JetBlue Airways Corp Q2 2026 Earnings Call

Good morning, everyone. My name is Alexandra. I would like to welcome everyone to the JetBlue Airways second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. I would now like to turn the call over to JetBlue's Director of Investor Relations, Koosh Patel. Please go ahead, sir. Thanks, Alexandra.

Good morning, everyone, thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2026 earnings call. This morning, we issued our earnings release and a presentation that we will reference during this call. All of those documents are available on our website at investor.jetblue.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. In New York to discuss our results are Joanna Geraghty, our Chief Executive Officer, Martin St. George, our President, and Ursula Hurley, our Chief Financial Officer. During today's call, we will make forward-looking statements about our outlook, strategy, and future performance. These statements are based on our current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for information about risk factors that could cause those differences.

These statements speak only as of today, we undertake no obligation to update them. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings materials and available on our investor relations website. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joanna Geraghty, JetBlue's CEO.

Thank you, Koosh. Good morning, thank you for joining JetBlue's second quarter 2026 earnings call. Before we begin, I want to recognize our crew members for their outstanding work throughout a particularly challenging July. Despite extremely difficult, unpredictable convective weather, coupled with ongoing ATC staffing constraints, our team has shown incredible dedication to our customers and each other. I'm especially appreciative of the many customers who have taken the time to recognize our crew members' professionalism, compassion, and dedication during these very challenging operations. Their performance reflects the very best of JetBlue. It has been two years since we announced JetForward, during the second quarter, we once again demonstrated our ability to execute and deliver results, even as we continue to strengthen our foundation for the long term.

Through JetForward, we are building a more reliable operation, a more compelling customer offering, and a more focused network while reinforcing our path to sustained profitability. Our ongoing work across each JetForward priority move enabled our crew members to execute during another quarter marked by a complex operating environment, including elevated fuel prices, significant thunderstorm activity, and periods of airspace constraints. Delivering a reliable operation remains foundational to JetBlue. Despite these challenges, the investments that we've made in technology and process improvement are driving better performance. Fort Lauderdale is another clear example of our progress. We have grown rapidly and are seeing very strong customer demand for our added flying. We're working closely with the Broward County Aviation Department, who shares our common goal of building a stronger and more diversified portfolio of destinations for South Florida travelers.

We are very thankful for our long-standing partnership with the airport as we work together to formalize additional gate leases this fall. We made changes to enhance our customer experience, which in turn improved our revenue performance. second quarter RASM beat the midpoint of our revised and previously raised guidance. We were able to capitalize on strong demand across nearly all products and geographies, even as JetBlue and industry fares moved higher throughout the quarter. Fuel prices alone do not determine our earnings trajectory. What matters is how effectively we respond. Throughout the quarter, we made adjustments to both pricing and capacity in response to higher fuel costs. These actions, along with resilient customer demand, enabled us to recover fuel costs more quickly than we originally anticipated.

Based on the strength of demand and the traction from our commercial actions, we achieved nearly 50% fuel recapture in the second quarter, exceeding our expectation of 40% or more. Looking ahead, sustained demand strength gives us greater visibility into the second half, even as fuel prices remain very volatile. Assuming demand strength persists, we continue to expect to achieve 100% fuel recapture by early 2027. Following a very strong early start to the year, we withdrew our full-year outlook last quarter after the external environment changed dramatically over a short period of time, even though our confidence in the underlying business remained strong. Since then, demand has remained resilient, our commercial actions have proven effective, and fuel prices moderated as expected from the elevated levels we saw in April, recent volatility notwithstanding. Collectively, we believe these developments provide sufficient visibility to reestablish our full-year outlook.

We now expect full-year operating margin of approximately -2% to -5%, an improvement from our very challenging first half of the year. The midpoint of our guidance implies a significant inflection in our profitability, with second half operating margin approximately 3.5 points better year-over-year. We widened our operating margin range given the recent fuel volatility, still believe that pricing will continue to help offset higher fuel prices if they remain elevated. Despite this second half earnings improvement, we plan to continue to maintain a conservative capacity profile given that the geopolitical backdrop remains fluid and fuel remains volatile. JetForward is the key driver of our expected improvement. In the first half of 2026, we delivered $165 million of incremental EBIT from JetForward, bringing the cumulative benefit to $470 million.

The most important takeaway is that JetForward is doing exactly what we said it would do. We established a clear plan, committed to measurable milestones, and we're delivering against them. While there have undoubtedly been quarters influenced by factors outside of our control, from weather to macro, the underlying trajectory of the business continues to improve, and our confidence in the years ahead continues to grow. We are on track to deliver at least $310 million of incremental EBIT in 2026, and several of our largest initiatives are still ahead of us or in early ramp, including Blue Sky and BlueFirst, our new domestic first-class product. As those initiatives continue to ramp, we expect 2027 to mark a return to sustained operating profitability, an important milestone toward annual positive free cash flow.

Looking further ahead, we expect BlueFirst and other JetForward initiatives to continue ramping into 2028 and beyond, helping to drive JetForward annual incremental EBIT to approximately $1.2 billion and a return to positive pre-tax margin. Based on this planned trajectory, we expect to achieve 2028 EPS of at least $1 per share, assuming continued demand strength and an average of $3 per gallon jet fuel price in 2028. As I look ahead, our priorities and commitments are clear. Taking care of our people so they can deliver their best, executing JetForward, restoring sustained profitability, improving free cash flow, and strengthening our balance sheet. Our board and leadership team are confident that this disciplined focus is the right path, the best path to create long-term shareholder value while building a stronger, more resilient JetBlue. With that, over to you, Marty.

Thank you, Joanna, and thanks again to our crew members for their execution in the quarter. Our second quarter results reflect continued demand for the distinctive JetBlue product and traction from our JetForward initiatives. We delivered strong revenue performance in the second quarter, with revenue increasing 10.9% year-over-year, driven by robust consumer demand across our network. Importantly, demand held up well even as fares moved higher, and we did not see material signs of elasticity. Demand strength was robust throughout the booking curve, including close-in demand, and that strength has carried into the third quarter. Premium products, including Mint and EvenMore, continue to perform exceptionally well. Importantly, our Main cabin also saw meaningful improvement, benefiting from a healthy pricing environment and resilient leisure demand. Turning to Fort Lauderdale. Given our existing focus city there, Spirit's exit represented one of the most significant strategic opportunities JetBlue has seen in many years.

By this winter, we expect to operate more than 150 daily flights from Fort Lauderdale, our largest schedule ever from the airport, including our largest Mint presence as well. Earlier this month, we launched a more structured bank schedule with two southbounds and two northbound banks designed to better connect customers to the Caribbean and Latin America. The capacity is ramping well, and customer response to our added flying has been very positive. In the second quarter, Fort Lauderdale revenue was up 11%, even with capacity growth of nearly 40%. Turning to loyalty. Refreshed premium card and strong demand for BlueHouse benefit supported nearly 40% growth in new card acquisitions and 21% higher loyalty remuneration for the quarter.

We expect similar momentum when our second BlueHouse launch opens in Boston in August. In addition, South Florida was a standout contributor to our loyalty results, with TrueBlue enrollments growing 44% and co-brand acquisitions more than doubling year-over-year. This momentum reinforces our confidence that investments we made in loyalty will create value well beyond the quarter and keep us on track to deliver meaningful sequential growth and loyalty revenue over the coming quarters. We want to thank Barclays for their continued partnership. As the only major co-brand issuer without a competing proprietary travel card, Barclays is uniquely aligned with JetBlue and focused on growing the long-term value of our portfolio. More broadly, the earnings progress we've made, we've been delivering reflects our ability to better monetize demand across the network through JetForward.

We modernized our revenue management capabilities, which improves our ability to optimize premium products like Mint, better manages both local and connecting demand across our network, and unlocks new merchandising capabilities. We've added new ways to pay, now TrueBlue members can redeem TrueBlue points for EvenMore seats. Yesterday, we announced a simpler shopping experience that makes it easier for customers to compare our onboard experiences and fare options, expands customer choice, and creates more opportunities for customers to experience our premium products. Our Blue Sky partnership is another important contributor. It continues to ramp and reached another milestone in May with the introduction of reciprocal loyalty benefits for elite members. This further benefits customers and enhances their access to the broader network made available through the partnership.

Finally, Paisly continues to be an important part of our broader growth strategy, engagement is growing as customers use JetBlue Vacations and TrueBlue Travel to book more of their end-to-end travel. As part of Blue Sky, Paisly recently began distributing United's car rental products through the Paisly-powered Miles+ travel We look forward to powering our hotels later this year. Beyond the Blue Sky partnership, JetBlue continues to explore additional airline and non-airline partnerships as it continues to grow. Blue Sky and BlueFirst are two of our most meaningful commercial initiatives, we are still in the very early innings of realizing the associated margin benefits. BlueFirst is the largest individual JetForward initiative. It represents an important next step in evolving JetBlue's product offering, allowing us to better serve customers looking for a premium experience while strengthening unit revenue over time.

We plan to share additional product details and to launch sales in the fall. We remain on track to complete the majority of our retrofit work by the end of 2027 and expect BlueFirst full revenue and margin contribution to continue building in 2028 and beyond. At run rate, we believe BlueFirst will support meaningful unit revenue and margin expansion, including nearly five points of RASM growth. These initiatives reinforce our confidence in JetForward and the earnings power we are building across the business. Turning to our outlook. We're starting the third quarter from a stronger position with substantially more of the booking curve exposed to today's favorable pricing environment.

With that context, we expect the strong revenue trends we saw in the first half to continue into the third quarter, regarding third quarter capacity growth of 3%-6% year-over-year and RASM 12.5%-16.5% year-over-year. For the full year, we expect capacity to increase 1.5%-3.5% year-over-year and RASM to increase 10%-12.5% year-over-year, supported by healthy demand, a strong yield environment, and continued execution on JetForward. While July has been more operationally challenging, our outlook assumes third quarter completion factor returns to historic levels for the balance of the quarter. We remain optimistic about our revenue trajectory for the balance of the year. Since 2019, prices across the broader economy have increased meaningfully, yet airfares started the year down in real terms by approximately 30%.

This gives us confidence that the pricing environment that we are seeing now is sustainable. Even with a strong pricing environment, our capacity plan remains highly disciplined. The second half, we're concentrating our incremental growth into Fort Lauderdale, where we have seen a compelling opportunity to strengthen our network and deepen our relevance with leisure customers. As a result, all of our net capacity growth is expected to come from Fort Lauderdale, while capacity across the rest of the network is expected to be down year-over-year. In mid-July, as fuel prices increased, we decided to reduce our fourth quarter schedule by approximately one point, reinforcing our commitment to growing only where we can see the strongest returns. Our plan is to remain disciplined. We plan to revisit capacity again as needed.

At LaGuardia, we've recently secured additional slots and are excited for the opportunity to build a more robust schedule to Florida for our most loyal customers in both New York and down south. While we currently operate from Terminal B, we continue to seek a return to the lower cost and more convenient Marine Air Terminals. In conclusion, we have a strong commercial backdrop in place and our revenue and network initiatives further strengthen our conviction in our outlook for the second half of 2026 and beyond. With that, I will hand it over to Ursula to walk through fuel costs and our financial performance in more detail.

Thank you, Marty. The revenue progress and network actions Marty shared reflect our strong execution and provide us a clear path through the balance of the year. Of course, we continue to manage the business conservatively, given the potential for further volatility in fuel prices. Against that backdrop, we remain focused on disciplined execution across the levers within our control. Our capacity, pricing, and cost actions helped offset nearly 50% of the higher fuel costs in the second quarter while preserving our flexibility to remain nimble as conditions evolve. Turning to CASM ex-fuel, we delivered second quarter performance ahead of our guidance range. CASM ex-fuel increased 2.4% year-over-year, approximately one and a half points better than the midpoint of our guidance, reflecting strong execution as well as a shift in timing of expenses.

Looking ahead, we expect third quarter CASM ex-fuel to increase 2.5%-4.5% year-over-year. We continue to expect non-fuel unit cost growth to moderate meaningfully in the second half of the year as JetForward cost savings initiatives take hold. For the full year, we now expect CASM ex-fuel to increase 2%-4% year-over-year. Excluding the impact of first quarter weather-related operational disruptions, we remain on track with our initial full year CASM ex-fuel outlook. This reflects disciplined execution across the business as we continue to offset headwinds while investing strategically in our operation, our crew members, and the customer experience. Turning to fuel. We have used our normal process and timing for marking fuel and acknowledge pricing has been extremely volatile the past few weeks.

Given strong customer demand and our ability to adjust capacity, we believe pricing will provide an offset if recent fuel price increases stick. Using the forward fuel curve at market close on July 10th, we expect fuel price per gallon to be $3.49 for both the third quarter and the full year. We remain focused on fuel optimization with cross-functional teams increasingly leveraging real-time data and advanced technology to improve efficiency. Whether it's identifying more efficient routing opportunities in flight, providing pilots with personalized operational insights, or using predictive planning and ground operation analytics to improve consistency, we're creating a more connected, data-driven approach to fuel management across the airline. Together with our fleet modernization efforts, these initiatives keep us on track to achieve our fuel efficiency improvement goals.

Turning to capital expenditures, we expect third quarter CapEx of approximately $300 million, and full year 2026 CapEx of approximately $850 million, driven primarily by 12 aircraft deliveries this year, the initial spend associated with retrofitting aircraft for BlueFirst, and the incremental LaGuardia slots we recently secured. We continue to expect annual CapEx to remain below $1 billion through the end of the decade. This level of investment supports prudent long-term capacity growth while preserving flexibility and maintaining our focus on generating free cash flow. Turning to the balance sheet, we executed a $500 million aircraft-backed financing transaction in the second quarter, further strengthening our liquidity position. We ended the quarter with $2.2 billion of cash and investment securities, representing approximately 23% of trailing 12-month revenue, excluding our $600 million undrawn credit facility.

We remain committed to maintaining liquidity within our target range of 17%-20% of trailing 12-month revenue while optimizing our cost of capital. Should additional financing be required, the amount and timing will depend on how fuel and the macro environment evolves. We would expect to first look to the aircraft-backed transactions accordion while also evaluating other low-cost opportunities. We expect to continue to take a disciplined and proactive approach to managing the balance sheet with a focus on preserving liquidity, reducing interest expense where possible, supporting JetForward, and positioning the business for sustained profitability. I want to be clear that I am very confident in our plan and optimistic about the direction we are heading. We believe we are reaching a major inflection point in the business.

RASM is now expected to be 10-plus points higher than CASM ex-fuel in the second half, and we expect operating margin to improve by approximately 3.5 points year-over-year, demonstrating the meaningful operating leverage we are beginning to realize. That progress extends beyond 2026. As JetForward initiatives already underway continue to mature and BlueFirst begins to ramp, we expect to return to sustained operating profitability in 2027 and make meaningful progress towards positive free cash flow. Looking to 2028, our confidence in the earnings power we are building is reflected in our EPS target of at least $1 per share. After navigating a highly volatile first half of the year and month of July, we look forward with greater visibility and a stronger financial outlook.

The financial roadmap we've outlined today makes clear why we are confident in our plan and why this is the plan we are pursuing. While there is still work ahead, we believe the progress we've made has positioned JetBlue for meaningful earnings acceleration in the second half of the year and a stronger financial trajectory in the years ahead. We remain firmly focused on restoring sustained profitability, generating free cash flow, strengthening the balance sheet, and creating meaningful long-term value for our shareholders. With that, we are happy to take your questions. Back over to you, Alexandra.

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Yeah. Hey, good morning everyone.

Marty, I just want to sort of dig into Fort Lauderdale. I think actually Joanna mentioned about working with the county and being able to secure more leases. I think you mentioned that as well. How big could you actually get in Fort Lauderdale? You talk about 150 or 150 more, and as you've built out that hub, can you just give us some data on just connectivity today versus where it was local versus connect, and where you actually see it going? Then I have a follow-up.

Hey, Mike. Thanks for the question. We said we're going to be over 150 at the end of 2026 or early 2027. We do think there's another tranche of growth that can come in. I think it's important to note that as a company, we're growing basically low to mid single digits. We don't have an aggressive growth rate beyond this. We're extremely excited where our numbers are right now.

I say we've spent a lot of time working with the County to make sure that we have the facilities we need. It is going to be tough because especially for international arrivals, that's a constrained airport. I have complete confidence we'll get to where we need to be with the County. We are building a terminal 5 there, but that's going to be a 2030 arrival, if we're lucky. Again, our results are fantastic. I'd love to grow faster, but I think what we're doing right now is quite prudent. As far as banking connectivity, I don't really want to give a number. It'll be well under 50% because South Florida does have very good local demand. What we're very excited about more than anything is how the banking brings a lot more destinations into the mix in the North.

The example I think you gave was Albany.

If you look at Boston and New York, we have great access to any leisure destination in the Americas. If you look at places like Albany, we went to Lauderdale and Orlando. Now, with connectivity in Fort Lauderdale, if you're a customer in Albany, for example, you get access to all of the Caribbean and everywhere we fly in Central and South America. I think it's really a game changer.

for Blue as much as it is for just a local market.

Just my second question to Ursula on the initial phase of a Pratt agreement here. It looks like it is through 2025, so presumably, I guess that covers 2 years of disruption. As I recall, you had highlighted that it was maybe 3 points of margin on a direct basis versus there is also an indirect element. This has got to be one of the biggest Pratt deals out there. It seems like it is one of the last ones to actually get done, although I guess you are going to get compensated for 2026 and beyond. How are we going to see this in the numbers? How should we look at this? Is this going to be, going forward, some reduction in D&A, some reduction in maintenance expense? This is a big deal and it should find its way into the P&L.

How should we think about the potential benefits from this? Thank you. Good morning, Mike.

Thanks for the question. We are pleased to have an initial settlement complete with Pratt. You are correct, this closes out 2024 and 2025. 80% of the settlement will be a reduction in operating expense between now and the end of 2027, and 20% of it will be a reduction to CapEx. At a high level, about 25% of the settlement will impact 2026, and obviously is included in our guide, and then the remainder will hit 2027.

Great. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Baker with J.P.

Morgan. Jamie, your line is now open. Please go ahead. Hey. Good morning, everybody.

Marty, looking for a little bit more color on BlueFirst. It obviously took the industry quite some time to monetize the front of domestic cabins, but consumers have adapted, so I'm assuming the ramp for JetBlue is going to be much steeper, much quicker than Delta's decade-long journey in this regard. Further to that, can you begin monetizing with the very first aircraft, or do you effectively have to wait until most of the retrofits are done? I know 2028 is the real ramp to run rate. I'm just trying to think of how to layer on any yield benefits in 2027.

Great, Jamie. Thank you. I will start actually with our experience with Mint. We were a little bit different when we started Mint versus the rest of the industry. For many, many years, there was no way to get into the Mint cabin without paying for it. Our job was to basically come up with everyday low prices that would give the most value to customers. Although we do have limited ways to get into Mint with points right now, we fundamentally believe we can provide a great product at a very reasonable price. I think we have 15 years of experience in the industry monetizing the first-class cabin, and I think we expect to take full advantage of all the ways to get into that cabin that our competitors have already demonstrated to be successful. Actually, we're very excited about it.

I think we'll give you more detail on the ramp as we get closer in, but we are very excited to get customer benefits very quickly. I'll give you the one sneak tip is, we're going to have one airplane out there this fall, probably the first one will not be monetized, but the minute we get to two, we're going to start selling this product on the fleet as it flies.

Okay, helpful. Ursula, just following up on your prepared remarks regarding liquidity. Given the delay in the move to positive cash flow, how should Mark and I think about the cadence of liquidity against current cash burn, your targets, your options? We know there's this meeting coming up next week to meet with lenders and creditors. Maybe you could give us some color on that. Do you intend to raise more liquidity? With loyalty trading over 13% right now, what's your assumed cost of other liquidity options that you referenced if you decide to go down that path? Thanks in advance. Appreciate the question, Jamie.

First and foremost, our liquidity target is 17%-20% of trailing 12-month revenue. I'm extremely pleased with where we ended the quarter. We're at 23%. Obviously, our liquidity needs in the back half of the year are heavily going to depend on the fuel environment. I was pleased within the second quarter, we executed a $500 million aircraft-backed financing deal. The average rate on that deal was 6.5%. As part of that deal, the deal has an accordion feature that is $250 million at the 6.5%. If we need liquidity in the second half of this year, our number one priority will be pulling on the accordion. If we need liquidity above and beyond that, given oil, we will look to do additional aircraft financing.

I want to also remind everyone, across the entirety of our capital structure, our weighted average cost to debt is 6.8%. We're very focused on cost to capital and the interest expense level that we have on the books, and we're going to be extremely thoughtful with any additional liquidity needs. We do have a normal course business meeting next week with investors. This is a consistent approach that we've taken over the last several years. We engage within the quarter with equity and fixed income investors across conferences, non-deal roadshows, one-on-ones. We also historically have done in-person and virtual meetings with senior leadership to better understand the investor perspective, and quite frankly, to communicate the progress that we're making on JetForward.

Next week's meeting with fixed income investors, it is ongoing outreach, and we're only going to be discussing what's publicly available in terms of information on the company and JetForward. We're very much looking forward to the discussion.

Thanks, Ursula. Your next question comes from the line of John Godden with Citigroup.

John, your line is now open. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks for taking my question.

You mentioned that we're at a major inflection point for initiatives, and you've given a lot of great detail for the balance of 2026. I was hoping we could just spend a minute talking more about how things layer on in 2027 and then 2028 to ultimately hit the dollar number. I'm not sure if things are getting phased on uniformly, front-end loaded, back-end loaded, when we think about 2027. I know Jamie asked about the BlueFirst retrofit timeline, but I just wanted to square up the numbers more broadly, the cost initiatives, Blue Sky, how things are maturing, whatever you're willing to reveal.

Perfect, John. Thanks, I'll take that. I think headline our strategy, it remains unchanged. This is all about JetForward working. There's really nothing new in the way of initiatives. What you're seeing is initiatives continuing to mature and build on one another. End of 2027, we expect to deliver $850 million-$950 million of incremental EBIT. After that, Blue Sky, some of our cost initiatives, BlueFirst, continue to mature and become much more meaningful contributors in 2028, particularly BlueFirst. Obviously, that's the one the bulk of the fleet will be done through 2027. We'll complete it first half or so of 2028. That's really the momentum in terms of those 2028 earnings. These initiatives compound in 2028 and drive the $1.2 incremental EBIT. You should think of that basically supporting the roughly $1 of EPS for 2028.

One of the reasons why we put that dollar out there is because current consensus doesn't accurately reflect how these initiatives do build over time. As I said, BlueFirst in particular, that's the one where we see pretty strong momentum into 2028, and we're hoping that this better aligns the investor framework with the earnings trajectory that we're seeing with these JetForward initiatives. Maybe another add, I'll just say all of this does contemplate $3 jet fuel price in 2028. I think we mentioned low to mid-single capacity growth, mid-single-digit RASM growth, and low single-digit CASM ex-fuel in 2027 and 2028.

Okay, great. That was helpful color. Just to follow up on for 2026, you talked about the meaningful moderation in CASM ex-fuel in the second half as initiatives take hold. I was just hoping you could add a bit of color and elaborate there.

Yeah. Thanks for the question, John. We've been extremely pleased with the team's execution on controllable costs. If you exclude the Q1 disruptions that we experienced, we've maintained our full-year controllable cost guide. The initiatives within JetForward continue to ramp in the back half of the year. I think I would point to three areas of focus. We've created and introduced new digital tools across a few different teams, customer support, airports, maintenance, and that's enabling task automation, faster access to information, and just the team is more empowered to make decisions more quickly. The second area is we're continuing to modernize our technology infrastructure, which is driving greater optimization of cloud usage and infrastructure costs. We're moving to a more scalable, lower-cost model within the technology framework.

The third is, we're really leaning into data science across a multitude of operational teams, across various areas, right? Crew disruption management, improving crew utilization, improving reliability. That's kind of the third area where we're leaning into. The team's doing a great job in execution, and you're seeing that benefit in the back half of the year as well as a slight step-up in capacity as well. Those are the really drivers of execution. The last thing I would add is, over the next two years, the ultimate goal is to deliver low-to-mid single-digit capacity growth. As a result, we're going to have a low single-digit CASM ex-fuel. We believe that that's really foundational to help us achieve the 850 to 950 in JetForward and ultimately deliver at least a $1 EPS in 2028.

That's great. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

Brandon, your line is now open. Please go ahead. Good morning.

Thanks for taking the question. Marty, I wonder if you could talk more generally about the pricing environment, especially post-Spirit. I know you've talked a lot about Fort Lauderdale, but maybe more generally across your network. The outlook for mid-single digit annual RASM growth in 2027 and 2028. That would be pretty significant. I guess a lot of investors are just worried that what is different this time? If fuel prices do come down, doesn't the industry ultimately give it back? Thank you. Hey, Brandon. Thanks for the question.

Let me just start by saying air travel is still an incredibly good value. Back to a point we made in the script. On a real basis, airfares started 2026 down 30% from where they were in 2019. You will not find any other major commodity in this economy that has that much decline in their real pricing. Even with the changes that happened in 2026, we are still well below 2019 levels. That's point number one. Point number two is, even in a world where we've got an industry where the majority of airlines are not profitable, even the profitable airlines are well below their returns that they had in the teens. I think if you look at the environment we're seeing right now, the lack of elasticity proves that customers actually recognize that it's still a really, really good value.

As far as the RASM growth in 2027, 2028, it's one of the reasons why in the script, I specifically called out the BlueFirst benefit. I think if you think of a run rate BlueFirst RASM of five points, then back that out of the mid-single digit number, I think you'll recognize that the RASM growth, the underlying RASM growth absent BlueFirst is actually a lot lower than the number we've called out. That's one of the reasons why I called it out specifically, because I knew someone was going to ask this question, and we wanted to make sure we gave you as much guidance as we could, because it is really a unique initiative that we have, very similar to what we saw with Mint.

When we looked at Mint originally 10 years ago, we saw an airline where coach cabin to coach cabin, we performed extremely well. Our competitors had 20 points of RASM on top of that that came from their premium cabin that we didn't have. That's actually the benefit we're going to get with BlueFirst, which is getting new revenue on the airplane that we didn't have before.

I appreciate that, Marty. Ursula, just really quick, it sounds like in the near term, you think your liquidity is fine, and I think you said end of 2027 reaching positive free cash flow. Can you unpack that a little bit?

Yeah, listen, clearly we are on a path to deliver a positive operating margin in 2027. The goal will be to deliver positive free cash flow next year. We've taken the steps to lay out the order book to give us a runway to actually deliver that. I continue to be pleased with JetForward execution. That's definitely the goal in 2027.

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore.

Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks.

Maybe just to start with where you left off on that last question on the run rate of five points for BlueFirst, when do you think you'll hit that run rate? Can you quantify maybe in like a fourth quarter, how much tailwind there would be from this BlueFirst?

Let me start by saying fourth quarter 2026, it'll be de minimis because it'll be a smaller rear planes that come relatively late. I think it's not a number you should be modeling. We've got a pretty aggressive schedule in 2027 of installations. The majority of the planes will be done by the end of 2027, but it's really going to be into 2028 before you see the entire fleet done. Any hitting of run rate is going to be late 2028 or 2029. We're not looking at this as something that's going to accelerate fast as far as run rate. We see this as a prudent addition in the revenue sort of portfolio for JetBlue.

Okay. Thanks, Marty. That's helpful. Then, from arm's length, if we just look at maybe some of the changes and some of the opportunities that opened up, it feels like you're maybe de-emphasizing higher cost airports, and redeploying into a lower cost airports. Maybe just react to that concept. How far along are you in that transition, and is there any way to quantify the cost tailwind or the margin tailwind once this transition is complete?

Hey, Duane, I'll take that. We can take offline what the cost tailwind is and calculate that. I think from a high level perspective, we're very mindful of the cost to operate at higher cost airports, and we haven't been quiet about that. It's one of the reasons why we'd love to move back to the Marine Air Terminal at LaGuardia, assuming there would be a lower operating cost there with the slots that we have secured. With that said, Fort Lauderdale is a great deal, particularly when you compare it to Miami. Spirit's liquidation has presented us with a great opportunity to redeploy some of the flying that we see at some of these higher cost airports into Fort Lauderdale, and provide a better experience for customers at a lower price, given the differential in cost that Beak has been able to achieve with operating down there.

It's very front and center. JetBlue was founded on affordable air travel, and we want to make sure we continue to deliver that mission. It does require us to look very carefully at the places we're flying. When we speak with airport authorities, this is item number 1. While people love the fountains and the artwork, at the end of the day, we need to make sure that these airports are really providing what matters the most to people so that we can truly pass on low airfares to customers flying us.

Okay. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Savanthi Syth with Raymond James.

Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning, everyone.

Marty, if I might- Morning on Fort Lauderdale, just another question.

Unit revenue up 11% despite kind of 40% growth is impressive. I'm guessing that's a combination of a drag from the market ramp, but then offset by maybe kind of Spirit exiting. I was just kind of curious if that's the right way to think about it and how we should think about then the kind of the sequential improvement as those kind of growth matures over the next 6 months-12 months.

Hey, Savi. Thanks for the question. I think the experience we had in Fort Lauderdale is somewhat unique for the industry. Certainly for the last 20 years, an airline flying 80, 90 flights a day that disappears overnight. There was an incredible amount of pent-up demand in Broward County already for travel, and I think you can see from our announcement, we've been planning in this for a long time. We announced it within hours of them shutting down, and we've been really, really excited to try to backfill what would represent the most profitable paths of Spirit if we were to fly it. Clearly, if you look at our results, the capacity has taken very well. We're basically at slightly above system average RASM for this time period on 40% growth. That shows you how optimistic we are about the market.

We added service, we had competitors who added service. There are certainly places where we do continue to see upside, but I'd say the ramp overall was quicker than we thought. There's certainly upside because there are definitely markets that are standing out sort of more conventionally. I think markets where we were less well-known. Overall we could not be more bullish about Lauderdale, and we look forward to continuing the growth.

I'll just add, other areas beyond just the airfare component. We're well-known in South Florida, but not that well-known because we haven't had as robust a schedule. We have an opportunity to really strengthen awareness down there, deepen customer penetration. Our loyalty program, it's relatively immature for South Florida, there's, we believe, tremendous upside in delivering a great TrueBlue program. Obviously looking at BlueHouse and Fort Lauderdale longer term as we work through available spaces. This is very early stages and excited by the opportunity that it presents to JetBlue.

That's all helpful. Thank you. If I just might on the BlueFirst, how many kind of EvenMore seats than Main seats are kind of being offset by it? I'm sure the RASM opportunity is much greater, but I'm just not clear about how much of the other kind of seats you'll be cannibalizing on this.

We have not released the details of that yet. I think we will later on in the year when we actually announce the details of the product. We're really excited about what the BlueFirst cabin is going to offer our customers. We will be making some changes to the EvenMore cabin because one of the points that we had made was that we have incredible pent-up demand from our existing customers for this product. I think it's fair to say that EvenMore cabins will be slightly smaller than they are right now. Overall, no matter which experience you choose as a customer, we're excited about the value we're going to offer the customers, whether it's Main Cabin, EvenMore, or BlueFirst.

Understood. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs.

Catherine, your line is now open. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning, everyone.

Thanks for the time. Your 2027 and 2028 high-level assumptions, that drive the $1 plus EPS in 2028 include mid-single-digit RASM and then low single-digit CASM. Ursula, I think in your response to John earlier, you mentioned capacity would be low single-digit, correct me if I'm wrong there, and you would still be able to hold CASM ex that low single-digit inflation. That's better than your longer-term guidance that you'd need to be growing mid-single-digit to get to low single-digit CASM. I guess, what's driving that better performance over the next couple of years? Thanks. Sorry. Yeah. The growth projections have always been low to mid-single-digit capacity over the next two years.

In that scenario, Katie, we believe we can deliver a low single-digit CASM ex-fuel growth. In terms of top line, mid-single-digit RASM. These are kind of the high-level inputs that are going to deliver, quite frankly, positive operating margin next year, and in turn, at least dollar EPS in 2028. Specific to costs, we have a really strong record of hitting our controllable cost guides. This is just a continued ramp-up of the initiatives. I mentioned some of them earlier, just around data science, digital tools, modernizing our technology infrastructure. These continue to grow and impact, obviously, 2027 in our achievement of the $850 million to $950 million EBIT in 2027, and in turn, the EPS target in 2028.

Okay, great. That's helpful. Just wanted to dig in a little bit more on the new slots in LaGuardia. Obviously, back when you were pulling down out of the Northeast Alliance, that was a very different structure you had at LaGuardia then. Can you just talk about how maybe the routes, the lower cost terminal change how you think about what the margin impact of adding at LaGuardia will be, versus the growth you had put up a couple of years ago? Any color there would be helpful. Thanks. Yeah, Katie. To be clear, this is nothing like what we did during NEA.

There's basically no comparison whatsoever. We have a very successful franchise from LaGuardia to Florida. Obviously Florida is a very important destination for Metro New York customers. I think we said that we see this as a chance to bolster our Florida services out of LaGuardia. We are also working with the Port Authority and very optimistic and hopeful about being able to get into the Marine Air Terminal. Significantly cheaper cost per enplanement versus what we see in Terminal B. No fountains, but definitely lower cost, which means hopefully better fares for our customers.

Very helpful, Marty. Thanks. Your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Great, thanks.

Morning, everyone. Just one follow-up from me, just on the 2028 guide itself. I get that you guys have cleared an inflection in JetForward, but there is obviously still a lot going on in the world. If you can just give us a little more color on what gave you the confidence in giving us this guide now, versus maybe waiting a little bit longer, and just how detached from the macro these assumptions are. Thank you. Yeah, maybe I will take it.

At the end of the day, we see the underlying business performing. We are seeing these JetForward initiatives continuing to gain traction. As you know, industry revenue trends are improving, and fares are finally beginning to catch up after years of lagging broader inflation. The 2028 EPS guide assumes the current fare is the baseline, we do not assume further acceleration. Obviously, the ability to recover and recapture higher fuel costs has been a positive in all of this. At the end of the day, as I mentioned, our biggest concern is consensus does not reflect how these initiatives are building over time. We did not feel that it was fully capturing the impact of BlueFirst and BlueFirst ramping.

When you look at the incremental EBIT that is needed to accomplish that $1.20, it is $300 million over the 2027 JetForward number. We are going to have that this year alone. We felt confident that it was the right time to do this. Obviously, if the war in Iran continues and fuel goes up much higher than it is today, that is something that we in the industry would need to adjust for. This assumes a $3.00 jet fuel price in 2028. Listen, it has gone up, it could go down just as easily. Your guess is as good as mine on that front. In terms of what we control, we feel confident that these JetForward initiatives are working and it is the cumulative impact of them driving this benefit.

Understood. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Tom Fitzgerald with TD Cowen.

Tom, your line is now open. Please go ahead. Hi, everyone.

Thanks very much for the time. Question for Marty on Paisly. You talked about being in conversations with other airlines. If that comes to fruition, is that contemplated in the guide already, or would that be incremental to an upside to what you've discussed today?

Hey, Tom. Thanks for asking. No, it's not in the guide. We did put the benefits of the United relationship in the guide when we updated to $850-$950, there's no assumption in here about additional airlines or non-airline partners besides that. Obviously, if something comes to fruition, we'll be clearly making an update for investors.

Okay. That's really helpful. Great to see the growth in cash remuneration for loyalty. As some of the overall carrot and stick flywheel keeps maturing, do you think that could continue growing at those type of rates? How do you think about growth in the program here? Thanks again for the time.

Thanks, Tom. We're actually very optimistic about TrueBlue growth, and more importantly, credit card growth. One thing that is very clear to us is that we are under-penetrated for TrueBlue in Florida. We've had enrollments double. We have the co-brand sign-ups up well into double digits. I think that reflects the runway that we see going ahead of us. I also feel like the addition of the connecting opportunities, connecting operation in Fort Lauderdale is going to really help us in our bread and butter markets of New England and New York, as far as creating more access to more destinations for a lot of the places, the sort of secondary markets outside of JFK and Boston. We are really bullish about TrueBlue, and I'll go back to the point that I made earlier, which is, we are very fortunate to be working with Barclays.

When they're looking at making an investment, they're not trying to decide whether they want to spend the money on us or they want to spend it on their proprietary card. It's all focused on their co-brand partners. We think that's really a great advantage for us. I think it is being shown in the numbers we've seen. Some of our competitors talked about remuneration numbers in their quarterly response. No one's got a first digit that's a two on it. I think we're really, really bullish.

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open. Please hold. Hey, thanks. Good morning.

Scott, your line is now open. Please go ahead. Thanks. Good morning.

Ursula, your comment, if fuel ends up a little bit higher, we can offset that with price and certainly you in the industry have been doing that. Maybe can you just give an update, as fuel has picked up again in July, any update of you and broader industry, incremental fare increases, anything like that? Any color you can add?

I'll start and then I'll have Marty add on to what he's seeing in the revenue environment. We were pleased in the second quarter, we exceeded our fuel recapture. We achieved 50%. Obviously, in the third quarter, we're going to take advantage of more of the booking curve being at elevated fare levels that have transpired across the sector. Our fuel recapture number in the third quarter is definitely going to meaningfully step change beyond the 50%. I also said in my remarks that the goal is to at least 100% recapture by early 2027. Maybe Marty, over to you just on revenue environment.

Sure. Thanks, Ursula, and thanks, Scott. Listen, let me start by saying that, yes, air travel is a very good value. Nobody loves fare increases. At the end of the day, this is a business where we have to cover our costs. If you look at the cost structure of the industry, absent fuel, versus the period before COVID, the industry costs are up 30%, 40%. Prices haven't come anywhere close to matching that. I think we're seeing right now is that because of this very, very long period without real price increases in the industry, I think we're finally seeing some pricing traction for the industry. Again, still a great value. We continue to do our Uber test, which is $150 from JFK to Midtown and $99 from JFK to Fort Lauderdale.

By the way, to go to Midtown, it's one person in a car that costs $50,000 versus a $60 million airplane. It's a fantastic value. I think customers are seeing that, and that's why we're seeing such good responses to elasticity.

Okay. Last one, Ursula, just quickly, I know you mentioned 75% of the Pratt cost benefit is in 2027. Is there any way to quantify what the CASM benefit is or the dollar benefit of that is?

Yeah, I mentioned earlier in a Q&A response. The total settlement is $105 million. 80% of that is going to hit operating expense. 25% will hit in 2026 and impact CASM ex-fuel, and then the remainder will hit in 2027. You should be able to get there from that.

Thank you. Yep. Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Didora with Bank of America.

Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning.

Ursula, when we think about the 2028 guidance and CASM being up low single digits, understood that this is probably the item that you have the most color into, given your capacity. I guess what was the framework or what did you include in that number, from a new labor deal perspective over the next two and a half years, and maybe what type of headwind that presents for CASM embedded in that number? That's it for me. Thanks.

Listen, at the highest level, our 2028 guide assumes labor assumptions for each of our work groups that we think are market competitive. That is included in our low single-digit CASM ex-fuel assumption in 2028. In addition to that, it is just the continued ramp-up and benefit of all of the cost initiatives within JetForward. I kind of highlighted the areas earlier around data science, digital tools, technology infrastructure. It's the combination of those two major inputs that generate a low single-digit CASMx.

Okay. Thank you. Our last question comes from the line of Atul Maheshwari with UBS.

Your line is now open. Please go ahead. Good morning.

Thanks a lot for taking my question. Your guidance is calling for fourth quarter revenues or RASM to decelerate relative to the third. That's different to how your peers have guided for fourth quarter. I'm just trying to understand if there's anything different going on in JetBlue relative to what your peers might be seeing. If not, what's the rationale behind why fourth quarter revenue growth would decelerate relatively to the third at JetBlue?

Hi, Atul. Thanks for the question. I'll say two things. First of all, it's still a RASM growth that's end of the teen, we actually like the RASM growth we have. I think if you were to go dig deep into 2025, you would see that third quarter to fourth quarter, there was a pretty big inflection in the fourth quarter last year. I think if you look at the macroeconomic impact that we faced, especially as a more of a leisure airline versus some of the airlines that were more business. Third quarter was really a period that was pretty well impacted, but we saw great acceleration in fourth quarter. We're assuming that it will have a much more normal curve in fourth quarter 2026 versus fourth quarter 2025. This is really a question of comps more than any lack of underlying strength.

Understood. That's helpful. Then, as my quick follow-up, what's your assumption around industry capacity or competitive capacity over the next few years that's embedded in the mid-single-digit RASM expectations for 2027 and 2028?

Yeah, we're basically looking at the current growth rates we're seeing. I call it low to mid-single digits, maybe closer to mid than low, but based on what we're seeing in delivery schedules and stuff like that, retirements, it's slightly higher than our assumption, but than our own number, but not dramatically. Our assumption for JetBlue- Thanks for that and good luck with it.

Okay. Good luck with the rest of the year.

Thank you. Again, we will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation.