Sensient Technology Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Call
Key Takeaways
- Sensient Technologies Corporation reported second quarter 2026 results with 10% local currency revenue growth, 21% local currency adjusted EBITDA growth, and 26% local currency adjusted EPS growth.
- The Color Group delivered 17.6% local currency revenue growth and 36.8% local currency operating profit growth, with a 28.3% adjusted EBITDA margin including a $4.3 million tariff refund.
- The Flavors and Extracts Group posted 3.8% local currency revenue growth and 6.1% local currency operating profit growth, with an 18.1% adjusted EBITDA margin.
- The Asia Pacific Group achieved 12.3% local currency revenue growth and 23.7% local currency operating profit growth, with a 24.4% adjusted EBITDA margin.
- Second quarter revenue was $462.1 million compared to $414.2 million in Q2 2025, and operating income was $76.7 million versus $57.7 million in the prior year period.
- The company received approximately $5 million in tariff refunds in Q2 2026, mostly in the Color Group, contributing about $0.09 to EPS.
- Cash flow from operations was $48 million and capital expenditures were $39 million in Q2 2026, with full-year capital expenditure guidance of $150 million to $170 million, trending toward the higher end.
- Net debt to credit adjusted EBITDA ratio was 2.3 times as of June 30, 2026.
- Management highlighted strong sales momentum in natural color conversions, with $25 million invoiced in Q2 2026 and a cumulative $45 million through the first half of the year.
- The company emphasized its long-term strategy to support a $1 billion sales target in natural colors, with ongoing investments in production capacity, supply chains, and product innovation.
Outlook
- Sensient expects the Color Group to deliver high teens local currency revenue growth for 2026, with natural color conversion sales building as the year progresses.
- The Flavors and Extracts Group anticipates mid-single digit local currency revenue growth for the full year 2026.
- The Asia Pacific Group is expected to deliver high single digit revenue growth for the full year.
- The company views the US natural color conversion as the largest opportunity in its history and sees additional conversion opportunities in Latin America, Southeast Asia, China, India, and personal care markets.
- Management believes that regulatory trends and consumer demand will continue to drive natural color conversions globally beyond the US.
- The company is confident in its supply chain and raw material sourcing to support the $1 billion natural color sales target despite potential weather or geopolitical risks.
Guidance
- For full-year 2026, Sensient now expects local currency revenue growth in the high single to low double digits.
- Local currency adjusted EBITDA and EPS growth are expected in the mid to high teens for 2026, upgraded from previous guidance of high single to double digit growth rates.
- Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to be between $150 million and $170 million, likely closer to $170 million, with approximately $250 million planned for natural color capital investments over the next few years.
- The company anticipates increased working capital requirements related to natural color conversions.
- Interest expense is expected to be approximately $9 million in Q3 and $9.5 million in Q4 2026.
- Adjusted tax rates for Q3 and Q4 2026 are expected to be approximately 25%.
- No significant share buybacks are planned in the near term, but the company will evaluate sensible acquisition opportunities.
Executive Comments
- Paul Manning emphasized the strong momentum in natural color conversions and the importance of matching synthetic color aesthetics to meet consumer expectations.
- He highlighted the technical challenges of natural color conversions, including taste and stability, and noted Sensient's unique integration of flavors and extracts to mask off-notes.
- Management described the natural color conversion pipeline as promising and expects increasing invoiced revenues in the second half of 2026.
- The company is investing heavily in production capacity, supply chain, and innovation to support the $1 billion natural color sales goal.
- Tobin Tornehl explained the reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results and detailed the impact of tariff refunds on margins and EPS.
- Management discussed the importance of mitigating supply chain risks through diversified sourcing, backup formulas, and inventory management.
- They noted that regulatory changes globally are favorable for natural color conversions and that the company is well positioned to capitalize on these trends.
- Executives addressed questions on margin expectations, confirming mid-20% EBITDA margins for the Color Group and high teens for the Flavors and Extracts Group for the full year.
- They acknowledged that the Color Group's better-than-expected revenue and new wins have overwhelmed incremental investment costs, supporting strong margin performance.
- Management views new competitors seriously but expects to compete vigorously and maintain leadership in natural colors.
Q&A
- Customers generally aim to maintain the same color aesthetic when converting from synthetic to natural colors across various product categories.
- Natural color conversions present technical challenges such as taste impact and stability, which Sensient addresses through its flavors and extracts segment providing taste masking solutions.
- The company invoiced approximately $25 million in natural color conversions in Q2 2026, adding to a cumulative $45 million in the first half, representing about a $100 million to $130 million annualized run rate.
- Management expects natural color conversion invoicing to increase in Q3 and Q4 2026, with continued growth into 2027 and 2028.
- The Color Group's adjusted EBITDA margin guidance is mid-20s percent for the full year, with quarter-to-quarter variability due to mix.
- The better-than-expected margin performance in Q2 was driven by stronger revenue and new wins rather than timing effects.
- Sensient does not anticipate significant changes in competition from recent industry transactions but will compete vigorously against all competitors.
- The global natural color conversion multiplier outside the Americas is estimated between 7 and 10 times, with Latin America and Asia expected to have strong conversion opportunities.
- Europe's natural color conversion occurred earlier with less advanced technology, and Sensient sees opportunities to upgrade color performance there.
- Working capital and supply chain investments are increasing to support natural color conversions, with diversified sourcing and contingency plans to mitigate risks from weather or geopolitical events.
- Regulatory trends and consumer demand globally are expected to drive continued natural color conversions beyond the US, including pet food, over-the-counter products, Latin America, and personal care markets.
Good morning, welcome to the Sensient Technologies Corporation 2026 second quarter earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone, and to withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note that today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Tobin Tornehl, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir. Good morning.
Welcome to Sensient's earnings call for the second quarter of 2026. I'm Tobin Tornehl, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Sensient Technologies Corporation. I'm joined today by Paul Manning, Sensient's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer. Earlier today, we released our 2026 second quarter results. A copy of the earnings release and the slides we'll be using during today's call are available on the investor relations section of our website at sensient.com. During our call today, we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, which remove the impact of currency movements, cost of the company's Portfolio Optimization Plan from our 2025 results, and other items as noted in the company's filings. We believe the removal of these items provides investors with additional information to evaluate the company's performance and improves the comparability of results between reporting periods.
This also reflects how management reviews and evaluates the company's operations and performance. Non-GAAP financial results should not be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for financial information calculated in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures is available on our press release and slides. We encourage investors to review these reconciliations in connection with the comments we make today. I'd also like to remind everyone that comments made during this call, including responses to your questions, may include forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ materially from those that rest or implied due to a wide range of factors, including those set forth in our SEC filings. We urge you to read Sensient's previous SEC filings, including our 10-K and our forthcoming 10-Q for a description of additional factors that could potentially impact our financial results.
Please keep these factors in mind when you analyze our comments today. We'll start on slide five of our deck. Now we'll hear from Paul.
Thanks, Tobin. Good morning, good afternoon. Earlier today, we reported our second quarter results. We delivered 10% local currency revenue growth, 21% local currency adjusted EBITDA growth, and 26% local currency adjusted EPS growth in the second quarter. These results continue to build on our strong first quarter results and are well above our earlier projections for the year. We continue to have outstanding results from the Color Group, which delivered a 17.6% local currency revenue growth and 36.8% local currency operating profit growth. The commercial activity around natural color conversions continues to be very strong and the momentum is building as customers approach their launch dates. Flavors & Extracts Group also had a solid quarter, delivering 3.8% local currency revenue growth and local currency operating profit growth of 6.1%.
The Asia Pacific Group contributed strongly with local currency revenue growth of 12.3% and local currency operating profit growth of 23.7%. Each of our groups has delivered strong results for the first half, and we expect even stronger results in the second half of the year. During the second quarter, we continued to generate strong new sales wins across each of our groups, and our sales pipelines continue to grow to support our revenue expectations. Our emphasis on sales execution, delivering exceptional customer service, and constant innovation continues to drive our performance. We are delivering very high win rates in natural colors, specifically natural color conversions. Our long-term strategy and preparations that position us to support our customers throughout this conversion process and achieve our $1 billion sales target.
Aside from natural colors, our robust and innovative product portfolios across our other food, personal care, and pharmaceutical product lines are enabling us to win across the globe. As I have stated before, despite a choppy macroeconomic environment and sluggish overall food market, we believe we are well-positioned to continue our sales momentum. As I have mentioned on previous calls, we made a strategic shift over 15 years ago in anticipation of the conversion of synthetic colors to natural colors in the U.S. and beyond. We are seeing strong conversion activity and newly converted natural color products are already hitting the shelves in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. I will reaffirm what I have said previously. The U.S. conversion to natural colors is the single largest opportunity in Sensient's history.
We are aggressively pursuing the commercial opportunities while also executing on our considerable investments in our production capacity, supply chains, and product innovations to support us for our $1 billion sales goal. Turning to slide six in our group results. The Color Group had excellent second quarter results, delivering 17.6% local currency revenue growth and 36.8% local currency operating profit growth. The group's second quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 28.3%, up 320 basis points compared to prior year.
This included approximately $4.3 million from one-time tariff refunds, which contributed 200 basis points to the group's adjusted EBITDA margin. Excluding the tariff refund, the group's adjusted EBITDA margin would have been 26.3%. Without the tariff refund, the group still had an outstanding quarter and continued our increased investments in support of the natural color conversion opportunity. The group continues to sell technically differentiated products, control its costs, execute pricing, and most importantly, deliver quality new wins. We are seeing acceleration in customer orders for conversions of the synthetically colored products in the U.S. Alongside these conversions, the vast majority of new product launches throughout the world continue to utilize natural colors. I can reaffirm that the pipeline to our $1 billion sales goal looks very promising.
We approach the second half of the year and now expect the Color Group to deliver local currency revenue growth in the high teens for 2026, with natural color conversion sales building as the year progresses. During the second quarter, the Color Group invoiced approximately $25 million of natural color conversion revenue. This $25 million is in addition to the $20 million of revenue that we cumulatively invoiced through the end of Q1. I also expect that the EBITDA margins of the Color Group in Q3 will be similar to prior year's Q3 EBITDA margin of 24.7%. Overall, the Color Group is progressing very nicely in 2026 and remains on a great sales trajectory. Turning to slide seven. Flavors & Extracts Group saw local currency revenue growth in the second quarter of 3.8% and increased local currency operating profit by 6.1%.
The agricultural ingredients business in particular had nice volume growth in the quarter. The group's adjusted EBITDA margin was 18.1%, up 30 basis points versus the prior year's comparable quarter. The results align with our expectations for the second quarter. The group continues to optimize its costs and focus on new and defensible flavor wins, and these factors have fueled the favorable profit leverage. Overall, for the Flavors & Extracts Group, we expect local currency revenue growth of mid-single digits for the year. Turning to slide eight. The Asia Pacific Group had a very strong quarter, delivering 12.3% local currency revenue growth and 23.7% local currency operating profit growth. The group's adjusted EBITDA margin was 24.4%, up 210 basis points versus the prior year's second quarter.
Overall, the Asia Pacific Group got off to a substantially faster start than we anticipated in the first half and is set up nicely for the rest of the year. The Asia Pacific Group continues to generate strong new sales wins across all geographies. Expect the group to deliver high single-digit revenue growth for the full year. Turning to slide nine. Regarding our full year guidance, we expect our local currency revenue to be up high single to low double digits. Based on our strong start to the year, we now expect local currency adjusted EBITDA and EPS growth in the mid to high teens for the year. Our previous guidance called for high single to double-digit growth rates.
On the capital allocation front, we previously communicated expectations for consolidated capital expenditures in 2026 of between $150 million-$170 million to ensure that we are prepared for the forthcoming natural color conversion activity. I would anticipate we still land within that range, but trending toward the top end. Continue to expect to spend around $250 million for natural color capital over the next few years. We also continue to anticipate an increase in our natural color working capital requirements. We are full steam ahead on this multi-year plan to add the necessary capacity and allow for further growth in the future. Beyond capital expenditures, we will evaluate sensible acquisition opportunities, but we do not anticipate any share buybacks in the near term.
Before I turn the call over to Tobin, I'd like to provide some information on two of our more innovative natural color technology platforms shown on slide 10. Provide a little background. Mexico, like the U.S., recently announced an official ban on Red 3. Brands will have until mid-2028 to replace Red 3 with alternative solutions. As we have discussed, the U.S. ban goes into effect in January of 2027 for food, beverage, and pet products, with a slightly later date of January 2028 for pharmaceuticals. Our technical teams have been working with our customers to convert their products. This slide depicts some of our most successful technologies to enable this conversion. First, Uber Beet is our stable and concentrated beet platform designed for pink bakery items that undergo heat processing. This technology offers benefits to mitigate taste impact and potential bakery rise issues.
Secondly, our Microfine technology excels in pink icings, fat-based coatings, and frostings, which mitigates the bleeding of color into the baked good item. Lastly, Watermelon-Rose is an ultra-high temperature stable vegetable-based technology that delivers vivid pink shades that work well in the harsh temperatures used to make strawberry milks and high acid juices. Marine Blue Azure is a natural color innovation which solves many heat stability challenges with standard spirulina-based blue solutions. This technology is especially effective in confection applications such as gummies, hard-boiled candy, and fruit snacks, along with gelatin. As I've said before, the key to a successful natural color conversion for food and beverage brands is to maintain the variety and vibrancy in colors that consumers are used to seeing in their favorite products. To that end, the vast majority of our customers are striving to match their existing synthetic shade through their development.
At this point, we observe very few instances where customers are electing to remove color or use less color. Our R&D efforts continue to be focused on removing performance gaps that exist between synthetic and natural colors. If you'd like more information on any of the natural color technologies, please visit our website. Overall, I'm pleased with our financial performance in the second quarter. I'm excited about the growth opportunities within each of our groups. I'm looking forward to the continued progression towards our natural sales target. The growth we're experiencing is a result of our execution of our long-term strategy. Since 2019, the company's local currency adjusted revenue compounded annual growth rate is approximately 6%. I remain optimistic about 2026 and the future of our business. Tobin will now provide you with additional details on the second quarter results.
Thank you, Paul. In my comments this morning, I'll be explaining the differences between our GAAP results and our non-GAAP or adjusted results. The adjusted results for 2025 remove the cost of the Portfolio Optimization Plan. While we do not have any Portfolio Optimization Plan costs in our 2026 second quarter results, we believe that the removal of these prior year costs produces a clear comparative picture of the company's performance for investors. This also reflects how management reviews the company's operation and performance. Now turning to slide 12. Sensient's revenue was $462.1 million in the second quarter of 2026, compared to $414.2 million in last year's second quarter. Operating income was $76.7 million in the second quarter of 2026, compared to $57.7 million in the comparable period last year.
Operating income in the second quarter of 2025 included $3.3 million or approximately $0.06 per share of Portfolio Optimization Plan costs. Excluding the cost of the Portfolio Optimization Plan in the prior year, adjusted operating income was 23.4% in local currency in the second quarter of 2026, compared to $61 million in the prior year period. Interest expense was $8.2 million in the second quarter of 2026, up from $7.4 million in the second quarter of 2025. The company's consolidated adjusted tax rate was 25.1% in the second quarter of 2026, compared to 25.2% in the comparable period of 2025. Local currency adjusted EBITDA was up 20.9% in the second quarter of 2026. Foreign currency translation increased EPS by approximately $0.02 in the second quarter of 2026.
The company received approximately $5 million of tariff refunds in the second quarter, most of which was in the Color Group, as Paul mentioned. No additional refunds of any significance are expected in future periods. This refund resulted in approximately $0.09 benefit to EPS and improved Color Group and Flavors & Extracts Group operating profit by $4.3 million and $500,000 respectively. Turning to slide 13. Cash flow from operations was $48 million in the second quarter of 2026. Capital expenditures were $39 million in the second quarter of 2026. As Paul indicated, we continued and anticipate our capital expenditures to be between $150 million and $170 million for the full year, likely closer to the $170 million. Our net debt to credit adjusted EBITDA is 2.3 times as of June 30th, 2026.
As we communicated last quarter, we also expect higher investments in inventory throughout the year to support the increased natural color conversion revenue. That is expected to increase further with our leverage ratio entering the mid to upper twos later in the year. Overall, our balance sheet remains well-positioned to support our capital expenditures, sensible acquisition opportunities, and our longstanding dividend. As Paul indicated, we'll continue to invest in our natural color production capabilities and capacity. These investments will remain elevated for the next few years, and we expect to drive favorable volume and profit growth for years to come. We maintain our goal of pushing our ROIC to the mid-teens over the next few years as we look ahead to peak natural color conversion activity. We will evaluate sensible acquisition opportunities and where there is a strategic advantage on the technology supply chain or geography front.
As we stated last quarter, we are constantly monitoring the situation in the Middle East, and although we do not have any significant operations in this region, we are working to mitigate any potential supply chain risks that may result from the overall increase in fuel, transportation, and certain commodity prices. We have already adjusted prices where necessary to minimize our financial impact and will continue to try to avoid any major disruptions to our customers. Turning to slide 14. Revisiting our 2026 guidance, we now expect our local currency revenue to be up high single to low double digits. Based on our strong results halfway through the year, we now expect local currency adjusted EBITDA and EPS to grow at a mid to high teen growth rates. Our previous guidance called for high single digits to double-digit local currency adjusted growth.
We expect our third quarter interest expense to be approximately $9 million and our fourth quarter interest expense to be around $9.5 million. We expect our third and fourth quarter adjusted tax rates to be approximately 25%. Based on current exchange rates, we expect the impact of currency on EPS to be immaterial in both the third and fourth quarters. As we explained, we do not expect any further benefit from the tariff refunds in the second half of the year. With that in mind, we expect EBITDA margins for the Color Group in Asia Pacific Group to be in the mid-twenties and EBITDA margins for the Flavors & Extracts Group will be in the high teens for the year. We'll now open the call up for questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Today's first question comes from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird. Please go ahead. Yeah, thanks, operator.
Good morning, everybody, and congrats on all the progress.
Hey, Ghansham. Morning, Paul. Morning.
First off, on the conversion between synthetic to natural, it sounds like customers generally intend to maintain the same color aesthetic. If you can just give us some sense as to whether that's true across the various product categories that are converting based on what you're seeing now. Just given that natural color conversion has some technical challenges, including potentially influencing taste, because you obviously use a lot more volume, et cetera. How are customers managing through that, and is your Flavors & Extracts Group also participating in that reformulation activity?
Yeah. I would tell you in general, customers are very keen to match the synthetic color in the food product. For example, you have a drink or a piece of candy, a snack, pretty much pretty well across the board. Colors are utilized in a lot of different ways, from marketing standpoint to linking the consumer expectation to a flavor. Maintaining the color, you talk to any CPG, I think that's pretty evident to them that you have to really maintain your color. If you don't, then interestingly enough, you get a lot of complaints about your flavors, which obviously haven't changed, but because the color changed, the consumer believes the flavor has also changed. This is more of a psychological outcome than anything else. Of course, if you use a substandard looking color, that impacts the consumer's preference for your product as well.
I think while some brands might have experimented with this years ago, perhaps Europe when they did their conversion 15+ years ago, there were fewer technologies available to really get those kind of great matches. The technology has advanced so considerably, even over the last 5 years, that by and large, we can get an exact match or a really excellent looking vibrant color in just about any application. There are always exceptions, but I would tell you that those are more at the margins than anything else. I can't think of, off the top of my head, any customer that you have heard of or anybody else has heard of that is specifically deciding to make their product use less color to save on money or to some other complexity.
I genuinely would tell you that customers really want to match this, and they want to match it really well. To your second point about the technical challenges, they are considerable. Light, heat, acid conditions, these are all things that impact color considerably. Shelf life can impact natural color considerably. You raise a very good point. When you're using that much natural color, these colors can oftentimes react with other ingredients in the product, the finished product, and they could also create unusual tastes and smells in the finished product. We have a very strong link with our Flavors Group, where flavors, they've pioneered a series of taste masking platforms specific to disguising natural color off-notes.
To my knowledge, I'm not aware of any other flavor company that emphasizes this and has built that into their portfolio in the same way that we have. Why would they? They don't have a Color business like we do. Flavors is becoming more and more a critical part of the formulation exercise with color and with our consumers to ensure that when they get these products, you don't notice anything except a great looking color with a beautiful label and possibly a declaration on the front, something to the effect of not using synthetic colors anymore. It's really come together very nicely.
Thanks for that. Relative to that billion-dollar opportunity set, if you will, where did you exit 2Q? I think you said $25 million incremental relative to the cumulative $20 million. Is it sort of mid-$40 million in terms of the exit run rate? How are you thinking about that build up into the back half of the year? You have some large customers that are looking to convert early part of next year as well.
That's right. Your numbers are right. We were about $20 million cumulatively coming into this quarter. We invoiced another $25 million. Just for everybody's clarity. Well, we distinguish between invoice and projections.
These are amounts we actually invoice. For example, in Q2, we invoiced $25 million. One could project from that a substantially higher amount of revenue derived from those activities. I would tell you that approximately $25 million, I feel really good about that. That's a nice step up from Q1. We're still by some accounts in sort of the earlier innings of this conversion program. I would fully expect that this continues to grow as we enter into Q3 and Q4. Many of our customers are driving towards a January 1st, 2027 conversion deadline. Whether that's stemming from the Walmart expectation of that date or a series of school lunch programs that are obligating products to be naturally colored in the school system by January 1st, 2027. Those are two big factors.
I would tell you another big factor as the year progresses is there's plenty of companies that are working towards more of a January 1st, 2028 deadline, but they're not waiting till Q4 of next year to launch all those. They have a very systematic launch plan where they're going to launch products each quarter between now and that January 1st, 2028. I think all those things start coming together more and more as we get into the back half. I would fully expect these invoiced values to rise in Q3 and to rise again in Q4, and then, of course, to continue as we get into 2028.
Okay. Very good. Thank you.
Okay. Thanks, Gonsom. Thank you.
Our next question today comes from Josh Spector at UBS. Please go ahead. Yeah. Hey, good morning, guys.
Hey, Josh. If I could follow up on Gonsom's question, actually, just specifically thinking about the second half.
If I take away some of the stuff you just said there, it sounds like you expect the invoice natural colors to increase through the second half. We pretty easily get to that natural colors organic probably up in like the low to maybe high 20s year-over-year in the second half, which kind of puts the segment easily 20%+. You said high teens, which could mean that there's no acceleration. Just want to see if I'm thinking about the cadence there right and maybe the magnitude of second half growth or if there's anything else we should be considering.
I think, listen, we give guidance to give folks a frame of reference. We never want to disappoint in that guidance, I think you're seeing us raising once again this quarter. I think the second half is going to be very, very strong for colors on natural colors conversions, number one. Remember, the base business of colors is still growing. That $25 million of invoice, that's for natural color conversions, but there's actually also other natural color launches that continue, and we continue to have very strong win rates in that part of the market. There are some customers in other parts of the world that are still buying synthetic colors. Obviously, large parts of LATAM and Asia-Pacific are far less converted than certainly Europe and certainly where the U.S. is going to be. There is that business that's still growing.
We still have PTSM growing very, very nicely this year as well. We're really doing well. Let me not exclude my pharma brothers and sisters out there, too. They're also having an outstanding quarter, and a lot of that's being driven by natural color conversions also. I think that the message I'd like to give you is that the pace and the momentum continues to build on the natural color conversions, and it continues to be very, very strong in the balance of the business as well. Second half is going to be a really, really great half, and we feel quite good about that. If it's high teens, then maybe it's 20. Yeah, sure. It could be your figure. I just don't want to disappoint you, Josh.
That's very well understood. I do want to keep this kind of medium-term focus, I suppose, and just thinking about margins. If I back out the tariff impact, you gave that number, you were 26%+ EBITDA margins. My math is that incremental is around 31%-32%. It seems like your guide, you're going back to saying the incremental is more like 25%. Is there a reason for that? Why was 2Q better? Why would 3Q see the incremental step down?
It all comes down to mix. I think our guidance here on mid-20s, I think we feel very, very confident with that. Could there be a quarter where it's 26, 27? Sure. Could there be a quarter where it's 24? Sure. Again, a lot of that is just driven by mix, not necessarily mix stemming exclusively from natural color conversions or natural colors. It could be another segment of the business. I think I would leave you with this thought. We feel very solidly committed to the mid-20s EBITDA margin. If Q3 comes in at 25, I wouldn't see that as a disappointment. I would just see it as more of a function of mix than really anything else. I wouldn't get terribly concerned with that. Could it come in at 26 again? Sure. I think 25 is we want to give you a number you can really kind of take to the bank, so to speak.
Sounds good. I appreciate it. I'll pass it on. Okay.
Thanks, Josh. Thank you. Our next question today comes from Larry Solow with CJS Securities.
Please go ahead. Great. Good morning, gentlemen.
Hey, Larry. Morning. I guess, just to ask the question another way.
The $25 million invoiced this quarter, ±, is it safe to say you're at about $100 million annual run rate?
Yeah, I think your math is probably not too far off. Typically, in a normal state of affairs, maybe this would be helpful for folks to hear my perspective on this. When a customer, a CPG or otherwise, launches a product, let's just say they're going to launch a new drink and it's got color in it, natural color in it, or synthetic, whatever, but natural. In a normal state of affairs, let's say we project that to be a $1 million opportunity for Sensient. We're going to be able to generate $1 million of annualized revenue.
Right. Typically, we would get anywhere between 20%-30% of that in the first PO.
Let's just say he wants to launch January 1st. He has this inkling that it's going to be a great launch. He wants to launch right on New Year's, get this thing ramped up for when the Jets are in the Super Bowl and get everybody excited.
There you go. Yeah, first PO, it may be $300,000 for that first PO.
It could be $200,000. They may assess, how is this doing? Am I loading my channels as I had expected and anticipated? Once you get past that first half, then you typically get to a state of affairs where it's more than likely about 25% per quarter. You're generally speaking, that's right, $25 million would typically represent about $100 million in projected revenue for these products in normal cases. Now, the natural color conversion can add a little wrinkle here, because the difference between the natural color conversion and the new launch is the conversion is replacing products that are synthetically colored that are on the shelves today.
He may not order 30% in his first PO. He may order 10%. As he brings in the next batch of products, putting the naturally colored ones in the back, make sure the consumers buy all the synthetic ones first, and then they eventually have a full shelf conversion, so to speak. That's changing that ratio a little bit, which is to say the $25 million could be understating, and it could be above that $100 million. It could be like $130 million or so.
Right. I would tell you, it's not going to be less than a $100 million type projection, would be how I would describe that.
It's this shifting on the shelves that is creating a little bit of noise and making the normal projections of a launch a little bit trickier to assess. This is why we like giving you folks the invoiced figure. We'll keep giving you that each quarter, and I think that'll give you a sense of the progression of the launches.
No, I appreciate that granularity. It's not like the customer's ordering more than a quarter's worth. You're at least, let's just say $100 million, but in theory, you're probably at a greater than $100 million run rate today. You think this number by the end of 2028 or early 2029 could be $250 million a quarter, right? That's basically what you're saying.
Yeah. To get to the $1 billion, that's about right. In a normal state of affairs, yeah. Of course, there's seasonality. There's more beverage in this part of the year, there's more ice cream in that part of the year. Yeah, at the macro level, you're about right in your thinking there.
Right. Just directionally on the margins. Just excluding the tariffs impact, obviously, you had a nice significant jump up this quarter. Maybe some of that was timing or whatever. I think when we started the year, we thought there was going to be, for a first two, three quarters compression in the Color Group segment because you're investing ahead of revenue. The revenue has been a little bit better than expected, but not crazy better than expected. Your margin profile has been a lot better than we thought. Is there anything else? Is it perhaps timing of some of those expenses? You mentioned mix, but was mix within Color Group even better? I'm just trying to parse out anything that kind of drove that difference.
Yeah. The short answer, Larry, is we're actually doing a lot better on revenue and wins than I thought.
Okay. For example, I'm looking at my Q2 performance sheet, Larry.
You'd love to see this thing. We were up substantially in the U.S., and we were up substantially above our budget. Why is that? Because we got more wins earlier than we expected. We got really nice mix of new wins. I think that is what has essentially made those incremental costs, those investments that you referred to there, more technical folks, commercial engineers, all these folks we've added ahead of this program. Yeah, we were able to really overwhelm those costs with just new wins and revenue to a greater degree than we had anticipated.
Okay. That's fair. It's not really a timing thing. The drop back in Q3, again, ex the tariff benefit, sounds like there's maybe a little bit of air of conservatism in there, but it's not that expenses are necessarily accelerating relative to Q2.
No, I don't think so.
Okay. For 2025 and 2026, I guess I don't feel like it's as dramatic as it seems.
Sure. Yeah. If it was 2026 going to 2019, yeah, there's something wrong here.
I think that, again, we want to be able to deliver on those figures, and I don't necessarily know what the mix is. Hey, maybe I'll have some better news than I thought in Q3.
Got you. Last question from Paul, for you, Paul. On the IFF, I know that they sold, I guess, their food ingredients already earlier this year. They just announced that they're selling their functional and natural color stuff to SwanNutra, I guess. I'm just curious, does IFF compete with you at all in natural colors? Does maybe the change to SwanNutra, which hasn't happened yet, so maybe hard for you to say. I don't know if you know of SwanNutra, but is that a potential future more of a competitor now on that color side? Any thoughts on that? Well, I think that business that was sold, I don't think it was a particularly large natural color business.
Yeah. They say $170 million total revenue. I think it may be more functional stuff than natural colors. Yeah, I don't know what it is.
Yeah. I believe the natural color piece was a smaller fraction of that.
Right. I don't think it was necessarily as broad of a range of products.
I believe that it was fairly heavy in things like carmine and annatto.
Okay on a different part of the market than we traditionally play in.
Okay. As you know, we've got a number of competitors in this space.
We take them all very seriously, but I want to beat them all very seriously. Yeah, we look at all new competitors, and I think about how I'm going to outcompete with those new competitors. I don't necessarily anticipate a substantial change under new ownership. A competitor is a competitor from my standpoint, and we will compete rigorously against them.
The commentary from SwanNutra, though, was interesting that I guess the CEO or the Chairman came out with something saying that with the industry shifting more towards clinically supported ingredients versus generally regarded as safe. I don't know, is he thinking that there'll be more regulation, and maybe does that impact colors and sometimes more regulation? In this case, could be a mixed bag. Any thoughts on that? Well, regulations tend to be really good for our business because they create- Right technical complexities and formulations for our customers.
Maybe the reference there was, okay, the U.S. is moving in this direction through a combination of regulations, but really- Right and consumer demand.
Europe was there principally through legislation, but I think the rest of the world is moving. It's similar to the U.S. with a combination of principally consumer demand in this area, but also a series of legislative actions that outlaw various synthetic colors. There have been countries in Southeast Asia which attempted to outlaw certain synthetic colors like synthetic lakes. These things can be really, really beneficial. It would be great if the governments of Latin America and Asia all got together and outlawed synthetic colors. I would love nothing more, Larry, because then that would be the next wave of conversions for us. I think in general, that is going to be the next wave of conversions for us as those countries and markets continue to replicate some of the products in Europe and the U.S. That's going to be a strong undercurrent.
A lot of folks are looking at this U.S. conversion and they think, "Well, after that, well, Sensient just goes back to mid-single digits." Yeah, I don't think so. I think the next wave is going to be pet food in the U.S. I think you're going to see some movements in over-the-counter in the U.S. You're going to definitely see more activity in Latin America, which is maybe 1/3 naturally colored today, 2/3 synthetic, so a big market. Highly colored food in LatAm in general. Ditto for Southeast Asia, China, India. These are markets that still use a considerable amount of synthetic color, and these would be beautiful conversion opportunities. Of course, as you've heard me say before, personal care is also another area of the market that can be a ripe ground for natural color conversions.
A lot more technical challenges than on the food side of things. There again, another beautiful potential follow-on opportunity to stack on top of this U.S. conversion for us. This is a good time to be in this company, Larry.
Got it. All right, great. I appreciate all that detail. Thanks, Paul. Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star then one.
Our next question comes from Nicola Tang at BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Hi, everyone.
Hey, Nicola. Hey. I thought I'd actually follow up where you left off in terms of talking about the global opportunity.
I think I also saw that Nestlé has extended their commitment to their global portfolio, not just U.S. as well, by the end of 2026, which seems, I guess, an ambitious target. I wanted to try and put some numbers around this. I think you have around $100 million of revenue in synthetic colors outside of the U.S., or outside of Americas. In a scenario where we see momentum conversion outside of the Americas, any reason why that conversion multiplier would be any different from the eight to 10 average that we're talking about on the Americas side? That's the first question. Yeah.
It's a good question. I think, based on our experiences thus far, we've typically used 10 times as our ratio. As you get to certain parts of the world, it may be a lower. Maybe our experience in Brazil would be on the lower end of that conversion. Maybe it's five to six times to one. LATAM, though, I think would be as strong as the U.S. on that conversion ratio. Again, you go down to LATAM, the products are beautiful, Nicola. I don't know if you've been to Mexico into a food store, but it's just beautiful. Everything is colored, brightly colored. Yeah, you would expect particularly high ratios there. China and India, I think you'd be probably in that eight to 10 range as well. Again, some of the products may be more weakly colored, which could lend themselves to lower ratios.
I guess I'd have to kind of look at the whole landscape to give you a more definitive answer. I would tell you that, typically, in the highly colored markets, which is most of the ones I've referenced, eight to 10 is a really good number to use, maybe even more like 10. Where you see more lightly, it's gonna be lower than that. The blended average, I don't know, anywhere between seven and 10, but I could get back to you about a more definitive answer on that one.
Just for reference, what's the ratio in Europe, which obviously is already quite converted already?
Well, Europe is a different matter. I would tell you a couple of things. Back in 2008, 2009 when that took place, there wasn't nearly as much technology that was available. The conversion was expected in a very short timeframe. In my opinion, most of the customers, the folks selling products in Europe kind of had to move very quickly and had to move with what was available. What was available, I would tell you, is not nearly as effective and performance driven as what is available today. In fact, interestingly enough, we see more and more wins in Europe where we've upgraded customers' colors. How do we now bring in some of the newer technologies that make your product look substantially better or enable you to produce them substantially more efficiently in your production plant?
Europe is in need of some upgrading on some of the colors, I would tell you, in my opinion. Certainly that forms parts of our pipeline today because, yeah, it was a very different experience than what you're seeing now and what you'll see in the future, I think.
Okay, thanks. Then maybe, I know it's been asked a few times around margins, but in the colors business. I was wondering, given what you said about better than expected kind of momentum in terms of wins, but that we're still very much at the early innings of this potential conversion opportunity. Surely as we go forward, wouldn't the operating leverage improve from where we are? Therefore I guess my question is, what's your view or do you have a new view on kind of midterm margins, EBITDA margins for the colors business?
Maybe for the sake of variety, I'll pass this one off to Tobin. You all can hear his thoughts on this topic.
Paul was kind of talking about it before, but overall, I think, the mid-20s for the Color Group for the full year is what we feel good about. Think around 25%. That can change quarter-to-quarter. This last quarter, excluding the tariffs, they were 26% change, so really healthy. Paul talked about the investments that we continue to make. People, we're investing in SG&A people across our Color Group, and that's been occurring. Our next round of investments will be in production and cost of goods sold, as more revenue comes. Overall, I think mid-20s we feel really good about. As Paul indicated, could that be 26% on a quarter? Could it be 24% on a quarter? Sure. Overall, I would say, I would think mid-20s, for the Color Group and then also for our Asia Pacific Group.
Our Flavor Group, coming back to them, I think, the high-teens, that is definitely where we're kind of modeling them for the year. That's how we kind of look at the margins. Hopefully that helps Nicola. Yeah, sure.
Thank you. Then maybe a final one around, you mentioned that the sort of working capital around sort of serving naturals will increase. I know we've talked in the past about risk of, I guess, bottlenecks upstream in terms of getting access to raw materials. Can you just talk us through what's happening upstream and also, how we should think about, I guess, weather events and kind of other kind of risks to raw material supply? Thanks. Our plan is built around having enough raw materials to achieve our $1 billion target and then, of course, retain that $1 billion and grow that too.
We've been doing this supply chain thing going on almost 20 years now, this is really nothing new for us. Our program is really about to continuing to expand growing regions, continuing to expand relationships that you have. The number of growers who are entering this market, and processors, these folks are making investments too. I'm not the only one seeing what's going on here. I feel really good about our footprint. Is our raw material footprint sufficient right now to affect the entire change? Does the natural color conversion change? I'd say we feel really, really good. There are always the weather events, to your point.
We anticipate that there will be routinely some kind of weather event, political event, whatever you may think about. My goal is to never talk about, ever, on a call like this, a supply chain problem, because we will have mitigated that either through holding working capital on some of these more problematic raw materials, having backup alternative formulas, which is an interesting concept, right? That can help you moderate a lot of the supply chain risk. Just having lots of growers in both hemispheres. We're having continuous harvest. In some part of the world, we're harvesting. There's a lot of ways that we have, and we will continue to mitigate these risks, because you're absolutely right.
If you think you're just going to get this one raw material from this one guy in this one country, that's great, right up to the part where somebody takes over that part of the country. You're not getting anything. We are particularly paranoid about this part of the business, but we've got a lot of experience here, too, and we've done an awful lot to mitigate that, and we continue to do that day in and day out in this company. We have an entire organization singularly dedicated to this activity. As technologies emerge, maybe we won't be so dependent on a supply chain as it exists today in this format. In short, we're going to get to our billion, I would tell you that raw material and the supply chain is going to be part of why we get to the billion.
We do a lot of thinking on this, we've done a lot of mitigation activity. I feel really good. I can't speak about the rest of the market, but I can speak very, very strongly about our billion.
Okay. That sounds pretty reassuring. Thank you. Okay, thanks. Thank you.
That concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to the company for any closing remarks.
Okay, thank you. That concludes our call today. Thank you, everyone, for participating, and if you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to contact the company. Have a great weekend. Thank you, sir.
This does conclude our conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
