UDR, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call

Greetings. Welcome to UDR second quarter 2026 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Vice President of Investor Relations, Trent Trujillo. Thank you, Mr. Trujillo. You may begin.

Thank you, welcome to UDR's quarterly financial results conference call. Our press release and supplemental disclosure package were distributed yesterday afternoon and posted to the investor relations section of our website, ir.udr.com. In the supplement, we have reconciled all non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure in accordance with Regulation G requirements. Statements made during this call which are not historical, may constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe the expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, we can give no assurance that our expectations will be met. A discussion of risks and risk factors are detailed in our press release and included in our filings with the SEC. We do not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements.

When we get to the question and answer portion, to be respectful of everyone's time and in an attempt to complete our call within one hour, we will limit questions to one per analyst. We kindly ask that you rejoin the queue if you have a follow-up question or additional items to discuss. Management will be available after the call to address any questions that did not get answered during the Q&A session today. I will now turn over the call to UDR's Chairman, President, and CEO, Tom Toomey.

Thank you, Trent, welcome to UDR's second quarter 2026 conference call. Presenting on the call with me today are Chief Operating Officer Mike Lacey, Chief Financial Officer Dave Bragg, and Senior Officer Chris Van Ens, who will be available during the Q&A portion of the call. To begin, the fundamentals of the apartment industry have been favorable in 2026. Specifically, employment growth has exceeded consensus expectations. Housing affordability remains in favor of renting relative to homeownership. New supply of apartment homes continues to abate. This backdrop, combined with our execution across operations and capital allocation, produced second quarter results that exceeded our expectations. In turn, this led us to raise our full year same store growth and FFOA per share guidance. Operationally, we performed exceptionally well. The apartment industry is strengthening, but what differentiates UDR is our data-driven capabilities, continuous innovation, and disciplined execution.

Mike will elaborate on our operating strategies and tactics employed to generate results that delivered more cash to our bottom line. As it relates to capital allocation, we follow a data-driven approach to risk-adjusted returns when determining sources and uses of capital, which we visualize through a heat map. This process led us to sell assets with proceeds used to repurchase our shares at sizable discounts to NAV. Furthermore, as our tools for evaluating risk-adjusted returns have advanced, we have made the strategic decision to let our debt and preferred equity book run off in the coming years. Our focus on operational excellence and data-driven approach to identify investments with outsized growth led us to this choice. UDR is an industry leader operator, not a lender, and we do not plan to reenter the debt and preferred equity business.

Dave will further discuss this and our capital allocation activities in his remarks. Moving on, later this week, UDR will distribute its first monthly dividend. Our history of delivering nearly $9 billion of dividends over 54 years demonstrates UDR's track record of stability, growth, transparency, liquidity, and robust results. As we shared last quarter, our research indicated an opportunity to diversify our investor base by appealing to a growing segment of the market that values frequent cash flow distributions. Since announcing our shift to a monthly dividend, we have extensively engaged with a number of new capital channels and have received positive feedback. Finally, I'm happy to report that UDR has recently named a top workplace winner in the real estate industry for the third consecutive year.

This achievement extends our track record as a leader in corporate stewardship and reflects the engaging employee experience we have built while solidifying our stature as an employer of choice. This is further evidenced by our associate turnover rate at only 19%, which is substantially better than the industry norm of 34%. In conclusion, we're pleased with our results in the first half of the year, which has set us up for a better than expected 2026. We are focused on excellence across operations, capital allocation, and access to capital.

This constant pursuit is underpinned by our innovative culture and approach to data. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike.

Thanks, Tom. Today I'll cover our second quarter same-store results, our increased full year 2026 same-store growth guidance, including underlying assumptions and recent operating trends, as well as our strategic position. The second quarter exceeded our outlook as we leveraged real-time data to drive total revenue and cash flow growth. Specific to the quarter, year-over-year same-store revenue growth of 1.8% was driven by the following. Blended lease rate growth of 2.1%, which accelerated by 50 basis points compared to the first quarter results and exceeded the high end of our 1.5%-2% range. Year-over-year innovation income growth in the mid-single digit range, which continued to bolster our results. Healthy occupancy that remained in the mid-96% range, and a 60 basis point contribution from improved delinquency, reflective of our focus on attracting and retaining high-quality residents.

Resident retention of 60% marked an all-time seasonal high and was 140 basis points better than the prior year. This not only supported occupancy and improved bad debt, but also led to constrained same-store expense growth of only 2.6%. This demonstrates the value we created by delivering a high-quality customer experience, as well as the scalability of our platform, as evidenced by our industry-leading efficiency of 43 apartment homes managed per associate. Based on our year-to-date results, we raised our full year 2026 same-store growth guidance in conjunction with yesterday's release. Starting with same-store revenue growth, we raised our midpoint by 12.5 basis points, resulting in a new range of 0.75%-2%. The increased midpoint is entirely driven by blended lease rate growth, with first half performance of 1.9%, exceeding our midpoint expectations of 1.75% as the spring and summer leasing season is elongated compared to our original expectations.

We continue to expect blended lease rate growth for the second half of the year will be between 1.5% and 2%, which means blended lease rate growth does not need to accelerate versus the first half for us to achieve our revenue growth guidance. In the event second half blended lease rate growth exceeds our expectations, that benefit would mostly accrue to 2027, since we have already completed the majority of our 2026 leasing activity. Beyond blended rent growth, we expect to operate with occupancy in the mid-96% range for the rest of the year and generate mid-single digit growth from innovation income. Moving on to same-store expenses, we improved our full year midpoint by 50 basis points to 3.25%. This was driven by constrained growth across repairs and maintenance, real estate taxes, and insurance.

Combining the improvements to both our revenue and expense growth guidance, we increased our same-store NOI growth guidance by 50 basis points. Turning to regional performance, second quarter results were led by our coastal markets, which delivered blended lease rate growth of 3.8% on average as compared to negative 2% blends in the Sun Belt. More specifically, on the West Coast, San Francisco remains a standout market with the strongest revenue growth across our portfolio, driven by blended lease rate growth of approximately 13% and occupancy in the high 97% range. Orange County also delivered attractive results with blended lease rate growth of more than 3%. The East Coast was led by New York and Philadelphia, with mid-single digit blended lease rate growth and mid-97% occupancy in each market.

Dallas remained our strongest Sun Belt market, while Austin showed the best momentum in blended lease rate growth coupled with 97% occupancy. Beyond market influences, we continued to differentiate ourselves from the peers by enhancing our revenue growth with services and amenities desired by our residents. To conclude, we delivered second quarter results that exceeded our expectations and drove our full year guidance raise. Our team's ability to leverage real-time data continues to bear fruit, and early third quarter results are tracking similar to the second quarter. Demand for our high-quality apartments is outpacing supply, and our ability to tactically adjust operating strategies tailored to each asset is a testament to the exceptional caliber of our teams across the country. We will continue to innovate, improve resident satisfaction, and expand operating margin while positively impacting the communities we serve. I will now turn over the call to Dave.

Thank you, Mike. The topics I will cover today include our second quarter financial results and third quarter guidance, recent transactions and capital markets activity, a balance sheet and a liquidity update. To begin, second quarter FFOA per share of $0.64 achieved the high end of our guidance range and exceeded consensus. The $0.02 per share increase versus the first quarter was driven primarily by higher NOI. As year to date results have exceeded our initial midpoint expectations, we have raised full year 2026 FFOA guidance by $0.01 per share at the midpoint to $2.53. Looking ahead to the third quarter, our FFOA per share guidance range is $0.63-$0.65. The $0.64 midpoint contemplates the operating environment that Mike discussed. Next, capital allocation. Our perspective on the risk adjusted returns on sources and uses of capital, as reflected in our capital allocation heat map, continues to guide our strategy.

For much of the second quarter, our stock traded at an unusually wide discount to private market apartment asset pricing. This allowed us to take advantage of the public versus private market arbitrage opportunity to sell assets and repurchase our shares. Our data focused and collaborative process, which includes our Orion Analytics platform, as well as our perspective on operating upside potential and CapEx, yields disposition assets that offer inferior cash flow growth prospects in the remaining portfolio. The process of selling assets and repurchasing shares enhances long-term cash flow per share growth. The discount on our stock narrowed, we stayed nimble and turned our attention to select development and opportunistic acquisitions.

We executed the following transactional and capital markets activity during the second quarter and thus far in the third quarter. First, we completed the sale of one apartment community and are under contract to sell three more. Estimated gross proceeds from these four dispositions total approximately $295 million and would result in 2026 disposition activity of approximately $650 million at a mid 5% buyer cap rate on average. We selected these assets for sale based on property-level characteristics with a focus on three criteria. One, the outlook for rent growth per our proprietary analytical tool, named Orion. Two, CapEx requirements. Three, potential operational upside or lack thereof. This group of assets screens inferior to our retained portfolio on these metrics. Next, on share buybacks. We recently expanded our share repurchase program to approximately 30 million shares.

During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 5.5 million shares for $200 million at an average price of $36.49 per share. This brings total repurchase activity since September of 2025 to 11.5 million shares for approximately $420 million at an average price of $36.34 per share, which equates to a mid-6% implied cap rate. We commenced development on a 385-apartment home community in Northern Virginia. This is a phase 2 development located adjacent to an existing UDR apartment community, which enhances efficiencies and therefore the stabilized yield we expect to achieve. Sticking with development, our team also continues to impress on 3099 Iowa, our ground up development in Riverside, California, which is now two quarters ahead of schedule for initial occupancy and 5% under budget.

For both developments, we expect to achieve a mid-6% stabilized yield. We opportunistically acquired two communities in Portland and one in Los Angeles through our debt and preferred equity program. Thinking about these assets as a three property portfolio, it screens well on our primary investment criteria, namely our Orion Analytics platform signal for rent growth, CapEx, and operating upside potential once transitioned to the UDR platform. Additionally, by adding more than 500 units in Portland, we do enhance our operating efficiencies in that market. We're pleased to have formed a new joint venture with Carmel Partners, who acquired MetLife's 50% interest in our Columbus Square assemblage in N.Y. UDR's economic interest and fee structure in the joint venture did not change. With the transaction, we funded a $50 million mezzanine loan to Carmel.

This loan is unique in that we have been and will continue to be the operator of Columbus Square. The contractual return will be paid current in cash. Considering our year-to-date activity, we have updated our full year capital sources and uses guidance. Included in this outlook is our expectation that the size of our debt and preferred equity portfolio will continue to decline from $380 million at the end of the second quarter to approximately $250 million-$300 million at year-end due to successful repayments, opportunities to gain control of assets, and our disciplined underwriting where other capital uses offer superior risk-adjusted returns and growth. As Tom touched on, UDR has better tools today than it did more than a decade ago when we entered the debt and preferred equity business.

Our focus on operational excellence and our data-driven approach to investing underpinned by Orion increasingly allows us to find and execute on investments with outsized upside. The returns on our debt and preferred equity or DPE business are capped. Upon consideration of these dynamics, we have made the strategic decision to let our DPE balance run off over the next several years as maturities occur and/or we gain access to assets for which we see upside potential. Going forward, as successful paybacks occur and/or we gain control of assets that we like out of the book, we think about the impact of deploying into alternative investments such as acquisitions or redevelopment as having an approximately 400 basis points lower yield than DPE. This results in initial dilution of about $0.01 per share for each $100 million not redeployed into the DPE business.

Over the long term, this impact narrows due to the growth we will see from these investments relative to the capped returns on DPE. In all, our capital allocation and balance sheet management strategies remain nimble as market conditions warrant. What does not change is our emphasis on data-driven decisions that drive long-term cash flow per share accretion. Our investment-grade balance sheet remains highly liquid and fully capable of funding our capital needs with nearly $1 billion of liquidity. With that, I will open up the call for Q&A. Operator? Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad.

A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question is from Eric Wolfe with Citi. Please proceed. Hey, thanks for taking my question.

There's been some questions and discussion from investors about UDR potentially being involved with AVB and EQR, I think just based on some of the details in the merger proxy. I assume you don't want to comment on that specifically, but I was hoping to understand the process you go through and the board goes through to gauge whether something strategic might make sense and sort of how that overlays with how you think the business will change going forward.

Hey, Eric, I appreciate the question, and we received the same number. What I'd start off with is I'm not going to respond to the speculation, okay? What I am going to focus on, and what the board and management team is on our strategy and acting in the best interest of our shareholders. We'll always weigh the options that are presented to us, in front of us, and also what we are capable of executing. We're excited about what our strategy points to, which is operational excellence, capital allocation, as well as access to capital. We think our strategy, as laid out, has great potential. We're excited about it, and we'll continue to execute on it.

Thank you. Our next question is from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

Please proceed. Yeah, thanks. I was wondering maybe, Mike, if you could provide just some July, maybe August, September trends in terms of renewal notices that you sent out.

I looked back at my notes from May read, and I thought you had maybe talked about a mid-fours kind of renewal. Maybe just kind of update us on kind of where you're trending on that and anything around new lease growth in July would be helpful. Thanks. Yeah, of course, Steve.

Appreciate the question. I'd say first and foremost, we're very pleased with our second quarter results and the continuation of that relatively strong leasing season that we've been talking about. Turning to current trends, specifically around your question on July and August, what I would tell you is it looks a lot like the last couple of months. What I'm seeing today is occupancy in the mid-96s, a sustained level of blends currently at the top end of our second half range. As a reminder, that's 1.5%-2%. We're seeing continued progress on lower turnover, better cost controls as we move forward. I think it's important to maybe give you a few observations on what we're seeing around some of our regions. I'd tell you our coastal markets, as a reminder, make up 75% of our NOI.

We had blended rent growth of 3.8% during the quarter. What I'm seeing in July is very similar. Again, sustained blends. In the Sun Belt markets, where we have 25% of our NOI, as we previously discussed, we saw a little bit of pricing weakness during the second quarter. That turned into about negative 2% that we experienced. Right now, I'd tell you month to date in July, it's a little bit better. I'm seeing a little bit more momentum there. I'm seeing around one, call it negative 1.5% versus that negative 2%. Again, slightly better, but we're feeling good about where we're progressing, and again, it's more of an elongated season. Specific to your question around renewals, we are still sending out between call it 5%-5.5%. We're still negotiating around 100 basis points.

My expectation for the third quarter is we're probably going to see around ±4% moving forward. Still feel good about that. As it relates to new lease growth, what I would tell you, market rents today feel pretty good. When I look at market rents over the next, call it four to five months, just thinking about kind of normal seasonality, if you will. That trajectory we typically see on a sequential month-over-month basis I expect we'll probably continue to see blends around that 2% range specific to new leases.

You're probably looking at flat, I think in all regions, we could see flat new lease growth through September, which again, is a little bit more elongated than we originally thought when we came into the year.

Great. Thanks for the color.

Our next question is from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. Please proceed. Great. Thanks for taking the question.

I guess you keep reporting in many of your periods this historically high retention rate. As we're thinking about the back half of the year, I appreciate all the color you just provided on renewals and outlook. How should we think about where the cycle is now versus historic seasonality and historic operating conditions? As it does seem like the supply pipeline's kind of working its way through the system, just maybe some bigger picture context of what you think 2027 and the next couple of years should look like, given what the industry's gone through the last several.

Hey, Jamie, it's Mike. I'll start and see if anybody else wants to jump in. I think for this one, it's good to give a little context. Historically speaking, we would typically see around 50%-51% turnover. When I quote that's more of a 2010-2019 timeframe. Since then, we've really put a lot of focus, and we've talked a lot about the customer experience and where we've leaned in to try to drive our turnover down. Last year, we hovered around 38%-39% turnover, so significantly different. Going into the year, we expected it to be roughly flat. I'll tell you right now, it's probably trending to about 150-200 basis points better, around that 37%-38% range.

Significantly different than where we've been, I think it's important to talk a little bit about some of the things that make UDR different, how we compare to some of our peers. When you look at our turnover, we're outpacing them by about 400-500 basis points over the last couple of years. That has everything to do with the work that we've done with the customer, understanding that lifetime value versus transactional approach, utilizing the millions of data elements every day to have those conversations with individuals and change that trajectory. That's led us to some pretty significant results. What we're more excited about what's coming next. When we think about kind of that phase 3, if you will, it's more around the rent roll quality, where we're going to take this.

We still think that there's gas left in this tank, and we're going to continue to lean in to not only drive our turnover down, but we're also looking for opportunities to bring our pricing up. I think you've seen that when I quote things like our blends in the coast being at 3.8% versus some of the other coastal peers that have recently reported. We have strong growth coming out of those areas. In addition to that, the teams have really started to lean into some best practices, things that are really working for us, things that we believe will continue to drive turnover down, and again, increase our renewals. Aside from that, we've created about 40,000 touchpoints with our existing resident base. That's making a difference. I'd tell you one other thing I'd point to is our reviews.

When you look at four and five-star reviews, we're up 50% on a year-over-year basis. Really starting to make a difference on what you see when you go out to our websites. Again, it's creating reduced turnover, lower bad debt, you've seen that in our numbers, better pricing power across new and renewals, and we think it's going to provide us a more effective marketing avenue as we go forward. A lot of excitement here.

Hey, Jamie, this is Dave. I would also just provide a broader historical perspective for the industry that tells us that subject to the economic landscape, higher turnover can be a good thing. If we look back to, say, the middle of the 2000s, turnover was around 55% at that time, with very high rates of move-out to buy. Apartment revenue growth was in the mid-single digit range, thank you to great job growth at that time.

Jamie, you're catching the trifecta. I think all of us want to weigh in on such a nice open-ended question. My characterization would be along the following. One, 50-year record high supply, a good stable economy, competing product not affordable. The runway for the housing rental market looks very solid. You think about what our business is driven off of is job growth and supply, and then how we operate. On the things that we control, thematically, you could see that we have invested heavily and built tools around data to cash flow conversion. Mike's highlighted, Dave as well, is fundamentals around how we price the product and how we invest our capital. I think just the refinement of those leads to excellence around operation, excellence around capital allocation, and then that will garner a better cost of capital for us in the long run.

We're excited about the overall, I would say, simplicity of a strategy, more importantly, the execution around it and the foundation that we've built. I think we're well set up. I really appreciate the question. Really want to dig into it more and got to get moving on to the next question.

Thank you very much. Really appreciate all the color.

Our next question is from Nicholas Yulico with Scotiabank. Please proceed. Thanks. Hi, everyone.

Dave, I just wanted to go back to your commentary on the DPE book and the likely wind down there and the earnings impact. I think you said it's about a $0.01 dilution for each $100 million not redeployed into DPE. Is it right then to think about there's like a cumulative $0.04 annual impact to FFO that could hit at some point? I guess from a timing standpoint, you have two years left to maturity on those investments. How should we think about that timing impact? Then also, is there any difference between taking back assets, versus getting redeemed at par and redeploying into new investments that would change that math? Thanks. Nick, thank you for the question.

To start, let's frame the journey that we've been on over the last year. The DPE book balance has shrunk from a peak of about $725 million in the first quarter of last year, to about $380 million at the end of the second quarter this year. That's for three reasons. The market has become increasingly competitive, and we've remained quite disciplined. Also, we've enjoyed successful paybacks. Third, we've been able to get a hold of some assets that we're really excited about. What we seek to do is really enhance our focus on investments where we will see upside. We have a focus on operational excellence and also a data-driven approach to investing that's underpinned by Orion. That allows us to find opportunities that don't just produce a yield today, but one that grows over time.

By contrast, the returns on DPE are capped. We're excited to narrow that capital allocation focus and play for a higher quality and ultimately, better growing stream of earnings over time. To make that transition, it does require us to get from here to there and to put some parameters around it for you. First, I would touch on 2026. Because we're not in a position to provide guidance on future years, but I can frame the size of it. 2026, we're going from an average balance of about $550 million, that was last year, to an average balance in the $300 million-$350 million range this year.

That couple hundred million dollar difference, at that spread that I mentioned of 3-400 basis points, depending on what we're redeploying into, such as buybacks, has been a big focus this year or potentially redevelopment, that would result in about $0.01 per 100 million. We've contemplated that already in our guidance for 2026 to pass from $380 at the end of the second quarter to the range of $250 million-$300 million. That's in guidance. As we go forward, we think about the book, having maturities that are staggered pretty equally over the course of 2027 through 2031. The size of the book, for 2026 is about $0.10 per share. You could think about over the next several years, 2027 through 2031, the maturities occurring over that time to take us down.

That's a near term impact, because you're redeploying into assets that didn't have growth. That earnings impact mitigates over time as we grow into our new investments.

Our next question is from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed. Thanks. Good morning, everybody.

Mike, wanted to go back and touch on the Sun Belt trends a bit, including your comments about the momentum in Austin and Dallas being one of the strongest markets across the region. You really saw minimal new lease rate growth within those regions, even deceleration in the Southwest. I was just hoping you could expand on the underlying kind of market trends and whether you think that the lower turnover is actually elongating the pressure on new lease rate growth across the Sun Belt.

Yeah, great question, Austin. I think specific to some of the markets within the region, I can give you a little bit of color, maybe starting with Dallas, because on an absolute basis, when you look at blends and occupancy, it's still our best performing down there. Given that it's 9% of our NOI, it's an important market for us. Today, what I'm seeing is about 97% occupancy there. Blend's still in that plus or minus -1% range. Still feeling some of the pressure of supply there. I would tell you there's some notable things that are driving some of the demand that I think are important to note. A couple of them. Public Storage moved their headquarters to Frisco. We have a couple thousand units in and around that area, and they can support up to 1,000 employees.

We're seeing a little bit of a benefit there. We see Samsung moving their headquarters to Plano. That's supporting about 1,000 employees, so that's beneficial to us. Then also, AT&T's headquarters will be located close to about 2,000 homes as well. There's some strong dynamics coming out of the demand side in Dallas that we are looking forward to taking advantage of. Moving down to Florida. Florida's about 10% of our NOI split between Orlando and Tampa. What I would tell you there is experiencing some momentum in both areas. Running around 97% occupancy today compared to 96% during the first quarter. I'm seeing blends here around -1.5%, which is a bit of a change from what we experienced during the last quarter where we were between, call it, -2.5% to -3%.

Strong momentum there. Maybe one other one, Nashville, only 2.5% of our NOI, so it's a relatively small market for us. Occupancy's in that 95.5% range, which it's mainly due to a building that's down. We have some down units there. It's causing a little friction on our occupancy. Blends are still in the -2% to -3% range, so we are still seeing some pressure from supply in different parts of Nashville. What's promising is some of the major employers continue to expand their presence in Nashville, and specifically the key anchors such as Amazon's towers down in the Nashville Yards. We've got Oracle's $1.2 billion campus, and the revitalization surrounding the new Nissan stadium is really driving some demand too.

Again, if we can get through some of the supply pressures in these markets, which we're starting to see, we do think that there will be some uptick in some of our market rents as well as renewal growth as we go forward.

Mike, did you want to tie back to the earlier comment and question on DPE and dilution about growth?

Yeah, absolutely. Give some color around what we mean by growth.

Happy to. First and foremost, whenever we can get our hands on these properties and start to manage them, we can definitely see a difference. Maybe to Tom's point, I can give a little bit of color on some examples. First and foremost, when you think about a place like San Francisco, everybody knows very strong growth there. What's been interesting to see for us, you have a place like Oakland, and that's where we had one of these DPE deals that we took over. That's been our best performing asset in that market. When you think about San Francisco, we had 8% revenue growth. We had 14% growth at that deal in Oakland, and a lot of that's being driven by the rents that we're achieving there, which we're seeing around 20% versus 13% across the rest of the MSA.

Strong performance coming out of there. Maybe another example is just Philadelphia. We've got a deal down in Center City, Philadelphia. We're seeing around 8% growth down in Center City today compared to the market in general being around 4%. That's just on the top line, some of the results that we're seeing coming out of this book, and there's significant savings as it relates to cost controls too. They're performing well today. Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

Please proceed. Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question.

I am here with Amy Proban. It definitely looks like it has been much more like a normalized peak leasing season this year. What do you think has changed from the perspective of demand that is driving that? Thanks. I think there is a few things.

Maybe I can highlight some of the stats things that we watch as leading indicators. One of the big things I would say is just some of the migration patterns. When you think about individuals that are leaving the MSA, what we are seeing today is it is around 19%, which is down from 23% last year. Not necessarily as many people leaving the MSA. As it relates to people coming into our portfolio, it is rather similar. Right around 26% of our move-ins today, it was 27% last year. That has been pretty consistent. I think some of the other things that jump off the page to me is no doubling up. We are still not seeing people double up. It is still around 1.8 residents per home.

We still have low rent-to-income ratios across our portfolio, still in that 21% range, that has been beneficial. I think in addition to that, we have lower cancels and denials today than we did a year prior. We are hovering back in that 35%-37% range. Previously, that was just above 40%. A little bit more stickier. People are taking those applications and they are moving in. It feels like it has just been a little bit stronger than we would have expected. I think I highlighted it is definitely more pronounced in some of those coastal markets today than maybe the Sun Belt, but it is nice to see some momentum as we go into July here in some of those markets as well.

Michael, Amy, I appreciate the question. This to me. With respect to the biggest difference, I think it is supply and the way it is getting priced. We are looking at it and seeing what people are sending out for renewals, how much is coming online. The abatement of supply has helped us a lot to lengthen the leasing season. The backdrop of that is a solid employment picture across a lot of our markets supporting it. With that dynamic, you can see how it sets up for a better 2027. We will not be facing that element of supply that we have had to deal with in the past. With some luck, a robust job market continues.

Thank you very much. Good luck in the back half.

Our next question is from Julian Boulin with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed. Yeah, thank you for taking my question.

Mike, I just want to double-click on some of those comments around new lease. I think I heard you mention that you think new lease could be flat through September. I think that would imply about a 60 basis points acceleration versus the second quarter. I was just looking over the last few years, it seems like we saw over 200 basis points of sequential deceleration in new lease into 3Q in those years. I just guess, how much visibility and confidence do you have at this point on new lease sort of bucking that trend this year? What sort of feels different?

The thing that I typically point to, and one of the leading indicators that I find to be most beneficial, is our 30-day trend. Today, when we're running closer to 96%, it does give us confidence that we can continue to try to test the waters as it relates to market rents. I'm looking 30 days out. I've got a pretty good idea of where July and August are going to shake out. That gives me confidence that we're going to continue to see a similar trend today. I think we still do have some of the dynamics of market rents coming off pretty significantly in some areas last year, especially through the back half of the year. There may be some opportunity to anniversary off of that, but we're just not banking on it yet.

I'm mainly going off of what's happening today, what's that sequential line item look like in terms of market rents, where's our occupancy and where do we have the opportunity to push. Right now it feels good. It feels like that ±0% on new lease is achievable. If we can get that to that 4%-4.5% achieved renewals, you're still in that top end of our 1.5%-2% range that we're looking at for the back half of the year. If we can beat that, we're going to take advantage of it. I do think a lot of that will accrue to 2027 versus 2026, but we are looking to try to optimize as much as possible and drive as much cash flow as we can.

Great. Thank you. That's really helpful.

Our next question is from Anthony Paolone with J.P. Morgan. Hold on. Please proceed.

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. You have now come on for Tony today. Maybe switching gears a little bit, could you guys speak to the new JV with Carmel? It sounds like it came about in a unique way from MetLife selling their stake in Columbus Square. Is there any room or appetite for you or your partner to maybe expand this venture or if there's any more room to expand maybe some of your other ventures with LaSalle, maybe as you guys wind down the DPE book. Thank you. Yeah, appreciate the question.

This is Tony. With regards to Carmel, exceptional, if not best in class, type A developer who has an exhaustive and experienced track record around New York in particular. What drew us to them as a partner is as we look at the Upper West Side and our data from our resident profile and the supply picture, there's going to be a gap in a higher price point product. They have experience in both installing that and attracting the residents that fit that profile. We see the IRR on this substantially improving with their help and their experience. Like any other company, you think you're good, know what you're good at, and when you think you can add other talent to the mix, certainly look at it.

I think Carmel represents a great partner for us on this deal, and we're excited to see both our investments rewarded for that. As it relates to any expansion beyond that, yeah, certainly there's always a dialogue around us trying to optimize the value out of every asset and how does it fit. I think with our data, we're digging through a lot of those opportunities and see similar type circumstances with assets where we can partner with capital, who can enhance the returns beyond our current scope. We'll see how that plays out over time. We're excited about Columbus Square and our joint venture with them, and we'll weigh in the future how that might expand on an opportunistic type one-off basis.

Our next question is from Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed. Yeah. Hey, everybody.

Thanks for the question. Dave, you talked in your prepared remarks about taking advantage of the public-private arbitrage during the quarter, but then shifting to development and acquisitions as that discount narrowed. Can you just talk about the relative attractiveness of the repurchase versus other capital uses as we sit here today at the current share price?

Sure, Brad. Thanks for the question. As you noted, buybacks have been a top priority. $300 million repurchase year-to-date on top of about $120 million in the final four months of last year. This is the most in UDR's history around an episode of dislocation between public and private market values. As it relates to future buybacks, we have not and will not provide guidance on buybacks, but we'll just point to that track record, including the average purchase price around what we measure to be a 20% discount to NAV. It remains prominent in the capital allocation playbook. At the same time, we remain mindful, given the dispositions that we've executed on tax gain capacity, as well as some other opportunities that pop up at times.

Okay. Thank you. Our next question is from Jana Galan with Bank of America.

Please proceed. Thank you. Congrats on a great quarter.

Mike, really appreciate the detail on your major markets. Can you comment on Greater D.C., how your communities are performing following the DOGE disruptions last year, and then the decision to expand exposure there with the development in Northern Virginia?

Oh, yeah, of course. I think first, just to size it a little bit, D.C. is about 16% of our NOI. We are diversified across Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. To your point, we have seen demand a little bit weaker in that MSA with occupancy dropping right around 95 to slightly below that in the MSA in general, due to federal employment across the market. On a positive note, our markets are performing relatively well. What we're seeing today is the D.C. proper 14th Street corridor outperforming our suburban assets today. A lot of that has to do with the health, biotech, and even the defense national security remaining at the region's list. That's something that's driving some of that demand for us.

While it's been a little bit weaker for us, a little bit below the median, if you will, D.C. is performing for us. We're still around 96.5 to 97% for our portfolio against the market average, and blends are right around that, call it negative 1%, negative 2% today in general.

Thank you. Our next question is from Rich Hightower with Barclays.

Please proceed. Hey, good afternoon, guys.

Just to continue the line of questioning, let's just keep going around the horn. Maybe some anecdotal comments, if you don't mind, on strength in the New York market, and also in the Bay Area. Just what are you seeing kind of on the ground and anything about your expectations in either place?

Yeah, of course. Happy to give some color there. I think first with New York, again, 6% of our NOI. What we're hearing and seeing today is Manhattan's producing the highest growth. I think specific to tech remaining one of the city's strongest growth engines, that's driving a lot of it. We're also seeing wage growth in Manhattan, hovering that 5%-6% range. That's allowing us to lean into some of the renewals and really attract some of that demand. Again, Manhattan's the strongest. The other thing I'd point to is office leasing. Volume hit 9.5 million sq ft in Q2 2026, and that's the strongest quarterly total since 2019. New York's been probably our second-best performing market year-to-date.

Jumping over to the West Coast, what I would tell you is, and it's not going to surprise you, San Francisco is definitely our strongest market in the portfolio. I think that's being led because there's very little supply to speak of across the region. The return to office is definitely helping us out. We're seeing a revitalized shopping, dining experience, and we're also seeing low rent-to-income ratio. Even with rents moving as fast as they are, we have the ability to capture that today because those rents were so depressed from that COVID era. Seeing some strength there. Maybe some of the things that I'm hearing and I'd point to is office leasing is on pace to reach a 30-year high with nearly 6.4 million sq ft leased year-to-date.

Tourism is also strengthening the market, with 2026 visitor spending expected to exceed that pre-pandemic level. Again, it points to the strength of just people returning back to that area. I think there's more room to go here. I think I mentioned it in a previous remark. We're seeing blends of approximately 13%, so very strong growth out of the West Coast as well.

That's great. Thank you. Our next question is from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

Please proceed. Great. Thanks for the time.

Just wanted to ask, I recognize it's been touched on a few different times, maybe just ask you a little bit differently, just on new lease trends, I guess, in the Southeast and Southwest regions specifically. Certainly recognize the supply impacts there and other pressures. Just looking at sort of the sequential move, I think Southeast is roughly flat sequentially. Southwest, I think decelerated a bit sequentially from 1Q. Just wondering on sort of the new lease trend there, then maybe just high level what expectations are for those two regions in the second half.

What I would tell you, when you look at July today, again, we're still working through July, there's not much left. When I look at month-to-date trends, I mentioned the Sun Belt's starting to show some of that momentum, a lot of that is being driven by new lease growth. We have started pushing market rents a little bit. Just to size it, when I think about the Sun Belt new lease growth in the second quarter, we were approximately -7% to -7.5%. Right now, we're probably closer to, call it -5.5% to -6%. That's where you're seeing some of that push. It's too early to tell, we want to see if we can't sustain that through the back half of this leasing season. Today it feels pretty good.

Our next question is from Peter Abramowitz with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed. Yeah, thank you for taking the question.

Just to go back to Mike's comments, I think you said some of the trends in terms of slowing outmigration from some of your markets have been an uplift to demand. Wondering if you could just expand on that a little bit and talk about some of the markets, where people leaving those markets has kind of slowed down the most and where you've seen the most benefit.

Yeah, great question. I'd say probably three that jump out the most when I think about that stat. Boston's down around 8-10%, so we're closer to around 20% of those people moving out. Austin's also down around 8-10%, so that's, I want to say between 15% and 20% today compared to last year. San Francisco is another stat that points to that market still doing relatively well. That's down 5% on a year-over-year basis to around 25% of our move outs leaving the MSA, which again, is down on a year-over-year basis. Those are the three that jump out the most in terms of positive momentum.

All right. Appreciate it. Our next question is from Wes Golladay with Baird.

Please proceed. Hey, good afternoon, everyone.

Can you comment on how the corporate housing program is doing?

Sure. Corporate housing is not necessarily a big piece of our business. We have right around probably 500 to 600 leases today, and it's really spread out across many of our coastal markets. The way that we think about it and the way that we manage it is how much exposure do we have at any given time and throughout the year. We try to keep that to a small book of a business for us because during the COVID era, we definitely were bit a little harder than we would've expected by having too much exposure here. Probably the biggest markets, San Francisco, New York, and maybe it's 1%-2% of our homes that are corporate at this point. Relatively small book of business for us.

Okay. Thank you. Our next question is from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

Please proceed. Thank you. San Francisco, you mentioned stood out from a revenue and lease perspective, I wanted to ask about expenses was up 12% on the same store basis.

Are you seeing cost pressures in this market specifically, or is there some unique dynamic as you lease up this portfolio that would cause these expenses to go up? How much of this is recurring?

Really great question, John, I'll tell you that this one jumped out at us too, and there's more of a unique situation going here. When you look at San Francisco and you see that plus 12% growth there, that's mainly due to a property that went mature during the quarter, and that's that Oakland deal that I mentioned earlier. We had a prior year appeal that was successful that's causing a higher growth rate this year. Aside from that, we're not seeing necessarily elevated expenses in that market. It's more specific to what happened with this given property and the success that we had on taxes.

Great. Thank you. Our next question is from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

Please proceed. Hey, good morning out there.

A question on the debt-for-equity program. Understand that you're winding it down, I guess two parts to that. One, saw that you are making a $50 million mezzanine investment with Carmel, sort of perspective on that. Second is, isn't it a way, if you think about funding development, if you fund a third party developer who takes all the development risk, and then you come in at the end, you earn a coupon along the way, and then you get the project at the end. Isn't there some element of attraction on that?

Hey, Alex, this is Dave. I'll start on the first part. As it relates to the Carmel deal, we have long operated it and will continue to do so. As part of the transaction that was discussed earlier, there was an opportunity to provide the $50 million mezzanine loan. The important part here is that this was a very extensive process. This transaction was in the marketplace for much of last year and into this year. Our commitment on that was made a while ago, whereas the DPE runoff decision was made recently, hence why we're communicating that to you now. Az, you want to take the second part?

Yeah. Alex, it's Tommy. With respect to the program, what I'd characterize is 13 years. The program functioned very highly at the beginning because there was not a lot of competition. What we've seen over the last couple of years is the competitive set of capital and willing to take risk and go deeper into the stack at a price that just doesn't make sense to us. That kind of led to the conclusion that that part of the business cycle has been flooded with capital in a way that is not attractive to us. Why not move our capital to where we can get a higher and better return and pivot more, and if you will, just follow the data and the easier path to success.

I think it's more both a opportunity, but also a discipline around our capital and our risk-adjusted returns that we see.

Thank you, Tom. Our next question is from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho Securities.

Please proceed. Hey, guys. Good morning to you.

Thanks for taking my question. It sounds like clearly New York and San Francisco are doing very well. D.C. may be a bit weaker. I was hoping you'd give a little color on your other large coastal markets like Boston, Seattle, L.A. Things there seem a little weaker. I'm wondering how they're performing versus your forecast and what your expectations are into the back half of the year. And on L.A. specifically, see you added an asset there this past quarter. Just curious on the thinking behind that, given the headlines in L.A. and how you underwrote the IRR or cap rate your IRR on that asset. Thank you. Yeah, I'll start with some of the market performance for some of these others that I haven't mentioned.

I think first of all, maybe starting out west, Seattle remains fundamentally resilient. I'd tell you, it's supported by private sector momentum in technology, biotech, even some of the major East Side employers really driving some of that. While it hasn't been our best performing market across the portfolio, it's still relatively strong. I'd say it's held up well through the leasing season. Maybe jumping over to the East Coast, Boston, I didn't previously speak to, so I'll give you a little color there. Still seeing strong renter demand. Supply is definitely abating, and the elevated home ownership is definitely allowing us to capture some of that renter demand as well.

What I'm seeing in both those markets, Seattle and Boston, is probably a little bit more of a tilt towards the urban core doing better than the suburban. I'd say again, specific to Boston, downtown's drawing from healthcare, education, technology, students, and so it's doing better than those suburban assets in the North Shore, South Shore today. Even with the suburban assets, I think people are seeking more space, so we're seeing elevated traffic come out there. We're seeing that lower relative housing costs, and it's convenient to get to a lot of these Boston employment centers. Boston's still holding up relatively well for us. I think I covered most of the other markets throughout.

I could pivot over to the Santa Monica asset. Regarding that asset, it's a really intriguing asset in a terrific sub-market in Santa Monica. It's a small asset. Mike and team can essentially operate it without staff. That sub-market had been affected by COVID and then supply on a disproportionate basis, but we're intrigued by the upswing that we can participate in as we get our hands on the asset below replacement cost. What we've seen from Mike and the team in the past, as they've taken over assets in the Bay Area and Philadelphia, is an ability to drive outsized growth on both a relative and absolute basis.

That is very helpful. Any color on how you underwrote cap rates, IRR?

As it relates to the yield on that asset, it's a bit depressed given the fact that it's been affected by COVID and new supply. We're underwriting significant burn-off of concessions as well as operational margin synergies as it comes onto our platform.

Okay. Thank you. As a reminder, just star one on your telephone keypad if you would like to re-queue for additional questions.

Our next question is for John Pawlowski with Green Street. Please proceed. Hey, thanks for keeping the call going.

I have a follow-up question on the $50 million mezzanine loan. Please forgive the multi-part question. Can you let me know where it sits in the capital stack from a loan-to-value perspective? I'm confirming that it's secured by the real estate and not the OpCo. Lastly, can you just give a little color, you highlighted Carmel's development capabilities. Are you expecting a big redev where NOI is going to come offline from these parcel properties? Thanks. John, I appreciate the multi question, and we'll forgive you for that.

To get to first. First lien first, this piece of paper second, then equity is the stack. Third, we're going to rehab units on term. Okay. There won't be a degradation of the vacancy. They have experience in turning them pretty darn quickly. We're working with lease maturities on that, and we're debating the finishes as we go and adjusting. The lobby will get a major rework, the pool deck as well, and the amenitization. The Upper West Side's a pretty damn tight market, so we like it.

Okay. From a loan-to-value perspective, where does this loan sit?

I don't have it in front of me. I think you would look at it as 40% to 50%.

Okay, thanks. Our final question is from Alexander Kim with Zelman & Associates.

Please proceed. Hey, everybody. Thanks for taking the time today.

I wanted to drill a little further into your assumptions for same-store revenue growth guidance for the full year. What do you have embedded for bad debt levels in the back half of the year relative to what we saw in the second quarter? Any additional detail on the forecast in mid-single-digit growth for the other income bucket would be appreciated as well.

Sure. I think first and foremost, we've seen a lot of success in the first half of the year as it relates to bad debt, I think a lot of that can be attributed to what I spoke to earlier on that rent roll quality put into place. I think first and foremost, improving that process as it relates to our centralized teams doing more proof of income, ID verification has really made a difference for us. In addition to that, we've been driving up our deposits as well as credit screening. Maybe just a couple of stats around that. Average deposits are up 20%, so we're collecting around $760 versus $640. Credit screening's up 20 points. We're around 730 versus 710. That's made a big difference.

As it relates to the back half, our expectation is we're going to hover in that, call it 99%-99.1% collections, which is consistent and better than we would have expected to start the year, we haven't really adjusted the back half of the year. We want to see how this continues to play out. Maybe more specific to other income, we have seen some success here. We've actually seen success for multiple years on this line item, my expectation is we're still going to be driving around, call it 5%-7% growth across our portfolio, being led by the Sun Belt. We've seen more growth there than we have, say, in the coastal markets, just given the regulatory backdrop.

We're definitely allowing us to drive our revenue growth, and when you compare ourselves, and this is what we do against our peers on a market-by-market basis, we feel good about where we stand currently versus those that are reported in the coastal markets, and we think we're going to compare well against those that will report over the next few days. Overall, I'd expect to continue to see that ±5%-7% growth in that other income line item going forward.

Got it. Appreciate the detail.

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the conference back over to Chairman, President, and CEO, Mr. Toomey, for closing comments.

First, let me just thank you for all your time, interest, and support of UDR. Second, we're always available for a call, email, or anything that it takes to continue our communication with you. With that, take care. Thank you.

This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time, and thank you for your participation.