Kirby Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Call

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Kirby Corporation 2026 second quarter earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Matt Kerin, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Good morning, and thank you for joining the Kirby Corporation 2026 second quarter earnings call.

With me today are David Grzebinski, Kirby's Chief Executive Officer, Christian O'Neil, Kirby's President and Chief Operating Officer, and Raj Kumar, Kirby's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. A slide presentation for today's conference call, as well as the earnings release, which was issued earlier today, can be found on our website. During this conference call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings press release and are also available on our website in the Investor Relations section under Financials. As a reminder, statements contained in this conference call with respect to the future are forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management's reasonable judgment with respect to future events.

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated as a result of various factors. A list of these risk factors can be found in Kirby's latest Form 10-K filing and in our other filings made with the SEC from time to time. I will now turn the call over to David.

Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everyone. Earlier today, we announced second quarter earnings per share of $1.67, up 11% sequentially and in line with the prior year quarter. Our results reflected solid execution across both our businesses, supported by constructive marine transportation fundamentals, high asset utilization, and ongoing momentum in key Distribution and Services markets. In marine transportation, customer demand remained healthy. Utilization levels were strong, and inland marine pricing continued to improve. In Distribution and Services, results benefited from continued demand growth in power generation and strong marine repair activity. Overall, our businesses performed well during the quarter, supported by healthy end market conditions, disciplined execution, and our continued focus on operating safely and efficiently. In inland marine, market fundamentals strengthened during the quarter, supported by strong refinery utilization, increased refined product and crude-related movements, and healthy petrochemical activity.

These factors, combined with limited industry capacity additions, supported barge utilization in below 90% range. We continued to see positive pricing momentum during the quarter, with spot market rates improving sequentially and term contract renewals increasing year-over-year. Notably, current spot market pricing has improved from recent lows in the fourth quarter of last year and has returned to levels last seen a year ago. You will recall that in mid-2025, a sharp reduction in heavy crude imports into the Gulf Coast, primarily from Venezuela, weighed on refining activity and related byproduct movements. Those conditions have since improved, with Venezuelan imports now well above first half 2025 levels. However, as previously communicated, rising fuel costs created a temporary margin headwind during the quarter. Although we expect this impact to reverse in the third quarter as contractual recovery mechanisms take effect.

Overall, the inland business delivered operating margins in the high teen range, reflecting healthy demand, strong utilization, and improving pricing. In coastal marine, customer demand remained healthy during the quarter, with barge utilization in the high 90% range. Market-specific dynamics affecting certain small capacity ATBs in the 80,000-100,000-barrel range resulted in low single-digit declines in term contract renewal rates. However, overall market conditions remained favorable, supported by strong refinery utilization, strong customer demand, and limited availability of large capacity vessels. Our coastal business delivered operating margins in the low to mid-teen range, reflecting the impact of elevated shipyard activity as previously disclosed. Turning to Distribution and Services, our performance reflected the strength of our positioning across a diverse set of end markets. Segment revenues increased 6% year-over-year, supported by sustained growth in power generation and continued strength in our commercial and industrial business.

Operating margins improved more than 300 basis points sequentially, reflecting a favorable mix, including greater activity on behind-the-meter power solutions in our power generation business. In power generation, revenues increased 8% year-over-year, with demand for behind-the-meter and backup power solutions continuing to be driven by durable secular trends. While demand remains robust, the timing of OEM engine deliveries continues to govern how quickly we can fulfill orders. In commercial and industrial, revenues increased 12% year-over-year, supported by healthy marine repair activity and continued growth across several end markets. In oil and gas, revenues improved sequentially from the first quarter, but were still down year-over-year, as the activity remained subdued despite modest improvement in market conditions from recent lows. Overall, segment delivered solid results across the portfolio, demonstrating the strength of the company's market positions and the momentum in several key growth areas.

In summary, Kirby delivered a solid quarter, underscoring the strength of our operating model and the momentum we are seeing across both businesses. In marine transportation, inland performance continued to improve, driven by pricing gains and healthy barge utilization, while coastal demand and utilization remained strong despite market-specific pricing pressure in certain areas of the fleet. In Distribution and Services, power generation remained a key growth driver. Commercial and industrial activity performed well, and oil and gas showed sequential improvement from recent lows. Taken together, these trends reinforce our confidence in the outlook for the remainder of the year, which I will discuss in more detail later in the call. First, I will turn it over to Raj to walk through the segment results, balance sheet, and capital allocation.

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. In the second quarter of 2026, marine transportation segment revenues were $537 million, and operating income was $88 million with an operating margin of 16.4%. Compared to the second quarter of 2025, total marine transportation revenues increased $44 million or 9%, while operating income decreased $11 million or 11%. The year-over-year decline in operating income primarily reflected the temporary impact of higher fuel costs before contractual recovery mechanisms take effect, as well as elevated shipyard activity in coastal marine. Compared to the first quarter of 2026, total marine revenues increased 8%, while operating income decreased 2%. Looking at the inland business in more detail. Inland contributed 80% of marine transportation segment revenue, with average barge utilization in the low 90% range for the quarter.

Long-term contracts or those with a term of one year or longer contributed approximately 65% of inland revenue, with 57% from time charters and 43% from contracts of affreightment. Improved market conditions resulted in average spot market rates increasing in the low to mid-single digit range sequentially while remaining down in the low single digit range year-over-year. Term contracts that renewed during the second quarter increased in the low single digit range year-over-year. Compared to the second quarter of 2025, inland revenues increased 9%, while operating margins were in the high teens range. Moving to the coastal business. Coastal represented 20% of revenues in the marine transportation segment, with average barge utilization in the high 90% range, above both the first quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2025.

For the quarter, the percentage of coastal revenue under term contracts was approximately 93%, of which approximately 100% were time charters. Renewals of term contracts were down in the low single digit range year-over-year due to previously mentioned market dynamics in the 80,000-100,000 barrel ATB market. Coastal revenues increased 10% year-over-year with operating margins in the low to mid-teens range. Coastal was impacted by elevated shipyard activity as anticipated and modestly lower year-over-year term pricing. With respect to our tank barge fleet for both the inland and coastal businesses, we have provided a reconciliation of the changes during the second quarter, as well as projections for the full year. This is included in our earnings call presentation posted on our website.

At the end of the second quarter, the inland fleet had 1,134 barges, representing 25.2 million barrels of capacity and is expected to be slightly up in 2026. Coastal marine is expected to remain unchanged from the second quarter of 2026. Now I will review the performance of the Distribution and Services segment. Revenues for the second quarter of 2026 were $385 million, with operating income of $38 million and an operating margin of 10%. Compared to the second quarter of 2025, Distribution and Services segment revenues increased by $23 million or 6%, with operating income increasing by $3 million or 8%. This growth was primarily driven by continued strength in the power generation business and higher marine repair activity.

Compared to the first quarter of 2026, revenues increased by $39 million or 11%, and operating income increased by $15 million or 63%, reflecting improved activity levels, favorable mix, and stronger performance across several end markets. Moving through the segment in more detail, in power generation, we continue to see meaningful order activity for the behind the meter and backup power solutions for data centers and other industrial applications. This has supported continued growth in backlog. However, OEM engine availability continues to influence the pace at which demand converts to revenue. Overall, power generation revenues increased 8% year-over-year, with operating margins in the high single-digit range. Power generation represents approximately 40% of total segment revenues. In commercial and industrial, strong marine repair activity contributed to a 12% year-over-year increase in revenues and an 11% increase in operating income.

The business represented approximately 50% of segment revenues and generated operating margins in the low double-digit range. In oil and gas, activity improved sequentially during the quarter, driven by better demand for parts and services. Revenues increased 20% sequentially and operating income increased 67% sequentially, although results remained below prior year levels despite the modest improvement we have seen in market conditions from recent lows. Oil and gas represented approximately 10% of segment revenues and generated operating margins in the mid to high single-digit range. I'll move on to the balance sheet. As of quarter end, we had $39 million of cash on hand and total debt of $1.04 billion, with a debt to capitalization ratio of 23.1%. We ended the second quarter with $566 million of available liquidity. During the quarter, net cash provided by operating activities was $72.2 million and capital expenditures was $71.5 million.

The second quarter included elevated working capital requirements, primarily associated with stronger business activity and the timing of collections, as well as higher fuel rebuilds in our marine business. We expect these working capital requirements to normalize during the second half, supporting a meaningful improvement in free cash flow. With respect to capital expenditures, we continue to expect full-year capital spending to range between $220 million-$260 million. Approximately $170 million-$210 million is associated with marine maintenance capital, including improvements to existing inland and coastal marine equipment and facilities. Approximately $65 million is associated with growth capital spending across both businesses. For the full year, we remain on track to generate cash flow from operations of $575 million-$675 million. Our capital allocation strategy remains focused on maximizing long-term shareholder value, balancing disciplined investment in our businesses with consistent return of capital to shareholders.

In the second quarter of 2026, we returned $59.7 million to shareholders through share repurchases at an average price of $142. We have repurchased approximately $29 million of additional shares quarter to date in the third quarter at an average price of $140. These repurchases reflect our confidence in the long-term earnings power of the business and our view that at recent levels, share repurchases represent an attractive use of free cash flow. We continue to evaluate disciplined acquisition opportunities within our core businesses, particularly in marine, where we see the potential to enhance our service capabilities, drive fleet efficiency, and generate attractive long-term returns. Our balanced approach allows us to invest in high return opportunities across our portfolio while consistently returning capital to shareholders.

With that, I will now turn the call back to David to discuss our outlook for the second half of the year.

Thank you, Raj. As we look at the balance of the year, we remain encouraged by the direction of the business. Across our portfolio, we are seeing the continuation of many of the same tailwinds that supported our second quarter results, including healthy demand, solid asset utilization, and continued inland pricing improvement. While the broader operating environment remains dynamic, we believe our market-leading businesses and disciplined operating approach position us well for the second half of 2026. As a result, we have reaffirmed our full year earnings per share growth guidance of 5%-15% and currently expect results to trend toward the upper end of that range. Our confidence is supported by continued inland pricing momentum, the expected recovery of fuel cost timing impacts, healthy utilization across marine transportation, and improving second half conversion of power generation backlog as OEM engine availability improves.

In inland marine, we continue to see a favorable operating environment. Demand from refining and petrochemical customers remains healthy, supported by strong refinery utilization and steady petrochemical activity, while barge availability across the industry remains relatively tight and pricing momentum continues to build. With spot pricing continuing to lead term pricing, we believe the setup remains constructive as additional contracts renew through the balance of the year, particularly during the seasonally heavy fourth quarter renewal period. Together, these factors give us confidence in our outlook for the inland business. Overall, inland revenues are expected to grow in the mid- to high single-digit range with operating margin in the high teens to low 20% range for the full year. Although the fuel related headwind in the second quarter may make the upper end of that range difficult to achieve.

In coastal marine, underlying market conditions remain supportive with healthy customer demand and strong barge utilization. Overall, revenues are expected to increase in the mid-single-digit range for the full year, with operating margin in the mid- to high teens range, reflecting the impact of lower margins in the second quarter due to elevated shipyard activity and the market specific pricing dynamics for the 80,000-100,000 barrel portion of our fleet. In Distribution and Services, growth in power generation and strong marine repair activity are expected to continue driving segment results. In power generation, customer demand remains exceptionally strong, particularly for behind the meter power solutions, serving data centers and other industrial applications. While OEM engine availability continues to affect the timing of customer deliveries, our backlog and customer conversations continue to support a strong multi-year outlook.

Importantly, growth in behind the meter power applications also creates longer-term service and parts opportunities as our growing installed base begins to operate at higher utilization levels. Within commercial and industrial, marine repair demand is expected to remain healthy while on highway activity remains constrained. In oil and gas, activity is expected to remain subdued, but has modestly improved from recent lows. Overall, we expect segment revenues to increase in the mid-single digit range for the full year, with operating margins in the mid to high single digit range. To conclude, we delivered solid second quarter results and remain well positioned for the second half of the year. Marine transportation fundamentals remain favorable, supported by healthy demand, strong utilization, and improving inland pricing. In Distribution and Services, power generation continues to be a key growth driver, while commercial and industrial activity remains healthy.

Supported by our market-leading positions, enhanced service capabilities, fleet efficiency, and disciplined operating approach, we remain confident in our outlook and our ability to deliver toward the upper end of our full year earnings per share growth guidance. Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. Christian, Raj, and I are now ready to take questions.

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Jonathan Chappell of Evercore ISI. Your line is open. Thank you.

Good morning. Hey, good morning, John.

David, last quarter, you spoke to the potential for inland margins to exceed the last peak. Given what's been happening with the rate of change on both term and spot, what you're seeing from a demand perspective and also from a capacity add perspective, would you say that that still holds? If so, can you kind of help with your path on timing? Is that kind of a 12-18 month return to those types of levels, or is it more of a prolonged kind of steady move higher?

Yeah, it's the latter, John. Right now, supply and demand are in balance and tight. Nobody's really building any equipment. We're pursuing and getting slow, steady increases. You heard low to mid-single digit increases. It's going to take a while to get up to the past's peak in margins, which was about 28%. I absolutely believe we'll get there. It's slow and steady. As you heard in our prepared remarks, we're setting up for a good fourth quarter renewal season, that'll bode well for 2027. We just see that continuing. You'll recall we had the maintenance bubble that rolled off last year. Well, that maintenance bubble is going to start again in late 2027 and 2028. I think we're set up for a multi-year slow march up.

I would say this, new build economics are still 40% away, nobody really should be building equipment at these prices. It should be a good long 5-year march up. I don't know exactly when we'll hit peak margins, but it's set up for a good long run.

Awesome. That's great. Hate to ask about this, but have to. The Jones Act waiver, have you seen any impact either in coastal, I would imagine more on coastal than inland, from the waivers? I guess maybe more importantly, from some of your contacts in D.C., do you have a sense for if the waivers will continue to be extended? Obviously, the war headlines kind of change from day to day, just any sense as we approach mid-August, with the potential for another waiver extension, anything you're hearing on that?

Sure. There's been no impact at all in the inland side, just a tiny bit on the coastwide side. For us, we're pretty termed up, we don't even have much exposure. Christian can chime in on that. Some of the industry participants have seen it. The waiver, there's probably been 150 non-Jones Act moves, maybe a little more. The vast majority, 85-plus percent of those have been really nothing to do with national security or homeland resilience. It's really just been traders making profits. We don't think the waiver makes sense. We understand what the administration's trying to do, which is trying to help the consumer. Frankly, the Jones Act really doesn't add much cost at all, maybe a penny a gallon. It's not achieving what I think the waiver was intended, which was to help prices at the pump. It's a blanket waiver. That's what we don't like.

We support the administration, we think it should be a specific waiver. In other words, if Jones Act equipment's not available, then sure, use non-Jones Act equipment. We certainly don't want to stand in the way of supporting the administration's goals. The waiver was extended another 90 days to August 16th, I think is the last day of the waiver. Obviously, with the conflict in the Middle East and the Straits of Hormuz, the administration's considering extending the waiver. We're hopeful that if they do extend it will be a specific waiver. You could even see it being as specific as Gulf Coast to the West Coast, because the West Coast is where there may be a problem, if there is a problem. We'll see. The administration hasn't done anything yet. I know they're contemplating it.

Our view is if they do it should be a specific waiver, not a blanket waiver. We haven't really seen a big impact for Kirby. We have heard of a couple participants losing some contracts because of non-Jones Act equipment. So far it's benign. I don't know, Christian, if you want to tell them about our exposure.

I think secularly, Kirby's really been unaffected. Maybe some barrels on the edges, particularly in the offshore space. We're fully utilized at Kirby Offshore Marine, and David hit it on the head. There has been perhaps some ripples for some other competitors that are more exposed to the spot market, but we've been in a good spot. We remain in a good spot in our utility and our contract portfolio. The waiver does need to go away. If not, alone for the benefit of the hardworking American mariner and the hardworking workforce that supports the American mariners. What's going on here is just, while we understand the intentions in supporting the war effort, the effect of it is, I don't think, as advertised, and it's time for the waiver to end.

Dave and I have the pleasure of meeting with 50 captains here in the next day or so, and we got to look them in the face and explain this and explain why the administration's made this decision, and it's just very difficult on the workforce. We're out there recruiting and retaining and trying to motivate mariners, and they see their jobs being taken by foreign mariners, and it's just not fair. Time for it to end. I got a little political there, sorry, from a supply and demand perspective, we haven't really felt it. I think there are some competitors who have felt some pressure.

Yep. Makes sense. Thanks, Christian. Thanks, David. Yeah. Thanks, Jonathan.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ben Moore of Citi. Your line is open. Hi, good morning, David, Christian, Raj, and Matt.

Congrats on the beat and raise. Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to see if we could discern the drivers behind your raise towards the upper end. Can you maybe talk to rank and maybe kind of magnitude of the impact on your rates on the marine side from the Venezuela heavy crude imports perhaps stepping up further, Calcasieu Lock, maybe a higher impact than maybe what you thought before, crack spread widening maybe sustained longer even after an eventual end to the Iran war. Petrochem's exports, with you being a part of the inland supply chain. On the D&S side, any impact from trucking capacity exits driving trucking spot rates?

Yeah. Well, good morning, Ben. I'll start with marine and go to D&S, Christian can chime in here with some more specifics as well. Look, we're comfortable with the high end of the range. We didn't bring up the low end, because just the geopolitical dynamics out there could give us a curve ball that we haven't anticipated. But we feel very positive as we enter the second half, and many of the things you mentioned are the reasons. Venezuelan crude is up over 600,000 barrels a day from lows of 200,000. Calcasieu Lock is coming into play and Christian can give you some color on that. Crack spreads are pretty much at a record. Even our petrochemical customers are doing a little better. We're seeing good, solid demand in the inland space in particular.

Given that we're capacity-wise and nobody's really adding new capacity, rates are going up. They're slow and steady. These aren't big double-digit raises. These are low to mid-single-digit, which is what we're comfortable with. We're happy at those kind of price rises. They offset inflation a little bit. Inflation's been real, by the way. You hit on most of it. That is giving us a very solid backdrop in the inland side. It gives us a lot of comfort as we head into the second half. The very important fourth quarter renewal period, where about 40% of our term contracts renew, is setting up nice, and that sets up for 2027, for that year. D&S, very similar. We are seeing really healthy demand for behind-the-meter power systems, and we like that.

We're still getting standby diesel for backup, but the behind the meter has been the bulk of our inbound. That we like because behind the meter is going to run 24/7 to generate power, and there's going to be a very nice service component that starts to kick in in a few years once that equipment has seen a lot of duty cycles. We're excited that PowerGen is obviously a big part of why we're comfortable in the second half. In commercial and industrial, on highway, I'd say the trucking sector has bottomed finally, and we're starting to see a little sign of life there. Marine repair has been very solid. A lot of things going right right now, and we feel really good about it.

I don't know, Christian, if you want to dive into a little more detail about some of the crack spreads and Calcasieu and Venezuela.

Yeah, Ben, when I think about the four items you just referenced, I think about why PADD 3 refining and chemical manufacturing wins globally every quarter. Crack spreads, pet chem improving, Venezuelan crude imports, and the Calcasieu Lock. All of those things bake together to represent why PADD 3 and why servicing PADD 3 as a marine transportation vendor is important and profitable and has a lot of momentum right now. Crack spreads, I want to say they touched $169 a barrel, an all-time record high last week.

66. 69. Sorry, did I say 169?

Yeah. Maybe it'll get to 169.

We're all feeling bullish. Thank you for the correction there.

The Calcasieu Lock that you referenced, work continues on Calcasieu. It should wrap up September 18th. Calcasieu Lock closes every day from 7:00 A.M. to 7:00 P.M. It creates a small traffic jam on the Intracoastal Waterway, where there's a lot of traffic between Texas and Louisiana. Right now, they're working inside the gate. When they work inside the gate, it's a bit more disruptive. You have to have an assist boat to get through the lock. We'll see that increase here, but it'll wrap up hopefully in September. We're always battling something, whether it's weather or locks or ice or storms. Those types of delays are kind of par for the course in the industry, but Calcasieu is an issue today.

Yeah, I think you hit all those tailwinds well, and I think it's just all part of being blessed to work in PADD 3 like we do every day.

Great. Thanks so much for the great insights there. What is assumed for your buyback and other income as part of your guide?

Yeah. Well, you've seen we've continued to buy back our stock. We were fairly aggressive in the second quarter. We like the stock price where it's at, and we're happy to continue to buy it. You've heard Raj talk before that we like using our free cash flow to buy back stock when we don't have acquisitions. We're always looking for our acquisitions, particularly in our core businesses. In the absence of those, we're very happy to use our free cash flow. I would say this, free cash flow was a little lower in the second quarter than we expect. We still think our full year guidance on free cash flow is going to be there. What's happened is good. We've had a lot of working capital build, principally around receivables because business has been good.

Big portion of that is related to PowerGen receivables, and then we also have a lot of fuel rebuilds that have built up in the receivables. As that working capital frees up, we'll have more free cash flow, and we're happy to buy back our stock with our free cash flow. Now, that said, again, we always prefer to do an acquisition or two, and we'll take those as they come. They're hard to predict. In the absence of those, we're very excited to buy back shares. In terms of our guidance, we really don't include the benefits of the share buyback. As you know, it's an average for the year, so as you get into the second half, it matters less in terms of this year's earnings, but certainly matters for next year's earnings.

Great. Appreciate that. Last one from me. You've noted the supply side is still very favorable with very low new builds. A concern is that it could increase eventually with the strong, you mentioned maybe roughly five years of continued spot rate increases. What's the range of your age of fleet, if you could share that currently, versus historical average? At what age do you typically currently retire your fleet?

Yeah. There's two ways to look at this, both the barge and the boat side. Our average barge age is about 17, maybe 18 years old, somewhere in that ZIP code. We have 1,100 of them. That's on the inland side. They typically can run till about age 30. You can stretch it to 35, but it starts to make less sense from a maintenance upkeep standpoint. We're quite comfortable with the age of our fleet. You have the towboat side, which is also important. The towboats can go 35 years, roughly speaking. The average age of our towboat fleet has come down a lot from our purchases over the last three to five years. We're very comfortable with the age of our fleet.

I would say, from an industry standpoint, as I've mentioned before, pricing has to be 40% higher to justify new capital deployment. Christian can share what the actual number we think is in the shipyards. It doesn't make sense to build right now. I think we need those price rises for a number of years to get there. Christian can comment on the shipyard capacity as well.

Yeah. It's not an exact science, but we think we have line of sight of about 60 barges getting built this year. That represents pretty much replacement capacity for us and our competitors that are retiring equipment. Construction remains very much in balance with current capacity. David nailed it. The economics simply don't work to build a two-barge tow. A new boat, two new barges, you're still 40% below where you need to be to earn an adequate return. Also, shipyard capacity is somewhat reduced from the pre-COVID era when you saw a lot of construction. It's just expensive labor in the shipyard, and the price of steel itself remains highly elevated. A lot of these inflationary pressures that weigh on our transportation business, labor, paint, steel, electronics, those remain very high. We still face some pretty tough inflationary pressures.

The rates still have a way to go. I mean, 40% more before you really get to the economics that would justify a new build cycle in earnest.

Wonderful. I appreciate the time and insights, always.

Thanks. Thank you. Our next question comes from Bascome Majors of Seaport.

Your line is open. Thanks for taking my questions.

Dave, I know there's not much that you can say in specificity, but I was wondering if you could walk us through your thoughts on the high-level value creation for yourselves and shareholders from the D&S segment, including power generation. What's the long-term thought process on capitalizable earnings potential when you get to the point where the aftermarket's really starting to flow through in that business versus how do you balance that nearer term versus the ability or interest in something that's growing really heavily, along with any cash flow or tax leakage considerations on that side? Thank you. Yeah. Tough question, but good question, Bascome.

I appreciate it. Look, we always look at our portfolio and our capital deployment. Look, over the years, you've seen Kirby do a lot of acquisitions in the marine side, probably in the last, I think Christian and I have worked on 25 marine acquisitions in the last 10 to 15 years, and probably a dozen KDS acquisitions. We're always looking to add. Look, we've got two very different businesses here. At the board level, we talk about what makes sense. I would say what drives us and the board is shareholder value. If there's a way to increase shareholder value, we're going to do it. We're going to look at it. That said, we are very happy with our portfolio. The marine business is rock solid. The power gen business just continues to surprise to the upside from our expectations.

I think you hit on it. There is going to be a massive service annuity that's going to emerge from this installed base. I think you've heard us talk about our power gen installed base doubling in the next 18 months. That is absolutely going to happen when we look at our backlog and our deliveries. I'll use this opportunity to update our backlog. I think I said on the last call we were between $500 million and $1 billion, and I'd update it when we go through the top end, and we have. Our new backlog guidance is $1 billion-$1.5 billion. The good news is most of the inbound has been behind-the-meter power, which is what we like. If you think about the engine business, standby diesel, they're not really running.

They're sitting at data centers waiting for a blip in the power, and they don't run a lot. They're still service related to them, but it's not as much service as you get with natural gas recips that are running 24/7 to provide prime power. Those engines will run. They'll have a lot of what we call balance of plant equipment around them, which would be things like cooling systems, after-treatment systems, sound attenuation systems. They're all going to get duty cycles. In about four years, maybe five years, all of those engines that we're putting out in the behind-the-meter space will need some service. We're working hard, and I think Christian's got a project he should tell you about right now.

Yeah. When you look at the opportunity in the aftermarket, our data center and our power service customers are looking for turnkey solutions for uptime. Downtime is the absolute enemy. Chad Joost and his team are putting together an enhancement, an operation called Kirby Integrated Power Systems, which I'm very excited to announce on this call. We will be going after that aftermarket. We believe that the CapEx cycle is amazing. We're enjoying it now, but we think we can generate value exceeding the original product value in the aftermarket in the out years. When you look at the urgency of data centers, the uptime required for data centers, there's an outstanding service opportunity here. We do this every day. We're just enhancing it with some talented techs and a focused management team.

The job site for these techs will be the data center, and we're going to go after and get that aftermarket opportunity that you referenced on high-level value creation through the cycles. This is just one little piece of it that we're highly focused on.

Thank you both. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Scott Group of Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Hey, thanks.

Good morning. A couple things on pricing I wanted to ask. Where are we on spot relative to contract in inland right now? When do you think we start-- Do you think we can accelerate out of this low single-digit contract range? I guess I understand you had the Jones Act question earlier. All the stuff that you're talking about in terms of the Q2 issue with coastal pricing down, is this related to this Jones Act waiver, or is this a separate issue? I just want to understand exactly what's going on in coastal right now.

Yeah, let me take a coastal question right now. I think we've spoiled everybody with four years of continuous rate increases at coastal. Let me frame this up. What we talked about in the announcement is just the normal ebb and flow of negotiation. We had a couple units trade off their all-time highs. This is what happens. Fundamentally, the fleet remains in a great spot. We're fully utilized. This is not a Jones Act-associated issue on price pressure. This was just normal ebb and flow negotiation and a slight tick down from all-time highs ever earned while we've owned these 80s and the 100s.

Yeah. The other thing is you asked about spot versus contract. Spot rates are a good 10%-15% above contract right now. We like that. That's the way to head into the contract-heavy renewal in the second half. We're very constructive around that. I hear you about double-digit increases instead of single-digit increases. We're all for increases, but slow and steady kind of wins the race. We have very sophisticated customers. They know what kind of inflation head we have, and they know the supply and demand market. We like the slow and steady because it's easier to achieve. That doesn't mean we're not trying to push for higher price rises. It's just the market is the market. We are not unhappy with slow and steady.

Just follow up on coastal. What % of the market is this 80,000-100,000 market? I don't know, is this your view? Is this a temporary, we had a couple of things that sort of renewed down slightly, and this is sort of a blip?

Yeah, no. Is this sort of like, is coastal getting to a peak around this 20% margin, which we've really never been at before, so maybe we are peaking?

I don't know. I'm curious your thoughts.

I think when you break down the offshore fleet, you have different sizes, different classes. You have a class of equipment that's 150,000, 180,000, and we compete against MR tankers that are 330,000. All of those rate renewals this year have increased. We called out a very small subsection here, 20% of the market-ish. That is the 80 and the 100s. These trade and refined products. Many of them in the Northeast, that's a very competitive part of the world. There's been some supply dynamics changing with European imports that get moved around in the New York Harbor and up on the Northeast that impacted these particular trade lanes and these particular deals. I wouldn't read too much into these two renewals that we're talking about as far as the whole fleet. The rest of the fleet did enjoy rate increases year to date.

When we give rate increases, it's an average. Remember, it's an average. It's a simple average, not a weighted average. We actually did have a couple 80s that renewed higher. The simple average brought the 80s and 100s down a little bit. I think it's a temporary thing. Nobody's building capacity in the offshore side. Even if they started now, it'd be three years before any capacity is delivered. We're still very constructive about the long term for coastal. We don't like price declines, but this is kind of, as Christian described it, the ebb and flow of renewals after four years of up renewals.

If I can just ask Raj one quick one. We got the full year guide. Some years Q3 is higher than Q4, some years Q4 is higher than Q3. Any just thoughts on the cadence of the back half of the year?

Yeah, I know, Scott. I probably don't want to get into the quarterly flows here. Just what I'm going to say is the second half is looking really strong, right? With everything that's happening right now and the comments that David and Christian made, pricing should continue to go up. The supply dynamics are very favorable. If I could give you some color, I'll say Q3 is probably better than Q4. Overall, very excited as to what we're seeing in the second half of the year.

Thank you, guys. Appreciate the time.

Thanks, Scott. Thanks. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Gregory Lewis of BTIG. Your line is open. Yeah.

Hey, good morning, thanks for taking my question.

Morning, Greg. Hey. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the impact in the higher diesel prices and the fuel pass-throughs.

I guess just looking at diesel prices, they ripped 30% March into April. Just kind of curious, how should we be thinking about if we are going to be in a more volatile oil price market given, who knows? How should we think about the time lag of that and as we think about where we are now. Looking, is the New York diesel price a good proxy to be looking at as we try to understand this? Then, I don't know how much color you can provide, but kind of curious how much of a headwind that the higher fuel prices was the Q2 numbers.

Yeah. Greg, we did talk a little bit about it in the second quarter call. I think we said 5 to 10 cent- Yeah head to the second quarter, that's about what it was.

Probably on the higher end of that. We'll catch all that up in the third quarter or the fourth quarter, most of it in the third quarter. We work really hard to make fuel a pass-through. We don't want to make money on fuel. We don't want to lose money on fuel. Our customers, by and large, they trade in fuel. They're best able to absorb fluctuations of fuel. We work really hard with them on our contract escalation and de-escalation clauses to make sure we come in neutral. There is a lag. Some of them reset 30 days, some 60, some 90, and we have one or two that are longer than 90, which we should probably look at. We can get pencil whipped.

We buy it and then there's a lag and get reimbursed for it. By and large, we think we'll come out neutral on fuel this year. Third quarter's going to be a good third quarter, and part of that is the fuel coming back in and collecting that. I would not use New York fuel prices, though. Gulf Coast is where we buy the bulk of our fuel. It's been pretty sporty, as you said. We'll see what happens with the war and where fuel prices go. Just to keep reiterating it, we work hard to be neutral, and we don't want to make money on fuel. We don't want to lose money on fuel. In our history, we've actually gone back to customers and said, 'Hey, we need to adjust the fuel clause because we made a little money in fuel.' They get it.

They work with us, and we try and stay neutral. I know that's a long-winded answer to say that we're pretty neutral.

Sounds good. All right. Thanks for the time.

Thanks, Greg. Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter of Bank of America.

Your line is open. Good morning.

Kind of a big change of tone, I guess, in two directions on the call, right? The outlook seems to jump to the top this quarter, but it sounds like you're now talking about five years to get to peak at inland versus, I think what was expected to be maybe a faster move given the tight supply demand. Why do you think the changing thought process here, just given from quarter to quarter, it seems like this may be a longer lead time to get to those peaks?

Maybe some conservatism, but also the realization of what we saw last year, Ken. You saw us lose a little pricing even though we were in a supply-demand kind of balance situation. We got a little more conservative because last year was a bit of a surprise to us. Really what drove it was the lack of heavy crude into the Gulf Coast refineries, and it just hit us and spot pricing was down in the second half of last year. We got a little more conservative here. Could it go faster? For sure. We'd certainly be in favor of that, but slow and steady is also okay with us. A funny way to look at slow and steady for us, the free cash flow just continues to come in, and we use it to buy back stock. Slow and steady feels pretty good to us.

We do get the urgency to try and get margins up. I would tell you the change in tone is really driven by what we saw last year, and we don't think that'll repeat, but you never know, particularly given the global political and crude market dynamics right now. They're I don't want to say unpredictable, but certainly can get a curve ball thrown here or there.

Yeah, I don't think there's a management team across the nation that doesn't struggle with some of the geopolitical and administrative challenges.

Absolutely. Yeah. There's just more volatility, Ken, and when you try to get the crystal ball out.

Fundamentally, things are very, very good in all the businesses.

We're still fighting inflation. That continues to be an issue. You keep pushing price, but you're still fighting inflation.

Yeah. What's leading to the improving outlook, right?

If I'm hearing things are at peak at coastal and maybe rolling a bit. Margin pressure at inland, you got the fuel contracts are going slower than expected. I know this issue with the 80,000 to 100,000 barrel on the coast, am I right, in terms of seeing some of the all-time peaks going down. Where's the upside in confidence? By the way, power gen seems to be a big deceleration in growth this quarter, right, from 45 to single digits. What's giving you the confidence that the top of your target, given all those commentary?

Well, let me take each one of those, and Christian and I will tag team this. Certainly do not believe we are peaked out at margins on coastal. Gosh, I fully expect coastal margins to get north of 20% in the next couple of years. There is no equipment being built. It's a very tight market. There is some noise around the 80s and 100s. The 80s and 100 are probably the most commodity kind of area in coastal, so that's the one that has the most noise in it. Certainly believe strongly that coastal margins are going to continue marching up. Look at it from a year-over-year standpoint, and I fully expect coastal margins will go up next year. Inland is not decelerating. We got through the second half of last year. There was a little headwind there. If anything, I think inland's improving.

Certainly, the war helps a bit, but it's really more a supply-demand picture, and I don't see that changing in the near term, and I only see it improving in the longer term. Power gen look, the backlog grew a lot. We've got to ship to produce the revenue, and we will. You'll notice margins improved. We're working on margins. We are constrained by engine deliveries. I would tell you that the inbound is the key. That inbound continues to grow, and it's the right inbound. It's the behind-the-meter stuff that's going to have a service deal. Yeah, we're not dour at all. We're quite the opposite. We're very excited about what's in front of us.

Great. Thanks, Dave. Thanks, Ken.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Greg Wasikowski of Webber Research. Your line is open. Yeah.

Hey, guys. Good morning. How you doing?

Good morning. Hey, just a higher level one on inland.

I'm just curious your overall thoughts on efficiency gains in the market over the years, just from an asset performance perspective, overall technology, AI, whatever it is. I'm just curious, do you think that that's had a material impact on the net demand or impacted the rate of improvement that we've seen in spot and term markets? Maybe this is a contributing factor to Ken's question on the dichotomy between the sentiment improving, but the slope seems to be flattening. Maybe that's not a bad thing as you've outlined in the past, David, but I'm just curious on your overall thoughts there.

I'll go ahead and jump on this one, Greg. While we do see every customer trying to gain efficiency Using AI in various ways. One of the wonderful things about the Kirby value proposition is we bring that efficiency every day with our scale, with the diversity of the bottoms of our barges, with our line haul network, with our ability not to dedicate as much horsepower as our competitors. We deliver this efficiency and this value proposition every day. It is a big part of what we do, our geographic footprint, and just the depth of our relationships and the range of cargoes that we're capable of moving. You might think there's always optimization when you're running a refinery or a chemical plant. You are always optimizing, you're always messing with the inputs, looking at the right crude oil to run.

Barging is an essential part of sort of balancing the refineries and servicing the chemical plants. I don't think, in my opinion, we've seen any major reduction in the need for barges because we already are really, really highly efficient at Kirby. That is the value proposition that we deliver every day. Then when you get to sort of the technology side, Tier 4 engines are a little more fuel efficient than their ancestors. You see some efficiencies like that in technology. Electronics are better, safer. The industry as a whole is safer. There's some gains like that when it comes to technology.

Okay. Thanks, Christian. Another one, just going back to the maintenance schedule that you guys brought up a little bit. Can you give your thoughts on the other end of that, the redelivery schedule? I know we're getting out into the 2030s here, so it's a bit of crystal ball, but I think just this past redelivery cycle seemed to impact the market a little bit more than we were expecting, at least. Maybe that's just because it was combined with other factors, but with this next one coming up in a few years, the back half of the decade, just wanted to get your thoughts on that chunk versus what we saw last year.

Yeah. What you get into in the 2027, 2028 is barges that are five years older. The intensity of the work and the level of the U.S. Coast Guard major that you have to do is higher. You could see the barges will be in the shipyard for longer periods of time. They'll require more steel replacement. They'll require more paint. In theory, not knowing the subjective condition of everybody's barge that's going in, you should see a cycle where the length of the shipyard is increased, meaning more available days are consumed.

Yeah. Okay. I appreciate that color. All right, guys. Thanks for fitting me in. Appreciate it. Thanks, Greg. You bet, Greg.

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back to Matt Kerin for closing remarks.

Thank you, Dee Dee, and everyone on the call for participating in our call today. If you have any additional questions or comments, please feel free to contact me. Thank you, and have a good day.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.