more enduring? And can you give some examples of, of kind of how, how things are trading now?, on some. Of those longer unusual routes..
Yeah. I mean, if we go back,, when, when it all kicked off during the second quarter, we saw some really, really,, uncommon. Voyages, which,, obviously a lot of it is down to the stress factors that were in place and short term fixes and so on. I think there was a calibration that took place after that., which meant that the long term routing still very much is in ,, in. In vogue ., it has also helped that we have seen a little bit of an uptick on the Chinese exports so that suddenly there's a more of a balance on these things.. But, you know. It's quite clear that, you know, when you kind of overlay that with the, the issues with the Russian,, exports having dwindled and, you know, South America and other Africa as well have been suffering from that. You've been seeing other supply chains being created, which have increased,, the ton miles as well. And then they're then sharing in the kind of the same supply pot, if you will., so, you know, we have seen over the last couple of weeks., another kind of uptick in Asia, which has been interesting. You know, the, the Transpac moves has, has increased substantially.
I mean, we haven't really seen China moving up to something that is kind of ,, over. What we had anticipated, but there has been a general kind of understanding of where oil is coming from until I guess the next shock comes in and we will see something different. But it tends to be that there is somewhat of a normalization. Everything underpins still by kind of extended turmoil.
Thank you., just a follow up question. Maybe. Is it related to to Omar's line of questions around the LR two trading dirty ?, just wanted to better understand that the dynamic here, just because such a great percentage of the LR two fleet is trading dirty at the moment, is that mostly in your in your opinion, is that mostly due to the geopolitical disruptions in the. The ten mile dynamics there. And could the could the downside be the unwinding of geopolitical risk or., what would keep that as a more enduring force going forward versus,, more transient?
I think the short answer, to be honest, Chris, is that it's all a question of time charter equivalent., you know, you had,, the TD 25 or the, or the LED market, you know, ramping up towards $150,000. A couple of weeks ago, you had a quietening.. LR two market with all the uncertainties going around with the, with the Hormuz and so on, which of course, is the primary trade for clean ,, and people were saying, well, the spreads are simply too great., for, for us not to dip into that., what we know from the last couple of years is that. If that spread flips.., vessels will very quickly move into, into clean again ,, you know, a case in point was, if you recall, a couple of years ago, you had the LR two market out of AG trading at, I think it was around $8 million. And the, the stroke Vlcc in particular, market was, was languishing at that point., and you saw suddenly what we had not seen before,, a large number of vessels, kind of cannibalizing into the clean market, which was kind of new,, to the industry. That kind of flip flopping in particular on the max is decoded.
Aframaxes has been taking place over the last couple of years to a larger extent ., there certainly. Is a lot more runs under the belt for people to understand how you should do this as efficiently as you can and cost efficiently as you can,, one company being us as well and being able to do that. So, you know, we don't fear or have any issues with that kind of. And don't consider that to be transient, but to be a lot more market related in terms of one way or the other.
Appreciate it. Lars. Thank you guys. I'll turn it over.
Your next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hey, great., good morning and good afternoon. Emmanuel James. Great rundown. Thank you for that., you emphasized, I think, James in your presentation, the floor is more important than the peak with with rates remaining above 3000 in this backdrop. It may be a little bit of your thoughts on the the floor in this backdrop,, just given I think Lars, you were just mentioning, you've never seen a July like this. So maybe thoughts on the floor, thoughts on seasonality and where we go from here.
Lars you want me to take that?
Well, you can start. James. I'll follow on. I thought the question was for you. Yeah. Thanks., thanks, Ken. Yeah. Look, so I mean, typically you get through peak gasoline season, end of the summer and you go into maintenance. And what we've seen is because of the longer voyage distances, the rerouting,, we're seeing unique voyages as Lars highlighted. And we think that's going to continue,, as disruptions and potentially rerouting as a result of Red sea. Specifically as vessels go around the Cape of Good Hope and also disruptions with,, refining capacity in Russia. So Russia's ex export ban on gasoline and diesel, that's going to increase Atlantic basin. Mr.. Volumes for compliant ships. Africa, Latin America. And at the same time, we expect more naphtha to go from the US Gulf to Asia., so I think there's a constructive dynamic there. And then was highlighted the strength on the LR two in Aframax trading, crude oil. We think that's going to pick up as you get into maintenance here. Because there'll be more crude volume from the Atlantic basin that needs to go to Asia.
All right. Lars did you want to jump in or do you want me to follow up? I guess I'll throw on the follow up. Anybody can jump in, but you mentioned inventories were down about 400 million barrels since the start of the conflict, with much current demand needs to be met by refinery runs versus inventory draws. Maybe your thoughts on on the time frame?. I guess in terms of, you know, if. We're going into maintenance season, the draw down or the, the ability for refineries to continue to meet that demand versus then, time frame for, for beginning to restock.
Yeah.
So there was a lot of crude that was, was shipped ,, you know, in June and it takes about 30 days for that to get to Asia, 45 days to get to Europe. And that's arriving now. And so I think runs are going to pick up in those regions and you'll get increased regional trading, which is going to be fantastic for the medium range ships. And if you looked at refinery runs year over year, I think July was was down about 5 million barrels per day. But out of the Middle East, refining capacity,, the only refinery that's actually down right now is. Jason. So. As things normalize, we expect runs to pick back up here. So while you might have, you know, kind of the US Gulf maintenance coming in, say September, we expect runs throughout the rest of the world to pick up at the same time., so that's going to create a constructive. Dynamic for us. And also the fleets, you know, really out of its normal positioning. So I think that's going to be constructive as well.
Thanks, James. Thanks, guys.
Thanks.
Your next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Great. Good morning and good afternoon. Good afternoon everyone ., I think maybe just continuing of. Basically continuing the thread of the last conversation here., you know, do you think that the events that's really, we've seen over the last, certainly the last six months, but maybe even the last 12 months have structurally changed really that LR two market from anything we've historically seen. And how are you weighing weighing maybe the supply and demand landscape over the next 12 months? Thanks.
I start James,. What's happened over the last six months? You know. It's just a good question. What's going to happen tomorrow? We don't know. I mean, we want to look at is just a pure fundamentals in terms of what are we looking at. You know, one thing I think is for sure is that, you know, the longer voyage distances that are in place, you know, they certainly tighten supply. This has been a key thesis over the last number of years for the reasons that James mentioned in his prepared remarks, that has not changed., it has also not changed that the the issues are the sanctioned fleet and the age of the same as certainly getting to a place where, you know, in a normal market environment, those ships will not exist., and, you know, I'm of, of the opinion that, you know, those sanctions vessels will never enter into the primary trade again. So. We know that the crude,, has, has kind of developed in further afield areas. We know where the refineries are. That's also further afield. That certainly has not changed. What certainly is, is, has changed is that there's a lot more dislocations and disruptions that take place and have been taking place over the last, you know, more than six months, a couple of years.
I would even say that, you know, in terms of any dislocation that we have seen has always created a potential for for product tankers. And now also for, for the crude market., and. It's clear that if you then look over the medium term and say, well, you know, we're, we're in a position right now where considering the issues that we've had,, facing the global economy and the, the stock trolls that have been taking place and the flat price that also kind of follow, you'd say, well, at some point in time., you know, you're going to have to think about how you're going to get into, into a mine ops situation., so I think underlying,, that's all great. And, you know, I just kind of reiterate James's point about, you know, what are we looking at here in terms of,, age profile of ships as we move over the next couple of years? What is the, the fleet profile coming on order over the next couple of years? And you put all of those things in there. And in a normal circumstance, you know, it doesn't look ,, scary, to me. And,. But, you know, we are living in a very highly uncertain political environment, you know, you've got things coming in left, right field every single day, more or less.
And one of the key elements that we try to do at any given time from an operational commercial perspective, is be as nimble as we can to react to to these changes as they come on, on a very frequent basis.
Understood. Thank you., just for my follow up here, I think following the refinancing activity, your debt profile is now heavily weighted towards the converts. So how should we think about just potential dilution conversion scenarios that maybe your preferred method of settlement ,, especially should the stock trade meaningfully, meaningfully above the conversion price. Thanks.
Hi. Stephanie. Thanks for the question.. Look. We just we're fresh off the convertible. So we're obviously happy with the, with the transaction and the execution of it. One of the biggest features of. The notes is that we can settle it. And cash or shares.. The trigger for that is 130% over the conversion price. So I think everybody here on the call would be thrilled if we get to those levels and ,, we, you know, we'll address that if it. Happens. And in terms of how, how we'll choose to settle it,, right now, the maximum number of shares that can be issued is 6 million shares. That's, that's what the conversion rate is. So ,, you know, that's, that's something for down the road., but right. Right now we're, you know, we're just, we're happy with how it fits into our capital structure., and particular the low cash costs which have driven down our, our, our cash breakevens,, on the notes.
Understood. Thank you guys.
Your next question comes from Sharif. Ahmad with BTIG. Please go ahead., just one from me today., during the quarter, one of your LR two had its time charter extended ., and just looking at the rest of the fleet, there's a handful of other tankers rolling off time charter in the next year or so. So I'm wondering if you see you're seeing a higher likelihood that these time charters get extended. If there's even options to do so. And maybe your thoughts on what you're seeing in the time charter market more broadly, thanks..
On that particular time charter, it was, was an option. Historically that was in place., any time charters that we would do today would be new time charters., in the market,, you know, in terms of time charter strategy, you know. We've always been very optimistic about it to have a balanced view on how much of our fleet would be on time charter. We have a number of ships rolling off. We have been looking and has also been reported that a few times. Others have been secured., at. Levels that we have not seen before., it's also an interesting point. I guess,, is that, you know, time charter inquiry. Generally speaking, even over the summer months ,, has. Been high., which is interesting., the, the people that are looking at time charters tend to be the, the oil companies. And now some of the traders are coming in as well. And so there is a generally good level of demand on that. But, when it comes to ourselves,, very much a balanced approach as we've had ,, for, for. For a while., but. Certainly,, dominated by a view that we would look at this. Opportunistically,, and very much so that the people that,, the counterparties that we deal with are people that we have long standing and strategic relationships with that we can build around it.
Great color, as always. Lars. Thank you.
Liam Burke. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you., prior. To the dust up in early. In,, in 2026, prior to the dust up in the Mideast ,, the outlook for the product tankers was great. You had an aging fleet, you had redistribution of global capacity, presuming. That things get to normal someday., are we looking at,, redistribution to continue or are some of the traditional, refiners not in the Mideast, not in,, not in China?, would they continue to refine oil or do you expect the process to continue?
As far as I can take that. Hey, Liam. Thanks for the question., no, we we we absolutely expect, you know, the refinery dislocation to continue. It takes, you know,, at a minimum seven years probably to build a new refinery. And many of those refineries haven't been started, haven't started construction today. If you think about demand in emerging markets where we see a lot of growth,, there's not refining capacity being built there. And in developed markets, you know, northern United States, West Coast, United States, we pose capacity. So we see a scenario where ton miles are going to continue to grow over time. And,, and if anything, what we've seen as a result of this conflict, if you look at crude price changes versus product price changes in cracks, cracks have moved meaningfully. So I think that reflects how dislocated the refining capacity system is. And we'll be happy to transport those cargoes to consuming regions.
Okay. And I guess on the supply side,. We've got an aging fleet,, especially on the. Mr. side have extended rates going to at the far end, extend the life of some of these older. Mrs.. Or would you anticipate that traditional rule of once it hits a certain age,, refiners don't want. To use the,, use the vessel.
And I think, yeah, I think it's fair to say that,, the, there's a hard stop at 20., these days for, for vessels. We've, we've been seeing that even in strong markets., it's not that long ago where, people were looking at 15, and people were saying, well, I don't want a time charter ship. That's more than ten,, that kind. Of has moved,, towards,, a higher level of,, in terms of age,, but even during the very strong markets from a primary trade perspective is very, very uncommon that we've been seeing ships over 20 being traded ,, directly being obviously the exception, but. It's clear. That if you look at overall from, from a fleet segment perspective, and you look at the, the age profile on Mrs.. As you rightly point out, but also on the aftermath, as it is an interesting,, kind of picture that's being drawn over the next couple of years in terms of what that age profile is going to look like.
Great. Thank you. Lars. Thank you. James.
Thanks, Sam.
Your last question comes from Christopher. Skeie with Arctic Securities. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Thanks for a good presentation. As always. I was just wondering if you can comment on the the VLC joint venture and the rationale behind the investment., who are the. Other partners?, where are the vessels ordered and for what price? Typical. And what type of leverage levels you are aiming for. So in other words, what's the equity commitment here?
Thanks for the. Question. I think from. Financial standpoint, the,, exposure. As you can see, is not. Awful compared to ,, our balance sheet. So,, the. Reason why we did this investment is more strategic., the partner is.. The ubo of the largest private shipbuilding shipbuilder in China. And,, we have. A relationship with this gentleman for many years. And,, this opportunity came about where he was looking for a,. A partner in the shipping side. And not only,, potentially, potentially,, in order to operate the vessels once they get delivered. And we thought that it made sense for, for us. To ,. Get the opportunity, even though ,. You see, financially,, it's not a meaningful transaction from our, for our balance sheet. So that's the.
Interest,.
The reason,.. And on the expectations, on the rates the ships are delivering far away. We are going to take delivery of the ships before that ., and so far, I think that is too early to talk about,, market expectations. And our guess is as good as anyone's,, so we like the sector. We believe in the sector. We've been looking at,, getting exposure gradually. You may remember we did the. Investments. Once we divested from DHT, in the last latter part of 2025, we decided to get into the physical ,, part of the. Investment by ordering the ships at Hanwa and,, and this is a nice,, top up,, with a strategic twist for us.
Thanks a lot for a good answer. Looks quite interesting.
Sure.
That concludes our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call over back to Emmanuel Lauro CEO for the closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Operator. I don't have any closing remarks. Just wanted to thank everybody for their time. And,, continued support and look forward To Speaking with the with you. Going forward. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
Call ended
